Looks like the bulls just weren't able to go seven for seven. Still, a solid six-day gain for stocks left the market knocking on the door of a major technical ceiling. Better still, past that line are new record highs. So, while this is an exciting time, it's also a tense time just because traders are torn here... the market's hesitant to tiptoe into new-high territory, but traders are also ready to pounce at the first sign of a breakout. We'll detail the psychological tug-of-war in a moment. Let's first update our real estate trend chart with this morning's new data, which - bluntly - confirmed our worst suspicions. It's Confirmed - Real Estate is Bogged Down You may have seen it, but you haven't seen it in the bigger-picture context we paint the picture with, so you haven't actually seen anything yet. What I'm talking about is last month's new-home sales data. It was unveiled today, and it was... not good. Rather than rolling in at the expected annual pace of 455,000, homebuyers only purchased newly-constructed residences at a pace of 384,000 in March, That's the slowest rate since mid-2013, and that mid-2013 lull was a temporary stumble. The last time we saw annualized new-home sales rates in the upper 300's was in late 2012, and they were on the way up then. Were it just one tough month for new-home sales, it might not even be worth mentioning. Heck, the weather - completely out of anyone's control - can cause one bad month for construction. The weather wasn't unusually bad in March though, and there have been several recent red flags besides new-home sales regarding the real estate market. One of those other budding worries is dwindling sales of existing homes. Another is the slowing pace of home price increases. Yet another is the waning number of starts and permits. In light of those weakening trends, it's no real surprise (or shouldn't have been a surprise anyway) that new-home sales were lousy last month. Take a look at our updated real estate activity chart; it tells the story. We still have the pending home sales figure and the Case-Shiller Index on tap for next week. Honestly though, I don't see either one of those changing the current state of the real estate market. None of this is to say we're heading into a 2008-like implosion of the housing market. But, I think we can broadly conclude the real estate market is finally starting to struggle under the weight of the progress it made between 2010 and 2013. From here, it's going to be a lot tougher for homebuilders and the like to hammer out progress. Bingo! (almost) Remember how we've been watching and waiting for the coal industry's stocks - as a group - to get over a technical hump and get all the way into a bullish groove? Yeah, well, today was a HUGE day on that front. Oh, the move itself wasn't that huge; the Dow Jones Coal Index advanced about 1.5% on Wednesday. But, that move combined with the index's recent bullish action means the group cleared a key hurdle today. Specifically, the Dow Jones Coal Index closed above a technical ceiling at 139.0 on Wednesday, with its close of 139.36. So we're full-on bullish here? No, not quite yet. Don't get me wrong - this was a huge confirmation that the market's interested in coal again. There are just a couple more things I'd like to see happen first before committing actual or hypothetical capital to coal stocks. The biggest of those requisites is the Dow Jones Coal Index slipping back under 139.0, and then moving back above it again. That'll ensure the buyers are for real here. The odds are looking pretty good so far, however. There's a potential plot twist to the coal breakout that could force the issue too. Tomorrow, before the market opens, Peabody Energy (BTU) will be releasing last quarter's earnings. Being one of the "majors", investors are likely to look at it and draw conclusions about its coal peers. I don't even think last quarter's results are going to be deemed all that important. I suspect the market's going to be most interested in whatever it can glean about the company's outlook for coal. That message could make or break the rebound from the coal industry's stocks. The conference call will take place at 10:00 am EST. I won't be able to be on it, but I'm sure the core ideas from the call will be out there in the ether pretty quickly. My prediction: I've got a feeling Peabody is going to say something encouraging, and put this rally effort into high gear. I just hope it doesn't soar out of control right out of the gate. The Rally Takes a Smart Breather Gotta be honest.... I'm glad the market didn't forge ahead and blast past (at least for the Dow and the S&P 500) its key resistance levels today. If they had, while it would have been exciting and probably bullish for a short while, it would have also been a flimsy breakout, and short-lived. Better to start out by building a solid technical base from which a longer-term rally can be launched than hurdling uncontrollably above technical ceilings. As long as the S&P 500 doesn't dip below the floor forming around 1858, it can take all the time it needs to here to build up some steam. For the Dow, the floor we don't want it to move under is right around 16,300, and the ceiling we don't want it to cross above just yet is 16,576, give or take. It just needs to consolidate for a while in between those lines before staging a breakout effort. If it can build up some pressure and establish a technical base, the launch will be a much healthier one. That's a very big "if" though, for both indices. As for the NASDAQ, although it's interesting right now, it's not telling in the sense that we can use it to make a prediction or establish any if-then scenarios. We'll leave it alone for the time being. Besides, between Facebook (FB) and Apple (AAPL) both posting solid Q1 earnings on Wednesday evening, the NASDAQ could really be skewed come Thursday. The bottom line is - with or without the NASDAQ in the picture - we're mentally on hold here, and relatively glad to be so. If we can get a few days of buildup now before the next bullish leg, we could see a pretty bullish May before we get into the "sell in May and go away" lull. One day at a time, however.