News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Bullish, or Bearish? That Depends on This.
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Looks like some of you have already started to establish your stock-picking prowess by using our new stock-rating tools. Remember, not only does this feature let us collectively decide how the SmallCap Network community feels about a particular stock, but it also lets you keep tabs on your bullish and bearish calls. Who knows? You may end up becoming a heroic stock picker with a cult-like following (which could eventually mean real money for you). A couple of the standout stock-pickers so far are NASDAQ Trader and JOHN. NASDAQ Trader is up 41% on his (her?) WellQuest Medical & Wellness (WEQL) short trade, while JOHN is up 60% on a Federal Home Loan Mortgage (FMCC) long position. Both picks are just a few days old too. LIke we mentioned last week, we're excited about what this community rating tool could do to benefit our readers, mainly because the crowd is usually right. Take a look at the 'jelly bean phenomenon' we explained last week to really understand why. The really cool part is, the bigger our stock-picking community gets, the more accurate the rankings become. We already took care of getting the votes out on Apple, so let's do another hot name for today.... Facebook (FB) Let 'er rip - just click here. School's Back In Session (But Only Briefly) OK guys, as promised, today we want to start digging into a couple of object-lessons so we can better make a bigger point later in the week. If you're not interested in going back to school, don't worry - I can tell you all you need to know in a matter of seconds. You guys are smart, and will pick up on what I'm trying to say with no problem. Ever heard of the so-called 'Dow Theories'? They're a set of tools and market "tells" that give a long-term investor an edge when it comes to guessing what the market's going to do next. No need to explain all of them.... I'm only interested in passing along one of those ideas today. Simply put, within every bull market (and every bear market, for that matter), there are ebbs and flows. Sometimes they run counter to the bigger trend, and other times they make up the bigger trend. I know, I know - I'm not telling you something you don't innately know. There's more to it than just the obvious facts though. In the trading and investing game, having a game plan, a goal, or a perspective is at least half the battle. You'd be shocked at the number of people who sit down at a computer every day, and buy or sell a stock based on a headline without ever really thinking about (1) how long they intend to - or intended to - hold a position, or (2) whether or not that particular stock makes sense given their goals and strategy. Yes, those are the kind of mistakes you normally hear about long-term investors making, but I promise you that short-term traders need to be able to answer the same questions before making or exiting a trade. Now, there's a reason I bring this up; it sets the stage for the snippet of the Dow Theories I want to look at today. Here it is - every move the market makes is part of a primary trend (measured in months), a secondary trend (measured in weeks), and a tertiary trend (measured in days). Again, that's not likely to be news to any of you. Even if you didn't know the specific names or criteria, everyone innately understands that the market ebbs and flows. I still want to bring it up today, however, because despite the fact that most everyone understands the market moves up and down over time, very few people actually make decisions based on the market's various timeframes. In other words, too many true short-term traders are making short-term trading decisions based on long-term, or primary trend, data. Likewise, too many long-term investors make long-term investment decisions based on short-term data. Both traders and investors can end up shooting themselves in the foot simply because they didn't have a clear timeframe in mind when making a buy/sell decision. To be fair, the media doesn't make it easy on you. Financial television can grind through hundreds of long-term data points every day, and make it seem like you're a fool for not responding to it immediately. The fact of the matter is, however, most market-related news you hear through TV (or even online) shouldn't be prompting activity. The bottom line is, if you're a short-term (tertiary) trader, then great... but don't sweat things like earnings or GDP. Likewise, if you're truly and only a long-term (primary trend) investor, you can't get freaked out just because one of the Fed's governors other than Bernanke says something less than bullish one time. Keep your timeframe in mind, before and during a trade, no matter how long that trade lasts. You've got to filter out the rest of the noise. Like I said, I doubt that I told anyone something they didn't already innately know. But, recently I've seen a lot of traders and investors acting on some data or information that really just shouldn't have mattered to them and their particular situation. So, my challenge to you is this: For the rest of the year, before you add or drop any trades, decide for yourself what the primary AND secondary AND tertiary market trends are at the time, and how that will affect your trade. [For reference, three out of four stocks move in the same direction as the broad market, so getting the market right truly is half the battle.] The sheer act of having a mental roadmap in place will make you better than 90% of self-titled traders out there. And yes, we'll be helping you do this going forward, by explaining whether our calls are short-term or long-term in nature. In the meantime, keep this piece of the Dow Theories in the back of your mind, 'cause we'll be using it to make a point about the current market tomorrow and/or Friday. Now, about today's action.... Snoozeville Well, if there's one thing today confirmed for us, it's that the bulls have drawn something of a line in the sand at the S&P 500's 20-day moving average line (at 1639.50). All it took was a kiss of that level to send the market higher again. Of course, stocks still closed in the red - the S&P 500 ended the session down 0.70%. That's the third losing day in the last five. The VIX closed higher too, though like most of the stock indices, it didn't exactly make a convincing move on Wednesday. It's still pointed upward, but that uptrend remains tepid. The bottom line is, hang tight here. It's clear at this point that most traders are on the fence, waiting for someone else to show their cards. We can't saw we blame them, since we're doing the same. That's it. I know it's not a lengthy analysis, but you guys (and gals) know I have a problem with making more of something than is really necessary. Right now, the best move to make is just being patient. Don't worry - the market's make or break levels are quite clear, and we'll point it out when they're breached. Until then, don't forget to vote yay or nay on Facebook.