Happy Friday folks... a Friday the 13th, no less. To tell the truth though, I think any Friday the 13th-related horrors we were due probably came on Wednesday, the 11th, with that big 1.1% drop.
Thing is, an analysis of the market is the least important of all the things we have for you today. In fact, the most important of today's topics has absolutely nothing to do with stocks, and everything to do with proving that people - and sharing some fun - are more important than profits. How that? I can't really explain it. You'll just have to see for yourself. I'll simply say if you want an uplifting story to start your weekend, be sure to check out the last snippet of today's newsletter. It'll take you to a five-minute clip that will have you laughing and crying at the same time.
To get the ball rolling today though, I want to point out something trade-worthy to you that for the life of me I can't understand why none of the major news sources are sharing.
Maritime Shippers Back in Business?
Back on September 10th we (no pun intended) floated the idea to you that maritime shippers were finally coming out of a multi-year funk. We weren't totally convinced things were getting better for the long haul within the shipping sector; the rally the Baltic Dry Index was doling out at the time just looked a little too hot to last. Sure enough, it didn't. The Baltic Dry Index - a daily measure of the prevailing shipping-vessel charter rates - fell from 2148 to 1484 over the course of October. That 30% plunge pretty much cooled any optimism that maritime shipping was finally going to give us a long-awaited recovery.
Care to guess what's happened in the meantime? If you guessed the Baltic Dry Index not only rebounded, but has actually moved on to new highs, then you're right. The BDI is now valued at 2337, up 55% from its October low. Take a look.
Folks, I can accept the possibility that the June-September runup was a fluke, even if it pulled the index above a major long-term resistance line. To see the bears pass up a perfect opportunity to pull the rug out from underneath that rally in October though, and then let the Baltic Dry Index move on to higher highs? Sorry - I can't dismiss that as mere volatility.
Now, if I had to venture a guess, I think we can still expect more of this ebb and flow going forward. It's apt to be a string of higher highs and higher lows though, and that's good news for shipping stocks.
The stocks I named back in early September as ways to play the trend were FreeSeas (FREE), NewLead Holdings (NEWL), Seanergy Maritime Holdings (SHIP), and Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE). And, I still like those possibilities. In the meantime though, I ran across a couple of other small caps in the space I think could be a little spicier for our more speculative folk.
One of them is Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK), which has been working on a major recovery for months now. Looks like it's getting some traction too, though there remains a ton of room to keep rising.
The other one is Paragon Shipping (PRGN) which has actually been in an uptrend since late 2012, but recently tested and pushed off of the key 200-day moving average line. Like Star Bulk Carriers, there's plenty of volume behind the current leg of the rally from Paragon.
My attraction to both stocks is admittedly a purely-technical one. I don't see either company swinging to a profit anytime soon no matter how high the Baltic Dry Index flies in the foreseeable future. But, that doesn't mean one or both of them couldn't make for a nice near-term trade. Consider both PRGN and SBLK now on our watchlist, along with yesterday's addition of Silicon Image (SIMG).
The Best Lesson Any Trader Can Learn
They're probably going to kill me for doing this, but I don't care - it's too important to pass up. (In other words, it's easier to ask for forgiveness than permission.)
I know I've mentioned several times now how the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity service isn't just a stock-picking service, but also a market-handicapping service. Even that description doesn't do the SCN EO justice, however. Every now and again they share a hugely important lesson that may be more valuable to their subscribers than any trade they could recommend. For that very reason, I have to share part of today's newsletter/lesson with you.
John Monroe writes:
One of the biggest mistakes I think short-term traders have a tendency to make is understanding how a top or a bottom can set up and more importantly, how long it can actually take before there's some real profits to be had on a short-term basis. My point is, often times as traders, we have a strong tendency to focus on the hours, rather than being patient and focusing on the days or even weeks. Why? Because when a trader or investor spends a lot of time in front of level 2 real-time quotes and charts, a day or two can seem like a lifetime but that's where the problem often lies....
...Rather than be patient and let the whole process play itself out, they jumped the gun too soon and were left scratching their heads. A much more prudent way to play tops and bottoms is to let things play out for a while and see just how the topping or bottoming process starts to play out. It can take several days and even weeks before one truly knows what's really starting to take place. More importantly, when a trader takes this approach, even if they end up being wrong, they can at least give themselves a much better risk/reward entry level. One that allows them to sleep a little better at night, as opposed to chasing a stock or an index on a sharp move. Then, left wondering if the idea in mind is going to reverse its short-term trend after entering into the idea on the assumption it's just going to continue in the direction they initially though it would.
It's a very common mistake made over and over again by even some of the best short-term traders.
Point being, if you are interested in playing a potential top or bottom, don't worry about missing out on some of the potential bigger gains by acting early. Stocks and indexes typically love to correct and re-correct on the shorter timeframe charts. One way to help with this concept is even if you're a short-term trader, always have a look at the weekly and monthly charts to get a feel for what can happen when you eliminate all of the noise and volatility of the short-term charts.
Instead, let a series of days or weeks play out because if these markets are truly in a mid-term topping process, which could last at least a few months, I can assure you these markets are going to snapback in a big way at some point before resuming their potential trend change. And, that will not only give your more assessment time, it will give you more technical information to have the type of conviction necessary to make a bold move.
Well, that wasn't all of the text from the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity newsletter today, but you get the idea. If you want to get the rest of the lesson - and I highly recommend you do - you can read it for free by using your free two-week trial to the SCN EO service. It's just pure trading genius. Here's how. Or, copy and paste the following link in your browser: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=SCN+Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/
The Coolest and Most Clever Publicity Effort of the Year
Actually, I'm going to table any discussion of the market until next week, because, well... what's the point of talking about it today? Stocks went nowhere on Friday, as most traders remain on the fence. Everything we told you yesterday pretty much applies today. Let's just leave it at that, with the promise that we'll get back in the swing of things when and if the market begins moving next week.
Instead, I want to send you to a clip I ran across on YouTube that defines the holiday spirit. I don't even want to tell you what it is, because doing so may be something of a spoiler. I just think it's cool there are corporations willing to do this kind of stuff, even if it is mostly for publicity. Also, I think once the five-minute clip is through playing you'll have an opportunity to see the bloopers that didn't make it into the video. That's worth a look too.