Do you ever feel like the market takes on a persona of its own, and that persona is doing everything it can to torment you into making a bad decision? I do, and it sure seems that's what's going on right now. Stocks approached some key technical ceilings on Tuesday, but as has been the case since early March (and really since the beginning of the year), the bulls just haven't been willing to stick their necks out enough to get the market over the hump.
And to tell the truth, despite the market's current momentum, I'm still not sure we've sidestepped a more significant pullback. I know the market's main job is to frustrate as many people as possible as much time as possible, and one great way it could do that is to zig here just when it looks like it's going to zag.
The S&P 500 chart tells the tale. The index peaked at 1880.60 on Tuesday, once again peeling back from technical resistance at 1883. Like we've mentioned more than once lately, until 1883 is cleared we can only watch from the sidelines, hoping it happens before the bears start to growl again.
Ditto for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Though its close at 16,535 was above the first ceiling at 16,500, the more important resistance at 16,675 is still intact. Like the S&P 500, until the Dow can actually hurdle all of its ceilings, there's not really any bullish bet worth making.
If we had to venture a guess, I'd still actually predict a bullish outcome from all this rather than a bullish one, but it's only like a 60/40 proposition... not enough to actually take a swing yet. That being said, just because the broad market isn't in a bullish mode doesn't mean there aren't pockets of trade-worthy strength here and there. In fact, I believe I've spotted another such pocket that's moving upward now, independently of the rest of the market.
Off and Running
It's been on our radar for a while, and it was all but confirmed last week. As of today though, the budding rally from coal is pretty much in full bloom.
You can thank CONSOL Energy (CNX) for today's nudge. Even though CONSOL is doing its best to scale back on its coal operations, earnings were up last quarter, and coal margins were better than expected. It was the reassurance traders needed that, yes indeed, coal is on the mend. The Dow Jones Coal Index has now put some distance between itself and its ceilings at 139 and 142.
Anyway, while I was looking at the coal index chart, I ran across another - and probably somewhat related - budding industry breakout.
It's not a group that traders love to feast on like biotechs or consumer technology. But, a rally is a rally is a rally, and it looks like the industrial metals stocks are getting their second wind on a rebound effort that actually began back in mid-2013. Take a look.
Caveat: Coal stocks fall into the industrial metals category, so there's some overlap here. Coal stocks can't drag the whole industry up like it's been rising though, so there's budding non-coal strength in this chart that's happening on its own.
Anyway, I've got a feeling this rally is going to run for a while .... as in weeks, if not months. Metal stocks tend to move in tandem with metal prices, and metal prices tend to reflect opinions about the economy's broad strength. If commodity metals are moving higher (and they are now), then it's for long-term, fundamental reasons. Oh, we'll get some day to day volatility to be sure, but most of that can be shrugged off. This is longer-term stuff unfurling here,
As you can also see on the chart, there's a ton of room for the Dow Jones Industrial Metals Inded to keep rising before these stocks have to start chipping away into all-time-high territory. See, these names didn't participate in the marketwide rally in 2011 and 2012, so there should be plenty of room now to make up for lost time.
The point is, I think there's enough going on here to merit looking for a trade. I'm going to start that hunt today. Hopefully I'll have a new pick for you by the end of the week.
In the meantime, the site's regular contributors have been busy so far this week, and a trio of today's contributions are absolute must-sees.
John Udovich got the party started, asking if Rick's Cabaret (RICK) is a little more investment-worthy now that it's the last publicly-traded adult entertainment name on the playing field. If you want a quick but thorough look at RICK, this is it.
You probably knew Time Warner (TWX) was planning on spinning off its magazine division (Time, Sports Illustrated, People), but have you taken a close look at how that's all going to plan out? James Brumley did today, and points out how the lopsided distribution could create problems down the road.
Finally, Bryan Murphy made a great point - by asking a great question - regarding the potential buyout of AstraZeneca (AZN) by Pfizer (PFE). Specifically, he looks at a couple of other biotechs that could be on someone's acquisition radar, and what those potential suitors are looking for.
That's it for now. We'll be back tomorrow.