In
This Edition....
China
Advanced Construction Materials Group, Inc. (CADC), Enzon Pharmaceuticals
Inc., (ENZN), Citigroup (C), ADVENTRX Pharmaceuticals (ANX), and STEC,
Inc. (STEC) are examined in detail this week. Those comments are followed
by this week's feature story 'Industries With New Momentum'.
Highlighted
Commentary
This
isn't all the commentary you'll find on the site since our last
newsletter - this is just what we think is the most important. Like last
time, click on the headline to go straight to the article.
CADC:
Don't Slip Into These Cement Shoes
China
Advanced Construction Materials Group, Inc. (CADC:NASDAQ) - a Chinese
ready mix concrete producer - may be cement shoes for investors, according
to Ken Tudor. Overcapacity in China's cement industry has added 600 million
tons of cement to an existing 1.9 billion tons, which already exceeds the
projected needs of 1.8 billion tons by 2012. Not all hope is lost,
but Tudor feels China Advanced Construction Materials Group may be burdened
until the company (1) retires the $7,000,000 debt to 27 investors that
represents an over 3.5 million share conversion (so these shares can be
offered on the open market), and (2) unwinds insider ownership to increase
the available float.
Break-Out
Performers: ENZN, GSOL, CBPO
Dennis
Askew rates Enzon Pharmaceuticals Inc., (ENZN) as a 'buy' now that the
partnership with Santaris - to develop a Hepatitis C drug - is starting
to throttle the stock. Shareholders, however, are also enjoying how Enzon
(1) sold part of their peripheral business for $300 million to re-focus
on the Company's core business of experimental cancer drugs and technologies
and (2) how the company decided to repurchase up to $50 million of its
common stock.
A
Technical Perspective: Pegging the Citigroup Bottom
Want
to know what to do about Citigroup (C) after this week's sharp dip? John
Monroe makes no bones about what the stock's move to the low $3 area means
to investors. The chartist points out a few technical milestones you may
want to watch for. Specifically, the $2.55 area is a big one. Be sure to
review the commentary for all the important details though.
ADVENTRX
Pharmaceuticals (AMEX:ANX) Rising and Expected to Go Higher
Looking
for a new biotech idea? M.E. Garza's got one. ADVENTRX Pharmaceuticals
(AMEX:ANX) recently presented at Lippert/Heilshorn Life Sciences Conference.
The slideshow the company used at the event has been made available by
Garza at his site; click the link to review the slides (it's good stuff).
In the bigger picture, Garza expects ANX to continue rallying with the
help of a pending submission of an NDA (new drug application) before the
end of the year, and two promising late stage drug trials.
Technology's
Top Picks for 2010: SOLR, TQNT, STEC, HPQ
The
Small Cap Network continues to roll through its lists of top 2010 stocks
picks by sector. The latest entry came this week, with recommendations
of four top technology sector picks. Of the four, STEC, Inc. (NASDAQ:STEC)
is by far the most compelling ... for technical as well as fundamental
reasons. Net margins of 15.3% and a projected P/E of 6.4 are just the beginning
for the bullish case on STEC, Inc. You really need to check these ideas
out.
Technical
Outlooks on Gold, Dollar, GLD, UUP
With
the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE:UUP) rallying, it's no
surprise the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE:GLD) is headed lower. The question
is, how much further will these trends carry their respective funds?
James Brumley answers the question, in addition to providing target levels
for each. Be warned though - he doesn't think either trend is going to
get to its endpoint in a straight line.
Feature:
Industries With New (or Renewed) Momentum
We've
never denied it's the fundamentals that ultimately determine a stock's
price. Money is made or lost, however, by timing entries and exits around
the points in time when a stock isn't properly valued.
In
other words, momentum matters.
Since
you can get the fundamental data for a stock or industry pretty much anywhere,
we want to give you something you can't get anywhere else.... a look at
newly-emerging trends at the industry level. We've added an important criteria
to the mix though - growing volume (since volume determines the longevity
of a trend).
Based
on this analysis, stocks from these particular groups should have the wind
at their back. In fact, these groups may be the few that are able to overcome
a marketwide bearish tide.
Automobiles
Believe
it or not (and you might not) the best-performing industry in 2009 has
been the automobile manufacturing group. These stocks are up more than
200% for the year.
Normally
a move like that would be a tough act to follow, which in turn prevents
more investors from flowing in. In the case of the automakers though, the
big move simply brought the stocks up to reasonable values based on 2010's
earnings. Honda and Ford are both on track to meet the estimates built
into their sub-20 projected P/E ratios. Toyota and Daimler may be as well...
we'll need the current quarter's numbers to know for sure. All four companies,
however, went back in the black within the last two quarters
The
200% gain's not an errant move, nor is it one that overpriced the equities.
Paper
Products
A disastrous
2007 and 2008 for paper product stocks has pretty much been undone in 2009.
Then again, that's the way it should have been. A severe case of overcapacity
and stifling prices has been replaced by a lot of consolidation and pricing
(input and output) that isn't killing everyone in the chain.
The
size of the runup - like the automakers' - may be a little intimidating.
There's still some room for paper stocks to go before reaching 2007's peak,
however. Besides, the supply and demand potential is much better balanced
now than it was then. Topping 2007's highs may not be that hard to do,
particularly if the economic recovery continues to make progress.
Managed
Health Care
Like
so many other groups we've seen lately, the managed health care stocks
are in the midst of a turnaround story. Unlike so many other groups, managed
healthcare's revival (1) still has tons of upside room before resistance
is hit, and (2) the corporate results justify the price appreciation.
The
poster child for this industry and its new trend has got to be Tenet Healthcare,
though all the names in the managed care industry are in the same boat
(for better or worse). Right now, it's for the better - this trend has
some legs.
Publishers
Be
careful here, as the 'publishers' uptrend largely stems from some amazing
gains by newspaper stocks. Though the year-over-year numbers from the likes
of McClatchy (MNI) and Gannett (GCI) are showing tremendous improvements,
bear in mind that the year-ago results were ridiculously low. So, 'better'
is a very relative term in this case.
In
the bigger picture, print is still losing significant revenue to web-based
publishing. It was doing so before the recession, and it will do so long
after the recession. The numbers a year from now should start looking worse
again (compared to 2009's figures).
So
why show the trend at all? Because momentum is momentum, and stranger things
have happened. You just don't want to be stubborn about holding these stocks
- dump the publishers at the first sign of even just mild technical trouble.
That's
it for now, though we'll add, subtract, and update industry trends as needed.
Be sure to keep reading the Small Cap Network newsletter on a regular basis
to remain aware of these important trends,