Do you ever just get one of those feelings something isn't quite right? You may not be able to put your finger on it. Heck, you may even see some evidence telling you your gut feeling is completely wrong. On the rare occasion you get that really strong inkling though (and this is coming from a guy who takes a systematic, scientific approach to investing), I think you have to pay attention to it. Well folks, I got such an inkling today. There's just something not quite right about the market's current rally efforts. There's also something uneasy about its bigger-picture condition. While I'm not calling for a recession or a bear market, I do think things could get - shall we saw interesting? - over the course of the next several weeks. If you're wondering what sparked this unease, I can tell you. In fact, I can show you. It was a headline I caught at MarketWatch.com today explaining "Why an earnings recession can be bullish for stocks." Take a look. I read the article, and I understand what Mark Hulbert was saying about what Ned Davis was saying. In a different environment I would possibly even agree with it. This time around though, it struck me as different, and concerning. Yes, we've seen headlines like this for a while now - good news is bullish, and bad news is bullish. Good news means the economy is growing, and bad news has meant the Fed will continue to stimulate. We've only been seeing the upside of both sides of the coin for several years now. And truth be told, there was enough truth in those arguments to keep the rally in motion. Not anymore, however. Now, although subtly, things have changed. Now the folks finding reasons to be bullish are coming across a little desperate. The MarketWatch headline above is one of several such desperate, grasping-for-straws examples I've seen lately. There's no real silver-lining on slumping earnings. The Fed can't stimulate its way out of or reverse declining earnings if it hasn't done so already. Indeed, if earnings fall, odds are good inflation will falter and job-growth will suffer too. The problem is, it's not as if the Fed can lower rates any more than they already have, which is what the Fed would want/need to do in that situation. But I digress. My bigger point is, just within the past several days the "bad news is good news" arguments seem to be desperate. That's a new development, but one worth noting. With that being said, I'll fully acknowledge it was a few recent editions of the Elite Opportunity newsletter that opened my eyes to a lot of the economic headwinds (and earnings headwinds) we're starting to hit now.... even if that impact has so far gone unnoticed. I don't want to poach too much of his commentary from today's edition, but I think John Monroe summed it up pretty well in today's EO newsletter by explaining: "...in our humble opinion, the only thing stocks have going for them at this point is low interest rates and a multi-year thrusting trend higher. It just seems the financial media is still fixated on the idea that as long as interest rates remain low, stocks are simply going to continue higher, so if our recent research is any indication of what's to come, we need to pay close attention to everything but interest rates." He's right. And to underscore his point, much of the MarketWatch article mentioned above focused on interest rates and when (and to what degree) the Fed would raise them. As John's backtested research from last week clearly showed, though, interest rates are among the most meaningless factors at this stage of the game. Far more important are GDP growth. Monroe also thinks the unemployment trend is a biggie. I agree on both fronts, though I'll add plain ol' earnings growth is a key bigger-picture barometer. With that in mind, yes, today's the day we're going to offer you a detailed preview of Q1's earnings outlook, using the S&P 500 as our proxy. As of the most recent data, the S&P 500 is expected to post per-share income of $26.74 for the first quarter of 2015. That's 2.1% below the year-ago bottom line, and would mark the second consecutive quarter the index saw a dip in year-over-year income. To answer the next question, no, we can't solely blame the energy sector for this weakness. A handful of other sectors are contributing to the expected earnings tumble. The earnings growth rates for all the major sectors are below. Everything for 2014 is verified and actual, while everything for 2015 is only a projected figure. Still, the projections are usually on target. Taking a step back, t he S&P 500 is projected to grow income by only 4.7% this year, but is then expected to grow earnings by 13.8% next year. It all translates into a trailing P/E of 18.5 and a forward-looking (2015) P/E of 17.0. Both are sky high. Looking even further down the road at a detailed visualization of the S&P 500's earnings trend and outlook, we can see 2015 isn't expected to be a bang-up year for earnings growth, though the picture is expected to improve next year. What's so different about the two years? I've got a feeling it's the recent tepidness of GDP growth. Analysts and investors recognize we're in an economic lull now and may be in one for a while, but they're also expecting the economy to work its way out of that lull by 2016. While we agree things could be lackluster in the near-term, I'm not so sure I'd be as hopeful about the 2016 outlook. The Federal Reserve certainly isn't either, expecting 2016's GDP growth to come in about as tepidly as 2015's likely GDP growth... which is actually weaker than the growth rates we all fell in love with through early 2014. In other words, 2016's encouraging earnings-growth outlook doesn't align with the current economists' GDP growth outlook for the same year. In the meantime, I'm not even sure 2015's tepid earnings growth outlook aligns with the mediocre GDP growth outlooks on the table for this year. And as John Monroe already verified for us, it's GDP growth - not interest rates - that will be doing the driving from here. Honestly, the Fed's only "play" left with interest rates is to tighten things, but the only thing we'll realistically need from the Fed in the foreseeable future if earnings sink is a looser, more accommodative policy. Inflation is still nowhere near becoming a problem, and last month's sharp plunge in payroll-growth is a big red flag. Again, this isn't us ringing the alarm bell and saying you have to abandon the ship. This is us just agreeing with the Elite Opportunity's stance that a lot of the things which could work against the market - from all directions - are starting to come together. Waning earnings is one of them. Tepid GDP growth is another. Increasingly-desperate headlines trying to convince us "bad news is actually good news" is yet another factor working against the market. Frothy valuations aren't helping either, and John Monroe has also seen a handful of technical red flags from the indices of late. Put it all together, and stocks feel ripe for a good-sized setback, though it's a setback that will ultimately be a long-term buying opportunity. As John said it today, "I do believe we're far closer to the biggest selloff we've seen in a good while. As a matter of fact, even if these markets end up breaking to new highs, I don't believe there's all that much upside left before these markets are ready to stage a pretty decent pullback, one that could offer an excellent buying opportunity in some quality names." I know we touched on a lot of stuff today, and maybe only muddied the waters rather than clearing them up. Sorry if that was the case. But, we had a lot to get through and only a little time and space to get through it. If it helps though, our key goal today was to point out the bigger, almost unrecognizable shift in the market's current paradigm. It IS happening. We'll get through it as we always do, but there does seem to be something of a day of reckoning on the near-term horizon, ready to remind us the market doesn't already go higher just for any reason. I honestly wish I could bring you more of the kinds of insights the Elite Opportunity team is giving its readers every day. In fact, much of our commentary above was spurred by comments and observations John Monroe and his team gave EO members over the past few days. While we put a lot of pieces of the puzzle on the table, John's the guy who can actually solve the puzzle. If you'd like more and deeper insight regarding the market's fundamentals, technicals, and intangibles, the Elite Opportunity is that perfect resource. If you're not a subscriber, you ARE missing out on some great stuff. Get more out of the market starting today by becoming an EO member. Here's how, or just cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/ We'll be back to our usual fare tomorrow.