News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Once Again, the Rally is Too Strong to Trust
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Welcome back! We hope you all had an enjoyable Memorial Day weekend. And, for those of you who are also subscribers to the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity service you certainly got the new trading week started on the right foot. by locking down a 19% gain on your Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X Shares (DUST) position. Like the ETF's description suggests, the fund goes up whenever gold goes down. It just happens to go up by three times as much. SCN EO members got into DUST back on May 8th for around $24.00 a share when John Monroe first saw a big pullback brewing for gold. Monroe decided to take advantage of gold's big pullback today, selling DUST around $28.60. Folks, that's a 19% score in less than three weeks. It doesn't get much better than that. Here's the thing.... it's not like the big short-term gain on the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X Shares is an oddity for the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity. Although most of John Monroe's picks are intended to be long-haul picks, it's only because that's where most of the big money is made. When there's short-term money to be made though, you can bet the SCN EO is capitalizing on those opportunities too. This is the kind of common-sense flexibility that makes the Elite Opportunity service the absolute best stock-picking newsletter out there. Don't take my word for it though - find out how good those guys are for yourself, for free. The SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity is still giving SCN readers a free two-week trial. I don't know how long the test-drive offer is going to be available though, so the sooner you act the better. Here's how, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/ When Will the Bulls Learn? Anyway, the market's fireworks sure got started early this week with all the indices putting some distance between where they ended the day today and the big resistance lines they hurdled on Friday. I know on the surface it looks like the bulls are now "all in", but I'm telling you, there's something not quite right about the way this is all unfurling... at least not yet. Remember what I sometimes say about pacing, and how the market tends not to do it very well? Yeah, well, the rally we've seen materialize over the prior four trading days has once again shown up at an unsustainable pace. This morning's opening bullish gap isn't helping matters either. Between being overbought on top of the gap, the deck is once again stacked against stocks beginning tomorrow. The chart of the S&P 500 tells the tale. We have to like the way the S&P 500 punched through the ceiling around 1900, but other than that, this chart suggests there's more to worry about than to be optimistic about. Yes, one of those worries is still the low VIX, and yes, one of the other worries is still the notable lack of volume we've seen behind the bullishness since early May. There's a third reason to worry about a setback now, however - during this slow, lethargic time of year, stocks can get blown around like a tumbleweed, reversing course just when it looks like it's developed some momentum. Along those same lines - and since we brought it up on Friday - it's worth explaining the Russell 2000 also bumped into some of its key intermediate-term moving average lines today after leaving behind a huge gap this morning. I'm not saying we're going to slip back into a full-blown bear trend. I'm just saying if the rally is to last, it will most likely have to peel back, regroup somewhere around 1880 (for the S&P 500 anyway), and then get back on track. For the Russell 2000, the big line in the sand is the 200-day moving average line, around 1119. Let's just agree to chill out here and let the market do its thing. Any regrouping needing to happen should happen this week. Best of the Best It's been a while (too long) since we've pointed out some of the really great stuff posted at the website, so we're going to make a point of doing so today. In no particular order, here are the must-see commentaries: Think AstraZeneca (AZN) playing hard-to-get was the smart move after Pfizer (PFE) wooed it for weeks? Sure, it's always possible there's something better just around the corner. It's also possible there's nothing around the corner. It's happened before, as James Brumley explains today. Fact is, AstraZeneca's gambit may have backfired for everyone. Odds are good if you're reading this then you've heard of LiveDeal (LIVE). This young startup is one of the few to make a real, legitimate go of the daily-deals movement by putting its focus on being able to give restaurants the ability to offer "on the fly" deals. LIVE shares have been all over the map as the story progressed, but as we all know, the fundamentals win out in the end. Anyway, John Udovich takes a much closer, critical look at the oft-discussed stock, and isn't overwhelmingly impressed. Last but not least, though earnings season is mostly over there are still a handful of Q1 earnings reports worth a look we haven't gotten to yet. One of the biggies is Toll Brothers (TOL), due before the market opens tomorrow. If you want to know what to expect or why it matters, Peter Graham dives into it with this earnings preview. Of course, if you've been reading the newsletter faithfully for the past week and a half then you know tomorrow's Q1 update from Toll Brothers is only a small part of the real estate story here... Real Estate Offers Glimmer of Hope We already knew the real estate/construction bleeding had at least temporarily slowed based on the data we've received over the past several days. Today's batch of real estate number though (the last data for nearly three weeks, by the way), further solidifies the idea of a rebounding real estate market. Specifically, the S&P Case Shiller Index says home prices were 12.4% higher (year over year) in March. At the same time, FHFA says home prices rose 0.7% (month-to-month) in March. Both figures confirm the rebound we saw on other real estate data fronts over the course of the past few days. Just to clarify, the home pricing data we're talking about above was for March while the rest of the data appearing on the chart was through April. It doesn't really change much about the bigger-picture trends though - we're seeing glimmers of hope for real estate. Another strong month would work wonders for confidence in the housing market. It'll be interesting to see if Toll Brothers offers any outlook in addition to its first quarter results. That's all for today. We'll be back tomorrow though, with an update on our four open positions and maybe even a new pick. In the meantime, don't forget the free two-week trial to the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity is still available to SmallCap Network newsletter readers. Just click here.