We saw a little strength in the market yesterday going into the close along with a feeble attempt at some follow through this morning early on the open, however, as I type, the NDX is working on giving some of yesterday's gains back. Where this market goes from here is anyone's guess and I'm certain there's about as many opinions out there as there are stocks to trade.
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We've provided our thoughts and commentary on where we believe this market could go to the point where we'd basically be repeating ourselves now. I wouldn't get overly excited about any sort of short-term strength and one thing's for sure... if you do decide you want to grab call options on the weakness, you best flip them for reasonable profits as opposed to trying to hit it out of the park.
We called the absolute top in this market back in early April and the easier money playing the downside has already been made. I for one wouldn't be running out at current market levels trying to scalp profits on the short side. That just doesn't present itself as a prudent opportunity based on where the markets have gone to this point. One thing's for sure and it's important for every single investor out there to remember, stocks usually go down much faster than they go up. That's just the way it is. Fear is the single biggest motivator of decisions and it's been that way ever since the stock market has been around.
At this point, you're going to be much savvier than most if you continue to remain rational and logical looking to cut your weaker stocks from your portfolio and potentially add stocks with good underlying fundamentals.
A few weeks ago we mentioned to you we were going to try and hunt down some value in this market and look for ideas that have been bucking the overall trend. Since then, we've added YELP as more of a bottom fishing idea that has been a victim of FB's IPO debacle along with most other social media plays. Things will change and we believe that when it's all said and done, YELP could end up being one of the better stocks to own. Time will tell.
Demand Media (DMD) is another stock we added to our featured list recently and although the stock is off from our initial coverage launch, it has held up well in the face of the recent meltdown.
Today, we're going to add another new idea to our featured list which can be found on the homepage of the site. It's important to remember when there's blood in the streets, there's opportunity out there everywhere for the long haul.
Farmin' for Pharma
We've had the opinion for quite some time that biotech and pharma isn't such a bad place to be. Entering the era of aging baby boomers, ground breaking technological innovation and a focus on healthcare in this country, it's no reason the space is presenting itself with some pretty nice opportunities of late.
In a nutshell, SciClone Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SCLN) provides therapies for the treatment of oncology, infectious diseases, cardiovascular, urological, respiratory, and central nervous system disorders in the People’s Republic of China and internationally. Its principal product is ZADAXIN, which is used for the treatment of hepatitis B and hepatitis C viruses, and certain cancers, as well as for use as a vaccine adjuvant, and as a chemotherapy adjuvant for cancer patients with weakened immune systems.
ZADAXIN has approval in approximately 30 countries, which include China, the Pacific Rim, Latin America, eastern Europe, and the Middle East. The company markets and sells ZADAXIN through distribution arrangements, local importers, and distributors. It also offers Tramadol for use in the treatment of moderate to severe pain; and is developing SCV-07, which is in Phase IIb clinical trials for the treatment of oral mucositis and hepatitis C virus.
In addition, the company markets partnered products in China, including Depakine, an anti-convulsant; Tritace, an ACE inhibitor for the treatment of hypertension; Stilnox, a hypnotic for the short-term treatment of insomnia; and Aggrastat, a cardiology product. It holds license, promotion, distribution, or marketing agreements for products, such as DC Bead, Loramyc, and ondansetron RapidFilm.
Not only has SCLN been one of the top-performing small cap stocks for the last three months, it's actually been one of the top-performing small caps for the last two years. Never mind the fact that nobody's cared to notice.
The main question surrounding SCLN right now is, can we expect more of the same bullishness going forward? The answer is, most likely, yes. SCLN is one of those rare biotech names that is not only profitable, but very profitable. Pessimists are doubting the legitimacy of the projected P/E of 6.1 (and a trailing P/E of 10.8), but given a couple of years' worth of rising sales and profits, it's kind of hard to justify doubts any longer.
What the Company is doing for emerging markets and third world countries by providing treatments for diseases and disorders (that tend to run much more rampant than here in the U.S.) makes shares of SCLN very attractive right now. If SCLN was based in China, I might have my doubts, however, being based here in California provides us with the necessary comfort level to believe the numbers.
If you're willing to take a look at the Company's most recent 10Q, you're going to find some very impressive results. Comparing quarter over quarter results, the Company grew in every important respect. Top line revenue, gross profits, net income and cash flows all saw tremendous positive growth.
With an extremely reasonable market cap of $352M, one would tend to think the stock deserves some serious attention. Based on its trailing of 11.01, a forward P/E of 6.26 and only trading at roughly five times cash, we believe there's some potentially significant upside in SCLN on a go forward basis.
I've included a weekly chart of SCLN here clearly showing you that aside from a fair amount of volatility, the stock has been in a pretty bullish pattern now ever since 2009 and has done well considering what the rest of the market has provided in terms of overall returns. One might think SCLN has been played out with its easiest gains already have been made. Although it's possible, would you have thought the same about Apple when it went from $15 to $100 before going to almost $600? I'm not comparing the two, I'm simply pointing out that when it comes to longer-term investing, giving a Company an opportunity to grow even more that it already has, can and often does provide excellent returns going forward.
Shares of SCLN have also retraced some key retracement levels from its high of over $20 per share dating back a number of years, and has held up nicely. If the stock can take out its high from March 12th around $6.95, there doesn't appear to be much resistance in the way to take the stock a lot higher.
I think it's also worth noting the stock is 38% institutionally owned but also has a fairly high short ratio of 10.7. Any strong catalyst for the stock could send the stock into a frenzy forcing a fairly decent short position in the stock to cover.
If you're looking for a protective stop, which we always suggest, I'd give this one some breathing room around $4 per share, since it does have a history of exercising some volatility before it inevitably decides to move higher.
We'll be adding SCLN to our featured list at the close today. If you'd like to follow what other SCN Contributors and Members have to say about SCLN, go here: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/SciClone-Pharmaceuticals-Inc/s/quote/p/s/SCLN/.
As always, we're a starting point for ideas and not a means to an end. Do your own diligence and if you come to the same conclusion we have about SCLN, then let's hope we're all right and SCLN gives you the kind of returns that small caps are so well known for.