Happy hump-day, one and all. We've actually got quite a bit to work through today, so let's not tarry. Let's just dive in, starting with the item I'm sure weighing on your mind most right now... what the heck is going on with the market right now? This won't be the first time you've heard me say this, but traders just have no conviction at this point in time. The S&P 500's low-to-high range this year has spanned about 13% of its current value, confirming volatility has been plentiful. But, the S&P 500 is essentially flat for the year so far, telling us traders can't justify higher or lower prices for any length of time. It's been maddening to say the least. I'd love for the market to move higher, though I don't care if the market moves lower; I can make money in both environments. I just need it to make some net-movement, which is the one thing it hasn't done much of this year. Fortunately I've got a subscription to the Elite Opportunity newsletter, which helps me extract some gains from a go-nowhere market. For instance, about a month ago EO members reaped a 47% gain on the Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X ETF (TNA) John Monroe recommended back in early October... right before the market bounced. But I digress. Let's talk about what's going on right now. You know the market was down on Wednesday. What you may not realize is with today's pullback, the S&P 500 is back under the 50-day moving average line (purple) as well as back under its 200-day moving average line (green). We're still not past the point of no return yet. I'm pegging the last bastion of hope for the S&P 500 as the now-converged 100-day moving average line (gray) and the lower Bollinger band... both at 2032. With the VIX finally starting to put some pressure on its upper Bollinger band again though, one more bad day may well push the S&P 500 over the edge, so to speak. In the meantime, in my view the tide has already turned a little bearish. Take a look.   The chart that's really got me curious is the NASDAQ Composite's. It looks a lot like the S&P 500 does at this time, shape-wise, and it's actually above a huge number of support levels that have all converged around 4960. This could be a good thing or a bad thing. It's good in the sense that the floor at 4960 is really strong. It's bad in the sense that if the strong floor should fail as support, there's nothing else below it to stop the bleeding. This is a tricky time for traders, eh? My biggest fear is, stocks are just going to remain choppy, which doesn't mean there aren't trading opportunities out there. It just means you have to be nimble and either look at things through a micro scale (intraday) or a macro scale (weekly). The day-to-day viewpoint may be the least helpful point of view right now. Dollar Finally Crumbles, But Yields Hold Steady John Monroe talked about it at length today in the Elite Opportunity newsletter, but I'm only going to be able to touch on it here... the indecision keeping stocks on the fence is keeping bonds on the same fence. Our chart below says it all. Despite the dollar's recent mini-meltdown, bond yields haven't budged much because bonds themselves haven't moved. This is a little unusual, as - broadly speaking - what's bad for the dollar is also bad for bond prices and/or good for bond yields. Not this time though. The dollar's sinking, but the bond market is shrugging it off. My best guess as to why is the market as a whole is waiting to see how it all shakes out.... for stocks, bonds, and commodities. This stagnation in the face of such a big drop from the greenback is a pretty big sign of just how strongly traders feel about doing nothing right now. And yes, I've got a feeling the Fed's rate decision next week is what will unleash all this pent-up trading, pushing yields as well as bonds out of their converging wedge patterns. The U.S. dollar just doesn't factor in. Time to Trade Oil? Last but not least, although crude oil isn't yet at the multi-year low of $37.76 per barrel hit in August, it's no secret that's the direction oil is headed. Crude closed at $38.75 today, extending a five-week losing streak. There are pros and cons to this situation. It's bad that cheap oil is killing energy companies, and energy stocks make up more than a tenth of the overall stock market. It's good, though, since crude oil is actually making trade-worthy moves in a market where stocks aren't making any exciting moves, and may not make any great moves for the foreseeable future. As for how to trade oil, I think it's safe to say John Monroe over at the Elite Opportunity has a finger on the pulse of what's really going on here. This is part of what he wrote about oil to EO members today: ".... should oil continue its recent decline without any sort of relief rally along the way, it's entirely possible what's taking place right now is an awful lot of tax loss selling to close out the year. If that continues without any sort of rally in the interim, there's a strong possibility oil could do well to kick off the year, as value investors and tax loss sellers re-enter into the commodity and many value plays associated with it. A sharp continued move lower may end up offering at least a short-term trade back to the upside if oil can move further and further away from the 3X3 DMA you see in this daily chart above [not shown for end-of-day newsletter subscribers]. Why? Because a thrusting instrument always comes back to its 3X3 DMA at some point, but it's only ever best to fade against a downward trend when the instrument in question has gotten extremely far away from its 3X3 DMA to the downside." Obviously that wasn't everything John had to say on the matter, and at least some of the context was lost. You get the idea though. There's actually a method to the madness from oil right now, and there's a way to trade it effectively. Elite Opportunity members are going to be treated to those specific instructions when certain levels are met. The question is, which levels, and where will oil go from there? My advice? In the shadow of what could be go-nowhere stock market for a while, go to where the action is... oil. The Elite Opportunity makes oil make sense, and lets you trade it effectively with just stocks and ETFs. Here's how, or just cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/