Hello folks. As expected, today's (Thursday's) action was on the lethargic side, though we ended up getting the bullishness I was hoping we wouldn't get. Now we're going to come back from the long weekend with stocks a little overbought, and a lot of traders waiting on the sidelines for the proverbial "other guy" to make the first move. Had we pulled back a little bit today, we probably would have come back at the beginning of next with either the bulls taking a convincing hold right off the bat or the bears taking a convincing hold right off the bat. Now all we have is a market on the fence.
Our usual chart of the S&P 500 illustrates all of this. The index put a little more distance between itself and its two key short-term moving average lines, but it was a half-hearted effort. On the other hand, the volume behind today's forward push was not only strong, but it was very high considering this was the last day before a long weekend.
So now what? We have to be scientific and unbiased about how we see the market's momentum, which means we're technically in the bullish camp now. Yet, we also have to acknowledge there's still something we can't quite fully trust about the current budding rally. Stocks have stopped and turned on a dime several times since late March (though mostly at the Bollinger bands), and it could easily happen again.
With all of that being said, I can't stress enough that unless the S&P 500 pulls back under the recent low of 1815, a pullback is nothing more than a little volatility. I'm still expecting the S&P 500 to pull back under the two short-term moving average lines around 1855 sometime in the near future, but that will only be the market's natural ebb and flow unless we slip under 1815.
Anyway, to answer the more burning question, we're still leaning bullishly overall., based on a chart of the NASDAQ Composite that I'm a little ashamed to tell you I hadn't noticed until today.
I normally don't look at longer-term technical indicators, not because they're not important, but because the bulk of our daily focus is on the short-term indicators and I don't like to show you guys charts that are needlessly crowded with lines. I just happened to catch a chart of the NASDAQ Composite in relation to its 200-day moving average line, however, and saw that the reversal/pivot from Tuesday was largely sparked by the near-perfect kiss of the 200-day moving average line. Take a look.
For those of you that have been doing this - trading - for a while, you'll likely know the 200-day moving average line is the grand-daddy of all technical indicators. To see the bears change their mind right there isn't likely to be a coincidence.
As was the case with the S&P 500, I'm not suggesting the composite going to keep rising in a perfect straight line. I've got a feeling, in fact, we'll see the bears growl a couple of times before the bigger rally gets back into high gear. As long as the 200-day moving average line holds up as a floor and the S&P 500's 1815 line holds up as a floor, however, we'll continue giving the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. We're still not going to get wildly bullish until the S&P 500 starts to trend above the 1895 level though.
There are no new updates for the earnings scoreboard, but check back on Monday. Standard & Poor's should have the marketwide data updated by then.
You Gotta See This
It's been a couple of days since I pointed out to you some of the website's best new stuff. My bad. I have to make up for it here because there's too much great commentary to put off until next week - I don't want you or I to forget about it.
For you gold bugs out there, Chris Vermeulen makes a no-bones-about-it call on the commodity with his "Gold Forecast - This Is Going To Be Exciting". If you know you want to trade it but want to get a firm grip on timing the entry or how long you should hold it, Chris has a tip or two for you.
James Brumley sorta raised a name from the dead today..... Garmin (GRMN). Yes, the company that makes global positioning equipment. Neither the company nor the stock has been relevant since 2008 when the iPhone started to perform the same basic function as a GPS, which started to crimp sales and profits. The company may have finally found its place in the GPS world though, as Brumley explains in "Surprise! Garmin Isn't Dead After All."
Finally, John Udovich takes a look at three marijuana stocks that haven't been recently halted by the SEC... Tranzbyte (ERBB), Cannabis Science (CBIS), and Medical Marijuana (MJNA). If you've been out of the marijuana stock loop for the last few days, John can get you up to speed on the big news pretty quickly. Just bear in mind that just because some names haven't been frozen by the SEC yet doesn't mean they're fault-free.
There's a bunch of other great new stuff at the site too, but those three items will get you started.
That's it for today, and the week. We'll talk to you Monday.