We hope everyone had a great weekend. Either way, Mr. Market made it easy to hit the ground running this week with a fairly bullish day. We still say the rally's running on fumes, but until the majority of traders out there see more risk than reward, the bulls are going to continue to march forward. I don't "like it", but the best trading advice I ever got was to respond to what the market is doing rather than respond to what I think it should be doing. This is why we're willing to add some new names to the bullish watchlist - this crazy market may well let stocks rally for a few more weeks.
New Names Worth a Look
Most of you know the drill, but for those of you who are new to the newsletter, here's the Q&D explanation. Every week we run a scan of most of the market's stocks, searching for tickers that fit a strict set of fundamental and technical criteria. Even most of those names aren't worth trading. Heck, even the best of the best are names we never end up officially putting in the portfolio. There's always one or two names in every week's scan, however, that really look like something special.
The catch is, although they fit the criteria when we find them, there's often one or two things that don't quite look the way we want them to at the time. Rather than simply dismiss them forever, we put these tickers on a watchlist and wait to see if our concerns are abated.
With that as the backdrop, here are the two best-of-the-best possibilities we dug up with our scans from this past weekend. Neither is ready to buy yet, but both of them could be added to the officially-unofficial SCN portfolio at any time.
Kirkland's
Yes, this is the same Kirkland's (KIRK) selling home decor and gifts at a mall near you. The company fell off the radar several years ago when shopping became passe, but consumers are taking some interest again. So are investors. After two failed attempts to move above the 200-day moving average line (green), the current one has finally worked - KIRK moved above the 200-day line today. It's been an ugly crossover so far, but still worth putting on the radar. If Kirkland's can set up a base above the 200-day moving average line at $19.20, that would be huge.
The other reason I like KIRK is that it has a long history of major ebbs and flows. This trade-worthy hot and cold pattern is far more evident on this long-term (and bigger) weekly chart.
I'm not crazy about the valuation here; Kirkland's shares are priced at a trailing P/E of 23.3. The pros are saying the company turned the corner three quarters ago, however, so the stock should grow into its valuation within a year. The market should pick up on this reality well before the results are achieved, however. In fact, it looks like investors have already started to believe in this year's expected 10% increase in earnings... and next year's 11% improvement.
Superior Industries International
Don't worry of you've never heard of Superior Industries Intl. (SUP) - most people haven't. With a market cap of only $566 million, it doesn't garner a lot of attention. The company makes aluminum wheels, but rather than selling them to after-market dealers, it mostly sells them to original equipment manufacturers.
Whatever its target market is, sales have been waning since 2011, and earnings have been falling even faster on the heels of slumping sales. They're projected to dwindle through 2014 as well. So why, pray tell, would anyone want to wade into SUP here? Because 2014 should be the last of the weakness. Analysts are looking for 7.6% growth in revenue next year, with an 18% uptick in earnings predicted for the coming year. It's the kind of turnaround investors are willing to take a shot on well in advance of seeing actual proof of the turnaround.
Anyway, we like the way SUP is getting squeezed into the tip of a bullish wedge shape. Rather than slowing down, it appears to be accelerating up and into a semi-important ceiling at $21.00 (though the upper edge of this wedge is far fuzzier than the bottom edge of it). I'm even less worried about the horizontal ceiling at $22.00; if we get past $21.00, the resistance at $22.00 shouldn't be able to hold the bulls back then. Regardless of how well defined the wedge's upper and lower boundaries are, there's a long-term bullish undertow at work here that could fling Superior Industries Intl. shares higher soon.
So with all of that being said, if you were to go ahead and scoop up one or both of these picks before we put them into our portfolio, you probably wouldn't be alone. And truth be told, you might do just fine with these stocks. We have to be kind of picky about the names we add to the newsletter's portfolio, though, because we can only send entries and exits after the market closes, and we can't take on too many positions - just for the sake of maintaining our sanity. Anything more than eight picks at a time is tough for us to keep up with, as we have so many things besides individual trades we have to talk about here in the newsletter. Indeed, six trades is a lot for us, though we recognize the average investor holds a lot more than six stocks at any given time. Still, six (usually) good picks in addition to the other great commentary you get here in the newsletter is a pretty sweet deal, right?
