News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Here's Why I'm Not Afraid of a Market Correction
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Well folks, there it is - the proverbial shot heard 'round the world's financial markets. Despite some pundits trying to dismiss the early plunge (sparked by the Portugal turmoil, by the way) as a temporary result of overblown fears, I can't say we agree it's "just a little volatility." We've got a feeling the market showed us just how vulnerable it is today, and now that the bears know there's a weak spot in the armor, they're likely to exploit it. Now, those of you who follow our stuff closely you may have noticed even though both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ spent some time beneath their 20-day moving average lines today, neither of them closed below that key level. While I'd never say never when it comes to the stock market, I don't think it matters at this point. The egg was good and cracked with this morning's plunge, and you just can't uncrack an egg. While we might get a modest bullish ebb stemming from today's partial bounceback, the damage is done. From here it's all about the timing of any entry. With all of that being said... I think we mentioned this once earlier in the week, but today's market action merits a repeat of the message now - if you're looking to us for short-term swing trades on market-based indexes, you're barking up the wrong tree. It's not that we can't do it. It's just that doing so effectively is almost impossible when your newsletter is delivered outside of market hours. Case in point: Today. While the market was hyper-bearish today, it's not like it gradually walked into that deep hole. Stocks actually opened the day deep underwater. The NASDAQ was down 1.5% right at the open. It actually rallied over the course of Thursday. The big "so what" is, if you weren't already in a bearish or short position before Wednesday's close, today's bearish move would have done you little to no good. And, if you didn't get out of the short position first thing this morning, then you ended up giving a great deal of your profit back to the market. My point is, from the market's high last Thursday to today's low, there's been a ton of bearish trading opportunity IF - and I stress IF - you were ready to move at a moment's notice, without needing to wait on explicit directions. There's not a moment to spare if you want to capitalize on such opportunities when they present themselves in the middle of the trading day. With that notion in the back of your mind, I have to give a shout-out and an "atta boy" to my friend John Monroe over at the Elite Opportunity service, who nailed it in his intraday newsletter on Monday. I wanted so badly to explicitly share this with you on Monday evening, but I couldn't - it was just too valuable to the SCN EO's member to give away. It doesn't matter at this point though, as the move he was looking for has basically run its course. On Monday, Monroe said: "From a technical perspective, the major indexes right now are providing about as much context for a pullback right now, as we've seen in a while.... ...As a matter of fact, since the index got within just a few points of this final expansion level you see here to close out trading last week, it's definitely close enough to suggest a short-term tradable top is developing as I type.... ...If you're willing to stomach the risk, the swing trading play going forward may finally have switched its tone from buying the dips and selling the rips to the opposite, shorting the rips and buying back the dips." In other words, he called the short-term top. The market never did what he said would be its one "out" on Monday, which would have been obvious well before Monday's closing bell rang. With actionable, clear instructions in hand (Monroe even gave a list of applicable ETFs to use), a trader could have easily taken action and capitalized on the 2.2% plunge from Monday's close to today's open. The trick would have been, of course, knowing to do that. EO subscribers knew, as they do so often. As we mentioned earlier this week, John Monroe can really thread the market's needle. And just to be clear, it's not like John didn't give Elite Opportunity members another clear sign on Wednesday when we wrote this for the mid-day EO newsletter: "If you entered into a bearish ETF off of our Monday commentary, when we suggested the markets had topped out on a short-term basis, you're likely in good shape and well positioned. I'd use your entry level as your SSL or at the very least, last Thursday's high of the S&P 500, which was roughly 1,984 because if for some reason the indexes decide to do what they've continued to do all along, which is pull back and then grind higher, you're not going to want to be left holding the bag on any new index highs. As for profit taking with any short positions, use breaks below short-term support levels like the one I've circled in the chart above to cover up and wait for a retracement to re-enter a bearish ETF in anticipation of a resumption of the short-term trend lower. With that being said, we've decided the way we'll want to play these markets on a short-term basis is to play the extremes. Meaning, if for some reason the NASDAQ rallies to the 5/8 level around 4,441, we'll enter a bearish ETF around there in anticipation of another sharp reversal back to the downside. Conversely, if the NASDAQ blows through the confluence area I've circled in this hourly chart here to the downside, which sits around 4,340, we'll likely get long anywhere between there and roughly 4,230. It's about a 100 point window, so it will all be predicated on how it gets there." Clear entry points? Clear exit points? Clear triggers? Yeah, the SmallCap Network Elite opportunity has all three, all the time. And as is usually the case, Monroe nailed it, sensing this morning's nasty move has been brewing up for days. Anyway, this whole week so far (in addition to the money made from John's spot-on call) really got me thinking... how many trading resources out there made any money this week? I get a myriad of newsletters - some free, some paid - and I don't recall a single one of them telling me how I could make any money this week by playing the downside move, let alone how I could best play it with leveraged ETFs or options. If anything, it seems like most of those newsletters have basically shut down and hunkered down, trying not to say much of anything until this storm blows over. All well and good, but I've got news for all of those other newsletters as well as news for you... this storm could last for a few weeks. Just shoving your head in the sand and riding it out isn't a solution. If anything, it's a liability. That's why I'm glad I have a resource like the EO that can not only navigate me through it, but let me score a few money-making trades along the way by - as John put it - shorting the rips and buying back the dips. Incredibly, in today's EO newsletter he's already got his next intraday ceilings and floors marked and ready to start his next short-term trade, saying of the S&P 500: "As for the major indexes, there is a little hope developing for the bulls. I want to strongly suggest once again, if you're entering into any bearish ETF's on a short-term basis, make sure you continue to do it on minor index retracements and don't get greedy. Cover up on capitulatory moves and wait because the trading behavior of the major indexes for quite some time now has continued to keep traders on both sides of the trade very honest. It really hasn't been as simple as just getting long or getting short anywhere you want. The play continues to be to buy the extreme dips, sell the extreme rips and vice versa... ... As you can see [chart not shown here], the mid-expansion level sits at roughly 1,948 but there's also a key support level I've pointed to here at roughly 1,944. The final expansion level sits at roughly 1,932, so I suspect if the markets can't find a base or even if they claw their way back off of today's lows somewhat, we're likely headed between 1,948 and 1,932 in fairly short order before we get another nice short-term retracement back to the upside." You get the idea, so I'm not going to dwell on. I'll just sum it up by saying Monroe really gets how the market works, particularly in a bearish environment like this one where everyone else is freaking out. I'd love to see all of you guys tap into that knowledge by becoming a member of the Elite Opportunity service. Doing so could mean the difference between being miserable and being ecstatic for the next couple of months. You can even get a test-drive to see how it works. Here's how, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/