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Think Thursday's Selloff Was Bad? You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet.
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Well ladies and gents, it's here. I mentioned to you a couple of days ago how the World Gold Council's quarterly report was due to be published, and the group posted the Q2 report today. Just for the sake of continuity, we'll simply update the same charts we showed you three months ago. A picture really is worth a thousand words, and our small gallery told you everything you needed to know about the way the gold demand trend is changing. First and foremost, gold demand fell again, this time by 11% from Q1's consumption. The 853 tonnes of gold the world used last quarter was the weakest demand we'd seen for gold since the second quarter of 2009... right before gold mania started in earnest. And, bear in mind total demand slumped despite the fact that gold prices were as low as they've been in more than two years. What's interesting is how polarized the demand sources became during the second quarter. Among the groups showing greater demand for gold are those using it in technology, jewelers, and for bars or coins. These weren't minor increases in consumption either. Jeweler's usage of gold jumped to its strongest consumption since early 2008. The minting of gold bars and coins reached a record level of 508 tonnes. Even technology makers cranked up their consumption of gold last quarter. So if jewelers and the gold coin shills were so busy in Q2, how did gold demand still fall? Well, remember how big of a deal it was earlier in the year when gold ETFs were liquidating like crazy? When it was all said and done, the exchange-traded fund industry sold (net) 177 tonnes of gold in the first quarter in order to deal with investor liquidations. Yeah, well, Q2's gold-fund liquidations make that figure look like a joke. In the second quarter, the ETF industry had to shed a little more than 400 tonnes of the stuff to pay off redemptions. At the same time, central bank demand was still (net) positive, but nowhere near as firm as it had been. All told, only 50 tonnes of gold were bought by government banks in the second quarter, whereas the figure had been well above 100 tonnes per quarter for the better part of 2011 and 2012. [Side note: If and when anybody still tries to tell you central banks are buying gold left and right, go ahead and call BS on 'em. Central banks are getting to the point where they want nothing to do with it. The World Gold Council verified it.] So now what, and maybe even more important, what's the 'take-away' from the huge plunge in institutional demand yet the surge in demand for coins and bars? I've got a theory, though it's one that may ruffle some feathers. It's no secret I'm a long-term gold bear, though I'm still a near-term bull when it comes to the world's most beloved precious metal. What I'm getting ready to tell you is part of my longer-term view on gold that jives with the numbers the WGC gave us this morning. Here goes. The smart money and institutions are getting out of long-term gold positions, and plan to stay out for a while, while amateur investors and inexperienced traders - the ones that will buy gold coins based on a TV commercial or an ad in a magazine - are still thinking gold's going to rebound. These smaller 'ma and pa investors' (which can include some inexperienced institutional traders) may even be proven right for a while. When it's all said and done though, gold-mania has run its philosophical course. Now it's time for something else to become the hot button. That's my indirect way of saying I can't advocate hoarding gold in your underground bunker. I can't even advocate making a fund like the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) a long-term holding in your buy and hold portfolio. I'm open to other opinions though. In fact, let's make the SPDR Gold ETF's research page the place to post your opinion on gold. Bullish. Bearish. We don't care. Just write up your best pro or con arguments and post them as a blog entry or article at the site. Or, if all you want to do is give a thumbs up or thumbs down on GLD, you can do that too. Now, on to today's market drubbing. Ouch! Well, nobody can say we didn't see it coming. Stocks got crushed today, finally feeling the weight of all the bearish clues we've been seeing for a couple weeks. You can thank Cisco (CSCO) and Wal-Mart (WMT) for today's stumble, although the market as a whole has been working its way into this vulnerability for a while. What's interesting is that a multi-year low reading in unemployment claims didn't seem to impress investors at all on Thursday. It wasn't too long ago that such news would have spurred a rally. The irony is, the pullback was so nasty it could prompt a rebound out of the ashes. Even if we do get a dead-cat bounce though, it's not something I'd buy into. Stocks were already vulnerable, and after today's damage was inflicted I think it's safe to say traders have been jolted into a state of what could be long-lived doubt. We were certainly due. OK, first things first.... I wasn't kidding about looking for a bounce, and soon. The S&P 500's tumble stopped at the 50-day moving average line today. The VIX's rally also stopped at its 50-day moving average line. And, the VIX as well as the S&P 500 both left behind gaps with this morning's big jumps. The market doesn't like to leave behind gaps, and I foresee both of them being closed. Just don't mistake that uptick from the market for a rekindling of the rally, however. Today's plunge did some damage. Both the VIX and the S&P 500 could retreat to close their gaps and still not move back on the bullish side of their 20-day moving average lines. And yeah, I think that's how it's going to happen... a brief uptick, and then another - and bigger - bearish move. As for where the ultimate bottom will be found, the 1560 level is a good checkpoint target for the S&P 500. That's where the index found a floor in June, and it would translate into a fairly typical 8.7% bull market correction from the early August peak. I'm not saying that's THE floor. I'm just saying that's where stocks might start to find support, so we'll start scrutinizing at that level. It's going to be a while until it matters though. For now, the next several days are going to be volatile and inconsistent. Once we start to see organized, methodical selling again, that's when you'll want to start playing some serious defense (or bearish offense). We'll be here to walk you through it..