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CGYV: Somebody Knows Somethin'
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

CGYV: Somebody Knows Somethin' I had no intention of writing a newsletter today, but sometimes when things pop up, you have to pass 'em along. Today's one of those days.  Did everybody see what happened with China Energy Recovery (OTCBB: CGYV) today? It was up big, as in double digits. That's a pretty big deal in itself, but that's not even the whole story. The big story is the kind of volume that accompanied the big move.  In fact, today was the highest volume day we've seen since we started covering the company... and it was almost all on the buy side. Just for perspective, close to a half a million shares traded hands by the time the closing bell rang. Over the prior 40 trading days (our coverage span), the average daily volume has been about 81,000 shares.  More than six times the average volume, on the same day the stock makes a huge push? More than that, it occurred seemingly out of nowhere. China Energy had been basically flat since Mid-October, content to simply move sideways even though the news from the company was good. And now all of a sudden the market gets on its collective horse (or bull, as the case may be)? I can only come to one conclusion...  Somebody knows somethin' about China Energy Recovery.  Since there's no news to inspire the rally, the details of the tape lead me to think this is either institutional-buying, or the equivalent 'smart money' buying. There are two reasons for the theory.  The first reason is simply that more than a quarter of a million bucks worth of shares were transacted over the span of about 10 minutes.... and only in five individual ticks (individual transactions).  My initial thought at the beginning of today's dip was a couple of the major owners (two funds) were still in selling mode, and simply decided today would be the day to get out of a few more shares than usual. And, they may have done so. The thing is, for every seller there's a buyer, and there appears to have been a buyer or two of those very same shares - any major selling was more than countered with a strong but compacted buying effort.  See, large block trades typically indicate a serious buyer is taking a major position. There's a possibility it was a group effort from several individual traders, but it looks to me like there was at least one big player buying into any shares he could find. My question is, why? What do they know that's not evident yet? More often than not these moves aren't coincidences.  The second reason I think this is institutional-level interest is the way the whole buy-in took place. Whoever did it looks like they knew how to slide in under the radar, keep the price relatively low during the buy, and end up taking on a pretty good chunk of the float before sounding any bullish alarm bells. The nearby one minute chart really shows you what I mean.  In short, these guys were ready to buy at a price of 90 cents, most of which were added between 11:17 am and 11:18 am EST. However, take a look at what happened in the few minutes before and after the big transaction. We saw what looked like a high-volume selloff right before 11:17 am, but it ended up only being a modest dip before the bigger fish came in and started scooping shares up. They managed to find an ask of 90 cents to 93 cents for several minutes. Then when the stock broke above $1.01, the buyers wisely faded out.  The point is, whoever was getting in knew exactly how to do it advantageously, and they were disciplined enough to not chase it on the rebound.  There are some traders that might look at the same chart and suggest this could have just as easily been a big seller getting out of a position. Like I said above, we know there were a couple of major owners who were likely getting out, so today's action may well have begun on the selling side of the table. However, if the sellers had outnumbered the buyers on a net basis, CGYV wouldn't have found a market at 90 cents (or higher) after the dip and proceeded to move above $1.25. No, this was ultimately a buyer or buyers at work.  Either way, any big sellers appear to now be out of the way, and the baton has been passed to the buyers.  So now what? In my experience, big guns like this usually don't settle for a relatively small position (a quarter of a million bucks may be big for us, but it's small to a fund). They tend to phase into stocks as they can. So, I think there's a very good chance we'll see this fund or other money managers - and now individuals - follow suit. Each instance is another opportunity for a rally. Needless to say, I think CGYV may finally be getting 'found' and valued appropriately. It was bound to happen sometime.  Volume aside, the rally alone is enough of a compelling argument for me to renew my trade suggestion to you.  The move above the 10 and 20 day moving averages is a technical indication that momentum has shifted bullishly. Yet, I still see an enormous amount of room for more upside movement. Remember, our suggested target is $6.00, which is more than 300% above current levels.  I'll see if I can find out exactly what's going on today, but frankly, I think by the time I find out, the bulk of any potential gain for the stock will be behind us rather than in front of us. So, if you're interested at all (and I hope you are after today), I don't think now's the time to be on the sidelines. We're already at multi-week highs, and I don't want anybody to miss any more of the possible upside of China Energy Recovery shares.