News Details – Smallcapnetwork
This Pullback is More Than 'Just a Little Volatility'
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Well, where do we begin? Although this week didn't start out as a great one for stocks, even after Wednesday's pullback there was still a glimmer of hope for the bulls. After Thursday's damage though, the market sure looks like it's passed the point of no return. Yet... Yesterday we told you about a couple of technical support levels the bulls couldn't afford to let the market slip under. One of them was the S&P 500's floor at 1551-ish. The other was the NASDAQ Composite's lower 20-day Bollinger band at 3175. Both of those floors were breached today. And now that they've been broken, there's little left for the bulls grab onto to keep things from getting worse. On the flipside, there does remain one bastion of hope - the S&P 500 only managed to test its lower 20-day Bollinger band at 1535 today before the buyers pushed back. It's also unsurprising that today's low of 1536.03 is pretty much in line with the lows we've seen from the index since mid-March. That line in the sand is roughly is 1538. Point being, there's still a chance for a bounce no matter how remote it is. Just so there are no surprises, I'm not telling you the market's going to continue crashing tomorrow. In fact, I personally think it's going to give us a bounce tomorrow following the sharp 3.0% plunge for the week to-date. I just don't believe that bounce is going to push the bearish tide back in the other direction. That's bad news too. Like I mentioned on Wednesday, if the S&P 500 closes below 1551 and/or the Dow closes below 14,600 on Friday, that should pretty much convince any lingering bulls there's not going to be the last-minute game-saver we've grown accustomed to since mid-October. I'm not being a pessimist for the heck of it either. We talked about gauging the market's up-volume and down-volume back in the April 4th edition of the newsletter. We also discussed looking at the broad market's number of advancing stocks compared to declining stocks. Since we detailed the idea then, we don't need to rehash with you today. We'll just give you the update. Long story made short, the volume trend has turned bearish. So too has the advancer/decliner trend. The nearby chart explains it all. This isn't just a matter of one or two bad days for this week spooking us either. We're using a 20-day moving average line to define the trend for all four sets of data; this trend has actually been underway for nearly three weeks. Some things we can chalk up to mere volatility, but this isn't one of them. Major turns for stocks actually start well before they become obvious, and they start with subtle turns of breadth (advancers/decliners) and depth (volume). There's still that slight chance of a recovery here, but it's a long shot. Now, that's a brief analysis of the market's undertow, but if you want the proverbial 'good stuff' then you absolutely have to become a subscriber to the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity service. Stock picks, perspective, and decisive market calls are just a few of the things SCN EO members get every day.... way more than we can give you here in the free newsletter. If you want to get more out of the market, joining the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity may be the best way of doing it. Learn more about it here. Or, copy and paste the following link in your browser: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=SCN+Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/ From the Site It's been a few days since we've had a chance to highlight some of the site's most helpful content, so before we get too far behind let's take care of a little business today. First up, I know most of you have probably never heard of a little company called DexCom (DXCM). It's a manufacturer of glucose meters (aka glucometers) for diabetes patients. That's not the big deal though; a bunch of companies make some slick glucose monitors. DexCom is cool simply because it's finally merged form and function. As John Udovich told us in DexCom Brings Apple Like "Design" to Medical Devices, "It should be mentioned that clinical trials have reported up to approximately 19% improvement in overall accuracy for the Dexcom G4 PLATINUM compared to the Seven Plus by Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and approximately a 30% improvement in accuracy in the hypoglycemia range." If nothing else, John's post is worth a closer look just to see how cool DexCom has made glucose meters. Speaking of cool technology, I know a bunch of you have tablets, but did you know they're making kid-friendly tablets now? I don't mean hand-me-down iPads with some kiddie apps installed. I'm talking about hand-held computers built from the ground up to be owned, used, and abused by children. They come complete with rubber bumpers to stave off damage from the inevitable drops they'll suffer. Anyway, the top dog in the budding children's tablet game is LeapFrog (LF)... yes, the same company that makes interactive books and Leapsters (portable cartridge-based game handhelds). If you have kids between the ages of 2 and 7, then you know exactly what I'm talking about. Yeah, well, as Bryan Murphy points out, despite the fact that LeapFrog is the top name in the kiddie tablet business, the market's sure not treating the stock very kindly - shares are down 30% since September. Brumley thinks that's going to be corrected soon enough, however, as he explains in Time to Jump on LeapFrog Enterprises. By the way, did you know you can submit your own articles and analysis at the site? If you've got something to say about a stock, sector, or the market, just write it up, sign in at the site, and post it. It doesn't have to be lengthy. As long as it's well-reasoned and helpful, you may even see it featured here in the newsletter.