In
This Edition...
Opexa
Therapeutics (OPXA), Shuffle Master (SHFL), Cardium Therapeutics (CXM),
RXI Pharmaceuticals (RXII), Elizabeth Arden (RDEN), and Zhone Technologies
(ZHNE) undergo analysis. Then, we want to revisit our bullish call on telecom
from December 10th; things may or may not be as bad as they seem.
Stocks
in Focus
Technical
Reviews of RMIX, KAD, and ZHNE
The
bad
news is, Zhone Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:ZHNE) is not likely to keep
climbing as fast as it has been over the past two weeks. The good
news is, at least ZHNE will be able to keep climbing at a sustainable pace.
That's the shape of things according to James Brumley anyway. Check it
out.
Break-Out
Performers: RDEN, VIRL, ABBC
Last
year's purchase of Liz Claiborne's fragrance portfolio has certainly paid
dividends for Elizabeth Arden Inc., (NASDAQ:RDEN), and more costs savings
are on the way. That's good enough for Dennis Askew to advise buying RDEN
on the dips (which have been few and far between in recent months).
RXI
Pharmaceuticals to Continue Upward
M.E.
Garza doesn't mince any words with his outlook on RXI Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:RXII).
He says the whispers of potential partnerships have been confirmed by the
company. Though no details have been offered yet, one of the upcoming possibilities
is a partial acquisition of RXI shares. Needless to say, that bodes well
for current owners. Take a look.
Chart
Forecasts for MNKD, ACHN, and CXM
Cardium
Therapeutics Inc. (AMEX:CXM) has already posted some pretty solid gains
over the past three weeks. As of Friday though, the last hurdle is in sight.
If knocked over as well, James Brumley thinks CXM could really start to
accelerate. This one is a potential triple-digit idea.
High
Flyers: HPJ, ICGE, SHFL
With
Las Vegas seeing a modest uptick in tourism traffic in November, and Macau
seeing improving traffic in the second half of last year, it may be time
to bet on gambling stocks again. To that end, Dennis Askew likes Shuffle
Master Inc. (NASDAQ:SHFL), calling it a 'buy' at its current price. The
company beat EPS estimates last quarter, netting 12 cents versus the expected
9 cents.
Chart
Outlooks: TRID, ISCR, OPXA
Opexa
Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:OPXA) looks like it could be one of the next
big breakout stocks. James Brumley notes that that the slow pullback in
the last months of last year has transitioned into higher highs over the
last few weeks. The icing in the cake was Friday's high-volume gain in
the face of a bearish tide. It's a very telling chart, from a distance.
Telecom
Reality Check
You
may recall that I'm particularly bullish on telecom for 2010 - a message
I sent pretty clearly back in a December
10th write-up as part of my 'best of' sector outlooks for the
year. And, I'm sure you'll know that the telecom sector has been
trashed over the last two weeks - the Dow Jones Telecommunications Index
is down 6.3% since the beginning of the year.
Needless
to say, that's not a great way to kick off a new year, mentally or
financially.
Funny
thing though..... had I dug a little deeper (like I did when I was doing
the initial research for my top-four telecom picks for 2010), I would
have noticed something that's actually encouraging rather than discouraging.
Take
a look at the nearby percentage-change chart. See anything peculiar?
It's not unusual to see some degree if intra-sector disparity. ItIS
unusual to see this much of it in just a two-week timeframe.
What's
going on to cause it though? Two words.... AT&T (T), and Verizon
(VZ). That's not to imply that other telecom stocks haven't been headed
lower - they have been. The bulk of the loss has been spearheaded
by those two telecom behemoths though, and the pain was augmented by the
fact that most indices (including the Dow Jones and S&P indices)
are
- you guessed it - market cap weighted.
The
other wrench in the works is that AT&T as well as Verizon each
have big wireless operations, further blurring a line that's clearly better
left unblurred.
Had
I been watching that intra-sector chart the way I would normally want to,
I probably wouldn't have given telecom's recent pullback a second thought.
When I get busy though (as we all do), it's easy to get sloppy and
start generalizing (as we all have). I'm glad I took a few seconds
to take this closer look though.
Now,
I bring this up to you today for a few reasons.
First
and foremost, I just think it's important to understand what's really going
on with a sector before you make an investing decision about it... particularly
one you may have made because of something you found on this site. While
I'm still bullish on telecom (a 6.3% loss really isn't all that much
for a full-year call), that dip likely approaches the point where many
of you would start to think about pulling the plug for a while.
I also
bring it up to point out the downside of an exchange-traded fund like the
Telecom HOLDRs Fund (TTH), or one of the other so-called 'basket of telecom
stocks'. I'm willing to bet those ETFs are getting beaten up pretty well
too, since they're also cap-weighted. I love ETFs as much as the
next guy, but sometimes - like now - the ETF doesn't give you enough
of the right stocks, and too much of the wrong ones.
Another
reason to mention all of this is to update you on the four stocks I specifically
names a little over a month ago.
Not
that any stock is able to fully withstand the bigger sector tide,
but I can't complain either - we're doing better than average. (My picks
are the ones marked with thicker lines and a bigger font for the ticker.
The tickers from top-to-bottom are the performance rankings from best to
worst since December 10th.)
With
the exception of MetroPCS (PCS), all our picks have fared better than average,
and even PCS is looking like it started a rebound on Friday. The only non-pick
regret I have is not selecting Clearwire (CLWR). On the other hand, CLWR
also looks like its starting to gain a lot of bearish momentum. So, we're
pretty much where I'd like to be.
No,
none of my picks have gone straight up, but I never expected them to. The
market and sector ebb and flow is going to push any of these stocks up
and down. My only goal is to find names that don't fall as far during
the pullbacks, and rally better during the strong phases. After
this first real test, I think that's basically what we've seen happen with
my four selections.
Anyway,
there's just some food for thought before jumping to any conclusions about
my stocks, or any stocks in the industry.
By
the way, I still feel strongly about telecom in general for 2010, and view
the current dip as a chance to start wading into these names. Buy 'em
when nobody wants 'em.... even the ones I didn't specifically pick.