News Details – Smallcapnetwork
The Bears Finally Growled. Do the Bulls Need to Worry?
/

February 2, 2024

/

PDT

Well, there certainly aren't too many ways to interpret Thursday's beat-down. The February rally was already hanging by a thread, but any lingering hope would have been wiped away by today's strong selling. It's not the size of the selloff that should have you a little worried, however. Heck, after a day like today, we can probably even expect something of a dead-cat bounce on Friday or Monday. Such a bounce is likely to be short-lived, however, because of the technical damage done to the market indices on Thursday. We'll stick with our usual analysis of the S&P 500 to make our key points, though the NASDAQ and the Dow pretty much tell the same story. And that story is, the S&P 500 broke under a key level around 1849 today, as well as broke under its 20-day moving average line at 1853.7. It's not just the S&P 500's breakdown that has us singing a slightly-bearish song here, however. The VIX also poked above its upper Bolllnger band, telling us traders are finally getting truly worried. And, with today's high volume behind the selloff, we can say with some confidence that Thursday's action was a good reflection of the current majority opinion. If it all seems vaguely familiar, you only have to look back to late-January to see why. This is a lot like the way that pullback started. In fact, I'm willing to bet what we see from here is going to be pretty close to how things panned out in January. With all of that being said, I can't stress enough how corrections and stumbles are normal, and rarely do they end a bull market. I don't think any stumble we're seeing now - if this one continues to develop - is going to be something long-term investors need to sweat. Of the more likely potential outcomes here, I really do think a repeat of January's dip is the worst of the bunch. That only ended up being about a 6.0% selloff, which is more than survivable. Bottom line? Right now it looks like the rally's broken, and even if we get some "up" on Friday, it'll take a lot more convincing than that to point our mental compass in a bullish direction again. Still, let's just take things one day at a time. There's a lot of potential support around 1825 the bears are going to have to dance with real soon if they're serious about selling stocks here. In Other News... As we mentioned to you in yesterday's newsletter, Genesco (GCO) - one of the positions in our pretend portfolio - was due to report last quarter's results this morning. Well, they weren't really all that great. The company missed estimates by 11 cents, and fell short on revenue too. The fourth quarter earnings total of $2.07 per share was shy of the expected $2.18, while revenues fell 0.5% year-over-year... to $793 million versus the $802.93 million consensus. Yet, the stock spent most of the day in the black, even if "just barely." What gives? It's something we talk about from time to time, but bears repeating now... most of the time, the collective market knows when a company is likely to fall short of, or beat, estimates. I suspect Genesco is one of those names where the shortfall was already priced into the stock. Anything better than "not very good" was going to be seen as a positive. Either way, the company's guidance for fiscal 2015 was per-share income of $5.40 to $5.55, versus the Capital IQ estimates of $5.65. Again though, investors collectively have the ability to know (and factor in) when estimates are off-base. In fact, given the shape of today's bar from GCO, I have to wonder if traders were planning on being bullish here all along, and just wanted to make sure they had no major reason not to pull the buying trigger. If that's the case, then Genesco's pace may be about to significantly quicken. See how low today's bar got? We fell all the way to $70.77 early in the session, and then we saw a HUGE rebound. Better still, keep in mind that we were headed into today's low on the heels of eight days of (mostly) selling pressure. We were ready to make a major pivot, and the shape of today's tall bar says we just flushed out all the would-be sellers and then opened the door to a bunch of buyers. The huge volume behind today's bar confirms that a bunch of people were getting out today, followed by a bunch of other people getting in. It really does look like the tide's turned for GCO. And by the way, you may want to keep a mental snapshot of today's action from Genesco in your brain's back pocket. T-shaped bars on volume spikes usually indicate a major turnaround has just been made. The only other pick in our portfolio worth a closer look today is Frontier Communications (FTR), not because it had news, but because it spent the better part of Thursday's session up well above 2.0%.... which is huge, considering the market environment. It may have had something to do with a Seeking Alpha article offering some praise of the company. Mostly though, I just think it's several weeks' worth of technical buildup that's starting to be unleashed, and couldn't be stopped even if somebody wanted to stop it. I'll remind you below with a weekly chart of Frontier Communications that shares have been getting squeezed into the tip of a wedge shape since late last year. The net effect is a lot of upside pressure on the ceiling around $5.00. One more nudge should do the trick, and if we get it, a lot of pent-up bullishness could be unleashed in a hurry. That's why we wanted all of you to get in now, if you were so inclined. And, speaking of stocks in the portfolio, let's go ahead and cut bait on CubeSmart (CUBE) and sell it on Friday. We're not being forced out. In fact, we're walking away with about a 3.0% profit. I just don't like the way it's acting, unable to move back above the critical $17.50 level. Besides, if Thursday's marketwide weakness is an omen, we need to lighten up on the number of positions we have anyway. CUBE is the one it makes the most sense to cut. By the way, there was a bunch of great stuff posted at the site today. I don't have room to point you to all of my favorites, but I'll make some room to point you to the one commentary I think is a must-read.... John Udovich's look at a potential short squeeze from magicJack VocalTec (CALL). Yes, this is the company behind the magicJack device you see touted on TV all the time, as it turns your broadband connection into an ultra-cheap telephone service. While it's a cheesy promotion, the company sells them like crazy. More important to you and me, John takes a holistic look at CALL post-earnings, and in the wake of news that its biggest distributor, Radio Shack (RSH), is going to be closing a huge number of stores. The company has plans to add a lot more outlets though. If you want the whole scoop, be sure to check out John's dissection of the company and its stock.