If you just need more stock picks, however, I suggest tapping into the brainpower of the guys who don't have any other writing and research duties besides picking stocks and managing those trades. That's John Monroe and the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity team, who seem to maintain about ten trades, on average.
Don't get the wrong idea - the SCN EO service only owns as many good-looking trading opportunities as there are at any given time. If there are less then ten, so be it. If there are more than ten, look for more than ten trades. I'm just saying the Elite Opportunity newsletter can give you a heck of a lot more trading ideas - with explicit entries and exits - than I ever could here in the free, end-of-day newsletter. More good trades means more profits, you know? You can still get a free two-week test drive just to see how it works too. Here's how, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/
Now, about the market following Monday's action...
Patience, Grasshopper
Yeah, stocks may have closed higher today, but we're not impressed. We're still riding some residual momentum from the dead-cat bounce following Thursday's intraday plunge, and it might take a bit longer to let the bounce play all the way out. Besides, the buyers were easing off later in the session, and the volume behind today's modest rally was never terribly strong. And, if you look closely, it almost looks like the VIX is trying to push up and off its 20-day moving average line after stumbling today. Take a look.
If you're looking for some direction here, the best advice we can give at this point is to stand by and wait for one side of the table (or the other) to show their cards. You won't have to wait long. John Monroe over at the Elite Opportunity says we'll have answers by Wednesday's close. I can't give you everything he said today, but here's a taste:
"I've included the daily chart of the S&P 500 here, which includes today's trading activity so far, as well as the same displaced moving averages we always rely on, the [specific indicator data removed]. As you can see, although it appeared as though the indexes were on the verge of finally breaking down on a short-term basis earlier last week, they somehow once again managed to claw their way back and put short-term traders in a position of an either or scenario.
This has pretty much been the theme all along and if you've been a Member of EO now for any considerable length of time, then you definitely know this isn't the first time we've seen this picture. Early last week, the index broke below the blue line and closed. Furthermore, it stayed below that line all week.
However, with this morning's higher open and early strength so far on the day, it has once again found itself back above the key indicator line. I should also point out with today's move higher, the index once again only stayed below our key indicator for four consecutive days before it found itself back above it again today, which is also something we've talked about on so many previous occasions.
If, and the big word once again being "if", the index manages to close above this line today, which currently sits at [figure removed], and then it manages to somehow close below our key line as soon as tomorrow but no later than Wednesday, without taking out a new intra-day high, the reversal signal will have been confirmed. The probability of stocks moving lower following the confirmation of this particular reversal signal is very high, however, like everything else in the world of technical analysis, it's never a guarantee.
So, even though the major indexes right now are continuing higher on the day and have found themselves close to testing their highs once again, let's pay close attention to what the S&P does over the next couple of days. Any break of the S&P's previous all-time high of [figure removed] to the upside may likely spark another new sharp leg up.
Any failed test of that high and a sharp close back below our primary indicator as soon as Wednesday's close, dramatically increases the likelihood for stocks to have a pretty rough rest of July and possibly even a move lower like we haven't seen in quite some time."
Now, if you're wondering what these unnamed and undescribed lines are, sorry, we can't give them to you; the specifics are reserved solely for Elite Opportunity subscribers. You get the basic idea though - we're at a pivotal point, and the indices will drop hints if you know what hints to look for. The tools John Monroe uses are the right tools. Better still, the tools he uses work because they're tools few other people have access to. If you just have to know what John Monroe has up his sleeve though (and want Wednesday's make-or-break analysis), I suggest you sign up for your free SCN EO trial today.
We'll be back on Tuesday with a refreshed look at this overbought market. Our gut still tells us things are going to be bearish here, but it's a day-to-day exercise.