Is this the one? Is this bullish move actually going to be the one to yank the market out of its rut and into a spring rally? It sure looks like it could be, on the surface, but I have to remind you we've seen this song and dance before to no avail. There are still ways the market could reverse its present course and slip back into sideways mode. I will say this for stocks though... Thursday's action puts the market closer to a breakout than any of the other efforts so far have. There's just one problem I see. Let's talk about that problem last. While it's not the focal point today, just for the sake of continuity let's look at our chart of the S&P 500. As of around the time this is being written, the S&P 500 saw a high of 1896 on Thursday. This is close enough to the ceiling at 1897 for me to say to you the bulls know there's a big resistance line here, are willing to test it, but not yet willing to move above it. Volume was once again modest, but volume has been light for over a month; there aren't many bears ready to put up a fight. So what makes this time around potentially so much better than the prior couple tests of 1897? From a purely technical, stand-alone perspective, not much. This is the third time the 1897 mark has been tested as a ceiling though. The first one on early April didn't end so well, with the S&P 500 pulling back to 1814. The second effort from a week ago, however, ended much better with the index once again finding support at its 50-day moving average line. This time, the S&P 500 only had to start the rally effort a few points below 1897, which means it won't have to start the breakout with an overbought condition. Besides, the third time traders attempt to do something is often the one that works. With all of that being said, the brightest glimmer of hope today was emitted by the NASDAQ Composite. You may recall the NASDAQ had been getting squeezed between a falling resistance line and a rising support line after stabilizing following March's implosion. Well, it's not anymore. Thanks to today's pop the composite has fought its way above the upper ceiling of the wedge shape, suggesting the bulls won the battle. On the flipside, even with the NASDAQ's advance it was still halted at the upper 20-day Bollinger band, right at 4163. This could have been expected, however. The real test begins here - will the composite push through the Bollinger band and forge ahead, or will the upper band line once again repel the effort? It could still go either way. Had the S&P 500 not paused at its known resistance level on Thursday, we might be a little more optimistic about the NASDAQ. It's just suspicious how both were capped at fairly significant levels today. Adding to this suspicion is the way the Russell 2000's rally was also halted at a key level on Thursday... the 200-day moving average line (green). It's worth noting the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index found a floor again at 1082, just like it did in February. It appears the bulls have drawn a line in the sand there. What the bulls have not done yet, however, is shake the Russell 2000 out its bearish trend. It's close though. The 200-day moving average line at 1117 and the falling resistance line currently at 1119 could both be cleared with just one more good session. While none of the major market indices are over their biggest technical hurdles yet, all of them are one day away from clearing those hurdles. It could happen tomorrow, although it should be mentioned it may not happen for months, and then only after a major setback. The bottom line is, this is crunch-time for the market. The next couple of trading days are going to be interesting no matter what. Have patience. If this brewing bullishness is the real deal, then we can afford to wait a day or two just to be sure. Oh, and our "problem" is still the stunningly low VXN and VIX. We've gone on and on about both ad nauseam for a while though, so we're not going to preach the sermon again today. Housing Stops the Bleeding, But Still Not Healing Last week when we got April's housing starts and building permits numbers, there was a glimmer of hope for the real estate and construction market. The data was only a small part of April's updated look at housing though. We were slated for two more big doses of data this week, with one of them being today's existing-home sales figure. It was ... just ok. Last month, existing homes sold at a pace of 4.65 million. This is up a little from March's pace of 4.59 million, but it's still off from the much bigger numbers we were seeing through the middle of last year. However, we may - and we stress 'may' - be through the worst of the lull. We'd really need to see another month's worth of existing home sales data before jumping to any conclusions. We won't have to wait until next month to get a more detailed look at the current condition of the real estate market, however. Tomorrow we'll get last month's new home sales figure, which hasn't been particularly impressive of late either. That report will also tell us what kind of prices homes are bringing, which has been getting modestly stronger even with the sheer number of sales slumping over the past few months. I still say the housing market, like the stock market, could go either way from here. News due in the next few days should shed some light on my outlook. New Pick "On the fence" isn't exactly the kind of environment in which we'd normally take on a new trade. But, biopharma names aren't normal stocks. They trade rather independently of the broad market, which makes them less seasonal and far more company-specific than picks you'll find any other industry. Translation: I don't mind taking on a new risk here, as long as you don't mind it being much more of a speculative trade instead of an actual investment. We'll skip with the teaser part and get right to the point - we're adding ANI Pharmaceuticals (ANIP) to our hypothetical portfolio where it will join Cloud Peak Energy (CLD) and Genesco (GCO). If you've never heard of ANI Pharmaceuticals, the story is actually a pretty simple one. ANIP is a contact manufacturer of specialty pharmaceuticals. It's not a bad business to be in. The company doesn't burn or make a ton of money by developing a drug, but it makes good money by getting its hands dirty doing what other biopharma names can't or don't want to do - physically making the drugs they sell. It's not as sexy as cancer-drug development breakthroughs, but it's got teeth. What I really like about the business model is how it's scalable. The equipment, know-how and manufacturing capacity are in place whether ANI is making one drug or 100; the company may as well use it. The proverbial trick, therefore, is adding new drugs/clients and building its revenue base over time. There's a lot of recurring revenue here largely because once a customer gets comfortable with ANI Pharmaceuticals as the supplier, it's just too much trouble to fire ANIP and find another source. More important to us right now, ANI Pharmaceuticals has quietly been doing exactly what it needs to do - adding customers while it sticks to its knitting. Revenue grew from $20 million in 2012 to $30 million in 2013 and is projected to hit $53 million this year. So why in the world isn't the market all over ANIP? I've got a couple of theories, the most likely of which is, it's just not a very sexy company compared to other players in the same space. The second possible reason ANI Pharmaceuticals is being overlooked is the company isn't profitable. This is where things get fun. While ANIP may not be profitable on a trailing twelve month basis, it actually swung to a profit three quarters ago and has continued to widen its net margins ever since. A lot of traders may not recognize this because the loss from four quarters ago is still bigger than the cumulative profits that kicked in starting three quarters ago. But, one more good quarter, and I suspect the market is going to have an "aha" moment and realize this company has been on a growth trajectory for quite some time. THAT'S when traders should start to plow in. As for just how undervalued the stock is, the forward-looking P/E is only 15.11 (average for the market, below average for the company's growth rate). And, I've got a lot of confidence ANI's sales and earnings are going to roll in at least as well as expected. With all of that on the table, I do think the market is at least starting to catch on to ANI Pharmaceuticals. The stock perked up in mid-2013, running from less than $8.00 to a peak of $38.74 in early March. Since then the stock's gone nowhere, presumably from buying fatigue. The lull, however, looks to me like an entry opportunity. The deep low and quick rebound from early April should have washed off any dead weight, and ever since then the bulls have been testing the waters of higher highs. Again, it's not the kind of pick you'd want to recommend to your retired, widowed grandmother; there's some risk to it. I've just got a feeling this one could be something of a Cinderella story for 2014.