Wow. I'll be the first to say I don't agree with the bulls' decision to break past some key ceilings today and take the market to all-time highs. But, I'll also be the first to recommend not fighting the tape; if the buyers want to drive stocks higher, I'll gladly ride that trend.
We've got a deeper analysis of today's action and what it means below, but a couple of stocks need some attention first.
Timing is Everything
It's been a while since we took a look at any of our Featured Stocks, but I've practically been forced to fix that today - a couple of them have worked their way into a position that implies more upside is straight ahead.
One of them is Taser (TASR). This thing's been all over the map since November, and has been impossible for a trader to pin-down.... until now. That small pullback in late March (which bled into early April) reversed course pretty abruptly before making a lower low, and before even getting a chance to test its 200-day moving average line. The clincher is the way Taser shares crossed back above their 50-day moving average line today. That's a first since early February.
It's not like Taser doesn't deserve a rising stock though. The pace of stun-gun sales has been accelerating recently, with the NYPD buying 334 of them a few days ago, and the New Orleans Police Department buying 400 of them just a few days ago too. The U.S. Army bought 500 stun guns from Taser a few days before that. A lot of people are starting to think the company is setting up an earnings surprise for next quarter, and I don't disagree. It's beat estimates in three of the last four quarters with a lot less good news to talk about then. Even if it doesn't beat estimates of $0.05 per share for Q1 and $0.07 for Q2, the forward-looking P/E of 24.9 is palatable enough with Taser's projected growth rate and the underlying story.
The other Featured Stock worth a closer look now is ZBB Energy (ZBB).
Say what? If you've been following ZBB at all, then you probably know the stock's been selling off pretty hard since the beginning of the month. The selling effort is still going strong too. But, I've got a sneaking suspicion the pullback was mostly an effort to fill the gap left behind after the big bullish pop in late March. I know ZBB is still sinking today even though the gap was filled on Monday, but I'm chalking that up to residual momentum. The volume behind today's pullback is very, very light.
For any newcomers, ZBB Energy makes utility-level energy storage devices. While not a 'new' company, it's still in startup mode. It's starting to grow rapidly though, generating $7.8 million in revenue for calendar 2012 versus about $4.0 million for calendar 2011. Point being, there's a real market here, and it's growing. Some experts predict the global grid-scale battery storage market will be worth $1.17 billion this year, while other forecasters say it could be worth tens of billions of dollars by 2020. ZBB is growing into that growing market.
Just keep in mind ZBB Energy is still just a $25.6 million company, and acts like a small stock - for better or worse - from time to time.
Of course, our look at these two names begs one question: What's a Featured Stock?
In simplest terms, a Featured Stock is a company we think has more going for it than any other stocks out there right now. In our view, they have more upside potential than other choices, and we always have a handful of Featured Stocks at the site. We also strive to give them a little extra coverage and insight/commentary at the site as well as here in the newsletter, like you just read above.
Here's the thing - as helpful as our coverage of the site's Featured Stocks might be to you, it's still not as complete as the kind of analysis you're going to get from the guys over at the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity. See, where my coverage or advice on a Featured Stock may or may not come in a timely manner (if I have time to share it at all), the whole point of the SCN EO is to tell you exactly when they think it's time to get in or out of a specific stock.
Oh, by the way.... the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity service picked two new ideas today. I can't tell you what they are, but I will show you a chart of the one that's my favorite.
On the nearby graph we see a string of well-supported (red) higher lows, a move above the 20-day moving average (blue) in late March, and some serious pressure on the 50-day moving average line (purple) as a resistance level. I've seen this turnaround setup too many times before to not expect a big breakout take shape here. All it will take is a nudge above that 50-day moving average line, and the bullish fireworks should start in earnest.
If you want to know what the stock is, you'll just have to subscribe to the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity service. Don't worry about the cost, though - the free two-week trial thing is still going on. You can't lose, and you just might win big. Learn more about it here. Or, copy and paste the following link in your browser: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=SCN+Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/
New Highs. Now What?
First things first. I told you yesterday my mental line in the sand for the S&P 500 was the resistance level at 1570. The index had no problem blowing right past that ceiling today. The Dow didn't have any trouble moving above its ceiling at 14,670 either. Technically speaking, that's the bullish sign I told you we needed to wait for. Well, we got it, in spades. There's a dark side to today's bullishness though.
Mind if I get on the soapbox for a moment?
Don't get me wrong - I love seeing stocks move higher like they did today. But, the bulls have GOT to learn how to pace themselves. It's big jumps like this one that give the would-be profit-takers little choice but to start locking down their gains. It's also big moves like today's pop that can end up turning into major tops, sometimes called "blow off" tops. Think of it as a last hurrah for stocks, culminating in one red-hot move, then completely fizzling out. To see a blow off top on the same day the S&P 500 touched a new record high would be a perfectly-fitting time to see a top made too.
On the flipside, the fact that traders didn't all rush to a blindly-bullish consensus today implies the buyers know there's still some risk here. That skepticism is actually healthy, in the grand scheme of things.
I'm using the VIX to come to this conclusion. If you're not familiar with the VIX, it's a fear gauge - the higher it is, the more afraid investors are, and the lower it goes, the more confident people are. Most of the time the VIX isn't telling us anything of interest. Every now and then though - when it gets to an extreme high or low - it says fear or confidence have reached unhealthy levels. That's when reversals materialize... the market zigs just when everyone thinks it's going to zag.
What's that got to do with today? The VIX should have plunged to new lows, with investors being overly-excited about the big jump from stocks. That surge in confidence would also likely be an opportunity for the bears to pull the rug out from underneath the market (when it expected it the least).
Care to guess what didn't happen today? the VIX didn't get crushed, signaling the bulls aren't dangerously optimistic here.
To be clear, the VIX is still at abnormally low levels at this time, and I still suspect we'll pay the price for it sooner than later. For the time being though, there's a little room for the rally to extend.
The (my) bottom line is, today's jump answered some questions, but raised others. I still wouldn't be making big bets here. Let's see if the buyers remain as bullish when really pressed.