While everyone else is distracted by Goldman, earnings, and the eventual rally we're likely to see once inflation's effects start to seep into the market's engine, we've come across an investment-worthy trend with some real staying power.... from the financial sector. Details are below, along with an updated earnings scoreboard.
First up, however, is a look at the 'best of' from the community commentary this week. On tap are thoughts for China Housing & Land Development (CHLN), Rexahn Pharmaceuticals (RNN), Midwest Banc Holdings (MBHI), Anadys Pharmaceuticals (ANDS), Banner Corporation (BANR), and Spanish Broadcasting System (SBSA).
Stocks In Focus
Three of the Best Deals Around: TRST, BANR, KOPN
Though still in the red, Banner Corporation (NASDAQ:BANR) is shrinking those losses. If it continues to shrink losses, an eventual swing to profitably is in the cards. And, despite the fact that Banner Corp. shares are at multi-year highs, the numbers - and their trend - merit a 'buy' in Dennis Askew's eyes.
Once Forgotten, But Found Again - Reviews AMFI, CSNT, and SBSA
Looking for a huge, long-term recovery idea (and we mean looong term)? Then take a look at Spanish Broadcasting System Inc (NASDAQ:SBSA). The recent technical leap is barely perceptible on a daily chart, but on the weekly chart, not only has a major hurdle been crossed, but the amount of room left for Spanish Broadcasting System to rebound is uncanny.
Why You Should Buy At These Prices: PCBC, ANDS, SCSS
While Anadys Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ANDS) share have been drifting upward over the last several months, the stock's price still may not fully reflect the value that's coming.... the value of an effective hepatitis C treatment. Though only halfway through the R&D stage, Anadys Pharmaceuticals shares could accelerate as the end goal approaches.
In Spite of the Headwind - Looks at MBHI, NVAX, & TXT
To say Midwest Banc Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:MBHI) has reversed its downtrend and turned it onto an uptrend doesn't quite do the chart justice. In fact, the phrase 'paradigm shift' seems a little inadequate. We're seeing strength (and buying interest) from Midwest Banc Holdings that we haven't seen in years, not to mention some big technical resistance knocked down.
RNN Ready To Run Again Today
If you want an honest, complete (good and bad) look at Rexahn Pharmaceuticals (AMEX: RNN), then be sure to check out M.E. Garza's recent commentary. Pulling no punches, and cutting through the hype, Garza poses a plausible outcome/scenario for Rexahn and its Serdaxin.
CHLN: A Bet Against a Chinese Housing Bubble
Though lately, any stock with the word 'China' in it has pretty much been a surefire winner, clearly not everything in the Far East can deserves to move higher. Such is the case with China Housing & Land Development, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHLN) - for now anyway - according to Ken Tudor. In a clear list of pros and cons for China Housing & Land Development, Tudor explains the likely near-term and opposing long-term pressures CHLN will face.
Earnings Scoreboard
We know we took a look at the earnings scoreboard last week, but considering the vast majority of reports so far didn't roll into until this week, an update is merited.
So far, it's been a pretty typical earnings pattern, with roughly 2/3 of companies topping their expectations, and about 1/4 falling short. The number of 'mets' so far has been at the usual sub-10% level, confirming that analyst guesses are more useless than useful (unless a company's trying to play the hero, or someone's looking to make them play the role of the goat).
Note that the numbers you see on the nearby table incorporate all the numbers that have been reported since late March. Though not the 'official' Alcoa-kickoff to earnings season, that's the effective start to earnings season.
However, if you only counted the actual 'earnings season' numbers - in gray - the number of beats rises from 63% to 68%. The number of misses falls from 28% to 23%.
Yes, all those 'topped expectations' are exciting, but either set of numbers are within the normal beat/miss range.... and serve as evidence of low-balling in many cases.
We'll update the table again next week, but we don't anticipate much change in the proportions of hits and misses.
Still Going Strong, Still Unknown
As much as I'd like to talk about the broad market - and this insatiable rally we've seen over the last 10 weeks - there's just not much more I can say about it. We're overbought, and you know it. We're ripe for a pullback, and you know it. There is practically no fear right now (that much confidence is dangerous), and you know it. Yet, stocks have been climbing that wall of worry the whole time they shouldn't have been.
As the saying goes, "the market can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent." I'm not going to fight the tape, though make no mistake ... `I have my finger on the sell/short button.
Instead, I want to plant a seed that may be useful to investors no matter what the market does in the short run.
I put the insurance brokers in a bullish light way back in June of last year. While their rally since then has just been mediocre, hand-picking the best of the best from the list I posted last time (AFSI, NFP, CHSI) would have yielded great results. While I'm generally more apt to assume last year's leaders will be this year's laggards, in this case, I'm inclined to stick with and reiterate my bullish outlook on the insurance brokers.... the small caps in particular.
I'll confess it was the charts (again) that renewed my enthusiasm, both for the S&P 1500 (top heavy) Insurance Broker Index, as well as the S&P 600 Small Cap Insurance Broker Index. As the nearby chart shows, each has been on a well-paced run, yet both still have miles to go before running into the headwinds of prior highs. The small cap index looks especially interesting following the modest dip from last month.
And what about fundamentals? That's the cool part about these charts... their rallies are actually supported with real results - historical and forward-looking.
Not that it's the whole story, but take a look at the past and projected P/E ratios for these stocks on the nearby table. Not bad, all things considered.
And just for the record, the earnings estimates for these companies a little less than a year ago were easily hit in the meantime. As such, the forward-looking guesses are plausible at worst, and most likely underestimate their earnings potential. Some of the small caps - the stocks highlighted in blue - seem to offer tremendous value.
Are they outright lottery tickets for your portfolio? They're probably not that explosive. They are, however, mostly undiscovered and very under-appreciated. Between the charts and earnings though, I think they'll be discovered and appreciated soon enough, and start to heat up as a result.
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