Happy hump-day, one and all, though we're actually past the mid-point of this particular trading week than we usually are on a Wednesday. Remember, the market's closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday, so there's only tomorrow left in the trading week. And, I've got a feeling plenty of folks are going to make it a four day weekend by taking tomorrow off too. It's the first time all year long the weather's been forecasted to be decent during a holiday weekend, and odds are good that traders are looking to maximize their fun-in-the-sun time. That means tomorrow could be a rather lethargic day. Wednesday sure wasn't lethargic for any of you who are also subscribers to the Elite Opportunity service, however. Congrats are in order for those folks, as they just today booked gains on QualCOMM (QCOM), Corning (GLW) and Myriad Genetics (MYGN) of roughly 27%, 24%, and 32%, respectively. Those are solid wins in any environment, but they're phenomenal gains in the current, choppy environment. That's not the only part of the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity newsletter that caught my eye today though. I also read that the reason John Monroe wanted to go ahead and lock in the gain on those three stocks was to make room for some new ideas. I don't know what those trades will be or when the SCN EO will make them. I think we can safely presume, however, if John Monroe made a point of saying it then they're apt to be on the near-term radar. The "so what" for you is, here's your chance to snag a couple of trading ideas by using your free two-week trial offer to the Elite Opportunity. I think you'll like it well enough to remain a member, but even if you don't, you may still get a great stock pick or two. Remember, Monroe just nailed down three very profitable trades. He clearly knows what he's doing. Here's how to get your trial membership, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/ Moving on to business... Pretty Good Economic Numbers I promised you yesterday we'd take a deeper look at Wednesday's economic data releases, so true to my word, here we go. Let me just preface all of it, however, by saying today's data was relatively encouraging at a time when we needed some encouragement. Let's start with housing. Though most of the real estate number for March won't be out until next week, we got two big ones today... housing starts and building permits. The pace of starts ramped up from 920,000 units per year to 946,000. Meanwhile, the pace of permits fell from 1.014 million to 990,000 last month. As our long-term chart below shows, both seem to have slowed down in recent months, and while March's figures hardly start a new uptrend, they certainly don't lock us into a downtrend. The other data on the chart will be updated next week, and those trends need a shot in the arm too. Assuming starts and permits are an omen though, the real estate market can't be considered a liability now. It's not a performance-boosting asset, mind you, but it's not a liability either. The other big numbers that came out today were capacity utilization and industrial production. Both came in at multi-year highs. We're now utilizing 79.2% of our industrial production capacity, and the industrial production index now stands at a record level of 103.2. While capacity utilization and industrial productivity data won't be able to stave off any short-term weakness we're still due, it's the kind of sign that's very good for the long-term market... the kind of sign that actually makes a positive impact on earnings and consumption trends. Overall I'd have to give today's economic numbers a B+, but again, this economic data means very little in the short run. Q1 Earnings Reality So Far It's still a little too early in Q1's earnings seasons to draw any major conclusions, but it's not too soon to start thinking about them. As of the close yesterday, 47 of the S&P 500's constituents had reported last quarter's results, and removing Bank of America's crazy loss, profits are up about 6.1% on a year-over-year basis. That's a little shy of what the pros were thinking at the beginning of earnings season, but again, we've got 90% of the S&P 500's companies yet to post results - we could easily make up the ground between the growth rate so far and where the growth rate should be before it's all said and done. The beat/miss ratio so far is also fairly typical. That being said... You may have already seen it, but Google (GOOG) just reported disappointing numbers. Granted, the forecasts for Google can sometimes be ridiculously high, but earnings is a game of relative - how did the company fare compared to estimates? Google's revenue didn't fare vary well. Ditto for revenue and for earnings for IBM (IBM) in the first quarter. Big Blue said hardware sales were a problem in Q1. The market could probably absorb a miss from one or the other of these tech giants. To see them both stumble though? That could be trouble. Still Not Out Of the Woods Yet While I'll confess I still see modest odds of the market pulling back here and getting back into a bearish groove, I'll also acknowledge the odds of that happening dropped dramatically today when the S&P 500 managed to cross back above its 20-day and 50-day moving average lines. The volume behind the move, though not great, was decent. There's a catch, however. While the last three days have been plenty bullish, it's not like the market's in a strong enough position to just run away without the bears at least putting up a fight. And, loaded with ammunition from IBM's and Google's stumble, there's a distinct possibility that Thursday could be the day the bears make a stand. So now what? Until the S&P 500 pulls under 1815, I'm not going to worry. That leaves some room for the bears to roar about IBM and Google tomorrow without forcing any of us to commit to another round of selling that just might not happen. And truth be told, I think I'd prefer to see a bit of a dip or a lull tomorrow rather than another bullish day at this point. One more bullish day from here would likely invite a wave of profit taking that could end up rekindling the downtrend that tried to get going in early April. By opening the pressure valve a little bit now, we can clean the decks for another round of bullishness next week. As long as that subsequent rally out of any lull unfurls at a reasonable pace, that may well be the one that gets the S&P 500 above its big ceiling around 1897. On the flipside, if a bearish response to Google and IBM drives the S&P 500 all the way under 1815, that could change the game for the worst. I don't think it'll get to that point though. So to answer the question, Google and IBM may hurt the market a little tomorrow, but I don't think it'll be too bad for the near-term trend. In fact, that induced pullback may actually work in the market's favor by cooling things off a bit before they get too hot. Again, it's all about pacing - too hot or too cold, and any momentum is going to end quickly in this environment of uncertainty and doubt (from both sides of the table). One way or another we're going to have something interesting to talk about tomorrow.