How was everyone's Thursday? Good, we hope. It wasn't a particularly good one for the market. In fact, it was particularly bad for stocks today. The bulls took their shot, but it was a weak one, not even giving the market a chance to test the ceilings we had in mind before dipping into the red ink. The thing is, today's relatively modest loss looks like the straw that broke the camel's back.
Above all else, the S&P 500 closed under it key 100-day moving average line at 1914 today, hitting a new multi-week low in the process. It wasn't a dramatic breakdown, but it didn't have to be dramatic to be damaging. Even though the volume behind the dip was light, the market just crossed a line. The VIX also put some renewed pressure on its resistance at 17.2. While there's always a possibility something could pull the market's fat out of the fire, the possibility is already remote, and getting further and further away.
As alarming as the S&P 500's chart looks, the NASDAQ Composite's chart may be even scarier.
Although the NASDAQ is still nowhere near breaking under its 100-day moving average line at 4260, it's quite clear the 50-day moving average line (purple) at 4376 has turned into a ceiling. Yesterday's high carried the index no higher than that mark, and today's high was also no better than the 50-day average. In fact, it looks like the bump into the 50-day average line this morning could have been the reason for the pullback.
It's also worth adding the NASDAQ's Volatility Index (VXN) made its highest close in weeks today, underscoring the market's bearish undertow.
As much as I would like to be able to tell you stocks have hit their low and are going to move nowhere but up from here, it's better to tell you a truth you may not want to hear than blow smoke and end up steering you wrong. There's an equally important truth we want to add to the message today, however - this is NOT the beginning of a bear market. This is just a correction that may feel a little uncomfortable at the time, but will ultimately be a long-term buying opportunity.
Just for the record though, I seriously doubt stocks are going to race directly to their eventual low point. I see a couple more rather convincing bounces materializing before we hit bottom. Just be careful not to get lured in by them. If they're really the beginning of a sustained recovery, we'll know in plenty of time to do something about it.
Anyway, a thought occurred to me in between the time I was reading this afternoon's edition of the Elite Opportunity newsletter and preparing to write the end-of-day SmallCap Network newsletter (the one you're reading now) - as much as we all tend to not want to do much of anything in the way of getting advice when the market's imploding, that's actually the time you need good advice the most.
While we make a point of keeping this newsletter completely separate from the Elite Opportunity service, it's tough not to chat with John Monroe and his team about the market, stocks, life, and even what's going on with our respective publications. And, there's one thing his side of the table as well as my side of the table have noticed... when the market starts to tank, interest in trading and any discussion of market trends tends to take a nosedive.
We can chalk some of that up to folks just wanting to stick their head in the sand and pretend it's not happening; they'll start being proactive and engaged again after the meltdown is offer. As for our readership though [and bear in mind we have a much more sophisticated audience than average], John and I agree our people simply think there's not much point in doing anything because there's no actual opportunity when the market's in a freefall.
We get it, but we don't agree wit the rationale. While there may not be any individual stock-picking opportunities worth worrying about in a down market, there is an opportunity in the form of (1) leveraged bearish index trading, and more important to us, (2) spotting "the" bottom.
I know we as investors aren't supposed to time the market, buying at what looks like a bottom and selling at what looks like a top. I'll let you in on a little secret about that... the axiom is only being said by people who can't call the bottom or the top. I liken it to people who say it's not whether you win or lose, but how you play the game. It's a convenient idea for them because they're often the one who lost the game. The reality is, it is possible to call the market's major tops and bottoms, and more important to everyone - even long-term investors - doing so can beef up your bottom line. The trick is finding the right tool and/or person to help you spot the market's turning points.
Well folks, I don't mind reminding you the Elite Opportunity team is about as good as it gets when it comes to market timing. John Monroe pegged a major ceiling for the S&P 500 between 1976 and 2000 a year ago, and he reiterated his call several times in June and July. Care to guess where the index peaked before this pullback materialized? At 1991.4. It's almost creepy how good he is.
The things is, it's not the first time we've seen this kind of trading precision from the Elite Opportunity service. We see it all the time from the EO.
We totally understand how easy it is to just ball up when the market is falling apart, and we get the decision to simply do nothing in times like this. It's doubly difficult in late summer when the weather is good and people are getting in their last-minute summer fun before school starts. I'm telling you though, this scenario is exactly when and why you need a qualified second opinion like the one John Monroe can provide for you. While most of the media's talking heads and so-called pundits are freaking out or seem like a dear caught in headlights, the Elite Opportunity is calm, cool, and collected, already talking about downside targets to use as re-entry points. It's like a breath of fresh air for investors who need a plan rather than hysterical stories.
And yes, you can even still get a free two-week trial to the EO service... for the time being anyway. It may well be the best thing you've done for your portfolio all year. Here's what you need to know , or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/