You know, at this point the market's willingness to test prior highs - coupled with its unwillingness to actually move to new highs - has become comical. It's almost like someone's got the major indices strung up like a marionette, and just when it looks like stocks are ready to break out, the puppeteer pushes stocks down just enough to deflate that enthusiasm. On the flipside, just when it starts to look like the market's going to sell off, the puppet's strings pull stocks higher again, reigniting hope.
Today's action is another perfect example of stocks dancing with recently-developed resistance without actually hurdling it.
The nearby chart of the S&P 500 says it all. Today's close at 1562.85 (and high of 1564.07) is once again right in line with the recent ceiling. This is the second day in a row the index DIDN'T hurdle that line in the sand. And also once again, the volume on the way back up today was very anemic.
And yes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average pulled the same stunt. You can look at its chart right here. Today's high was 14,559. Yesterday's high was 14,561. Monday's high was 14,563.
I know the action over the past four trading days looks basically bullish, but there's clearly something going on here that's holding the market back. Maybe that's a good thing, in the sense that this pause is giving the bulls a chance to build up some steam and prepare for a breakout move. Or, maybe this pause is simply a bigger indication that the bulls just aren't ready to go any further.
We're still leaning on the bearish side of the fence, but the fact of the matter is, the market's nothing more than range-bound right now. We can't read more into the current situation than is really there.
For the Dow, the key floor we're watching is 14,400. The S&P 500's is 1545. The ceilings are the levels we mentioned above. Until the ceilings or floors break, there's not going to be a lot of market movement worth trading. We'll let you know when the time comes.
(Still) Time to Act
Alright, I've mentioned it every day since Friday, so I'm going to assume you're as tired of hearing about it as I am talking about it. I promise this is going to be my last mention of it for a while. Here goes....
If you were in a Cadence Pharmaceuticals (CADX) trade because of our recommendation back on March 6th, then I think it's time to lock in that gain by making an exit. Not a partial exit either, but an outright and complete exit.
My rationale was - and is - that the stock's been running really, really well of late. A little too well, in fact. Yesterday's close of $6.56 translated into about a 27% since we first mentioned CADX, which is fun, but just not sustainable.
The stock was up a little today, but not much. Fans and supporters may also be quick to point out Cadence pushed up and off its low for Wednesday's session, implying the bulls are back at it. I don't agree. I still suspect we're due for a dip. As a matter of fact, I expect it even more now, after seeing what the sellers were able to do early this morning; the bounce later in the day is just a lucky break for anybody who was still holding it.
Again, I don't hate the company, and I see a lot of long-term potential with its pipeline. I just think this runup is coming to a close. If you really like it, you can buy it back at a lower price in the foreseeable future. For the time being though, I'm going to drop it until it's made a convincing bottom.
Speaking of stocks that have rallied, one of the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity's recent picks took off today. SAIC (SAI) jumped 5% following yesterday's great earnings news.
Normally I wouldn't talk about the SCN EO's open trades, since it wouldn't be fair to give you a fish that someone else paid for. But, the stock's out of reach now for anybody looking to ride the service's coattails. I guess this is just my way of letting you know you missed out on a strong move by not being a subscriber.
I still can't tell you when or where the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity service is looking to get out of SAIC; that's something just for subscribers. I can tell you there are a ton of winning trades these guys have in their portfolio right now, though, and some of them are still worth entering. Don't miss another 5%, one-day move. You can learn more about it here. Or, copy and paste the following link in your browser: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=SCN+Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/
In Case You Missed It
While the broad market may be on hold, the regular contributors at the site continue to point out individual winners and losers that no trader should miss.
Take John Udovich's look at Psychemedics (PMD) for instance. While plenty of traders were all over marijuana-growing stocks like Medical Marijuana (MJNA) or Cannabis Science (CBIS) late last year after marijuana was legalized, what these folks should have been looking for was the ancillary trends that would stem from marijuana's impending boom. That's where Psychemedics fits into the picture.
John says it all, noting "According to the company website, 85% of the drug users identified by Psychemedics would have been missed by urinalysis thanks to the much longer detection window of approximately three months and unique patented technology."
Get it? Though recreational marijuana is legal in another state (and gaining traction in others), that doesn't mean an employer has to, or would even want to, hire regular pot smokers. No matter where you stand on the legalization of hemp and marijuana, there's no way to deny that drug-testing demand is going to become a hot button.
Udovich also has some interesting growth forecasts for marijuana usage.
We also heard from James Brumley today about SemiLEDS (LEDS). If the name rings a bell, it might be because in late February he suggested the stock as a buy. Now he doesn't. In fact, he thinks it's a sell, if you happened to plow into the LED company based on his optimism. Care to know why the change of heart, and for how long he's going to suggest you steer clear of LEDS? Then check out SemiLEDs Corporation: That Was Then, & This is Now.
Speaking of what folks are publishing at the site, would you like to see some of your thoughts featured here in the newsletter? You can. Anybody with something useful to say about a stock or the broad market can post that commentary at the site. Just visit www.smallcapnetwork.com, sign in, and click on the 'Publish' button at the top of any page. You can also maintain a public trading portfolio, and cultivate your own following.
Even if you're not looking to become a full-blown financial guru, just being able to share your perspective is a lot of fun.
Anyway, that's it for today. Remember, U.S. markets are closed on Friday, so tomorrow will be the last newsletter for the week (most likely). We'll give you next week's earnings and economic calendar then.