CGYV:
Somebody Knows Somethin'
I
had no intention of writing a newsletter today, but sometimes when things
pop up, you have to pass 'em along. Today's one of those days.
Did
everybody see what happened with China
Energy Recovery (OTCBB: CGYV) today? It was up big, as in
double digits. That's a pretty big deal in itself, but that's not even
the whole story. The big story is the kind of volume that accompanied
the big move.
In
fact, today was the highest volume day we've seen since we started covering
the company... and it was almost all on the buy side. Just for
perspective, close to a half a million shares traded hands by the time
the closing bell rang. Over the prior 40 trading days (our coverage span),
the average daily volume has been about 81,000 shares.
More
than six times the average volume, on the same day the stock makes a huge
push? More than that, it occurred seemingly out of nowhere. China Energy
had been basically flat since Mid-October, content to simply move sideways
even though the news from the company was good. And now all of a sudden
the market gets on its collective horse (or bull, as the case may be)?
I can only come to one conclusion...
Somebody
knows somethin' about China Energy Recovery.
Since
there's no news to inspire the rally, the details of the tape lead me to
think this is either institutional-buying, or the equivalent 'smart
money' buying. There are two reasons for the theory.
The
first
reason is simply that more than a quarter of a million bucks worth of shares
were transacted over the span of about 10 minutes.... and only in five
individual ticks (individual transactions).
My
initial thought at the beginning of today's dip was a couple of the major
owners (two funds) were still in selling mode, and simply decided today
would be the day to get out of a few more shares than usual. And, they
may have done so. The thing is, for every seller there's a buyer, and
there appears to have been a buyer or two of those very same shares - any
major selling was more than countered with a strong but compacted
buying effort.
See,
large
block trades typically indicate a serious buyer is taking a major position.
There's a possibility it was a group effort from several individual
traders, but it looks to me like there was at least one big player buying
into any shares he could find. My question is, why? What do they
know that's not evident yet? More often than not these moves aren't
coincidences.
The
second
reason I think this is institutional-level interest is the way the whole
buy-in took place. Whoever did it looks like they knew how to slide in
under the radar, keep the price relatively low during the buy, and
end up taking on a pretty good chunk of the float before sounding any bullish
alarm bells. The nearby one minute chart really shows you what I mean.
In
short, these guys were ready to buy at a price of 90 cents, most
of which were added between 11:17 am and 11:18 am EST. However, take a
look at what happened in the few minutes before and after
the big transaction. We saw what looked like a high-volume selloff right
before 11:17 am, but it ended up only being a modest dip before the bigger
fish came in and started scooping shares up. They managed to find an ask
of 90 cents to 93 cents for several minutes. Then when the stock
broke above $1.01, the buyers wisely faded out.
The
point is, whoever was getting in knew exactly how to do it advantageously,
and they were disciplined enough to not chase it on the rebound.
There
are some traders that might look at the same chart and suggest this could
have just as easily been a big seller getting out of a position. Like I
said above, we know there were a couple of major owners who were
likely getting out, so today's action may well have begun on the
selling side of the table. However, if the sellers had outnumbered the
buyers on a net basis, CGYV wouldn't have found a market at 90 cents
(or higher) after the dip and proceeded to move above $1.25. No, this
was ultimately a buyer or buyers at work.
Either
way, any big sellers appear to now be out of the way, and the baton has
been passed to the buyers.
So
now what? In my experience, big guns like this usually don't settle
for a relatively small position (a quarter of a million bucks may be big
for us, but it's small to a fund). They tend to phase into stocks as they
can. So, I think there's a very good chance we'll see this fund or other
money managers - and now individuals - follow suit. Each instance is another
opportunity for a rally. Needless to say, I think CGYV may finally be
getting 'found' and valued appropriately. It was bound to happen sometime.
Volume
aside,
the rally alone is enough of a compelling argument for me to renew my trade
suggestion to you.
The
move above the 10 and 20 day moving averages is a technical indication
that momentum has shifted bullishly. Yet, I still see an enormous amount
of room for more upside movement. Remember, our suggested target is $6.00,
which is more than 300% above current levels.
I'll
see if I can find out exactly what's going on today, but frankly, I think
by the time I find out, the bulk of any potential gain for the stock will
be behind us rather than in front of us. So, if you're interested
at all (and I hope you are after today), I don't think now's
the time to be on the sidelines. We're already at multi-week highs,
and I don't want anybody to miss any more of the possible upside of China
Energy Recovery shares.