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VOLUME
02:
ISSUE 55
SmallCap Digest Weekend Edition:
Introduction To The VIX
There is no certain way to gauge
where the market is headed. If there is then please forward us the
secret formula. However there are tools that traders and market technicians
use to make an educated guess. One of the most popular tools is the
"VIX"
which is a volatility index for the Chicago Board Options Exchange
(CBOE). It is calculated by taking a weighted average of the implied
volatility from eight calls and puts on the S&P 100 index.
VIX measures the speed of price movement
on the S&P 100 index and mainly tells traders the average
premium levels of the OEX options traded. It can turn on a dime, going
from low to high and back again similar to a stock. Although most of our
readers do not need to utilize the VIX on a daily basis we felt it was
important to understand how the VIX has been uncanny in its ability to
predict market tops and market bottoms. The next time you are wondering
where the market maybe headed, pull up a quote on the VIX by clicking
here.
The usual rule of thumb is that when
the VIX is high, it's time to buy, meaning traders will start
buying index call options. When the VIX trades at lofty levels, it signals
that options traders are betting on a continued drop in the markets by
purchasing puts and selling calls in full force. This almost always precedes
a bottom in the market, since the short-term trader is known for being
wrong on the market's direction.
Conversely, when the VIX is low
it's time to sell, meaning traders will start to buy puts because they
feel that a market selloff is on the horizon.
Currently, the VIX is very close
to 40. That means that options in general are very expensive. For buyers,
that condition spells greater premium risk and less chance for reward.
This is because the options on the OEX have a higher premium than normal,
and if the VIX were to drop, premiums could drop with it.
For instance, if the VIX were to
go from 40 to 30, option sellers would have a great chance of taking in
premium faster as volatility declines. If the VIX were to rise from 40
to 50, option buyers would have the advantage because as volatility rises,
so does the time premium in the options they hold.
VIX enables traders to gauge whether
options are cheap or expensive. If VIX trades above 30, options are considered
expensive and a selling strategy may prove better than simply buying options.
If VIX hits the low 20s, buying options
will offer greater opportunities than selling options. Either way, using
VIX to interpret the markets offers investors a tool for market timing
and assessing option values.
Take a look at the chart of the S&P
100 Index above and compare that to the chart of the VIX.
Buying whenever the VIX hits 40 or above and subsequently selling when
the indicator drop to the 20-25 range has proven to be uncanny in terms
of market timing. This doesn't mean that investors should follow
this rule of thumb blindly. Rather, the VIX should be something that
investors pay attention to when making investment decisions.
D I S C
L A I M E R :
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