News Details – Smallcapnetwork
We're Selling These 2 Stocks, & Holding On To These 3 Names
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Happy Tuesday folks. Another dud for the market today, so with little to talk about market-wise, we can keep this short and sweet and take care of that update on our open positions. After that there are a couple of other things I want to show you, but let's take care of business first ... like booting a couple of names. You're Outta Here Let's get down to it. We're dumping Kearny Financial (KRNY) and Global Indemnity (GBLI) from our mental/hypothetical portfolio. Just so there's no confusion or misunderstanding, I have no particular beef with either company. My only beef is with the stocks themselves, which just aren't going anywhere. I know I could make the case that "not losing" isn't necessarily a bad thing, and both stocks may take off in the foreseeable future. In my experience though, if a trade isn't getting the traction you expected from the get-go, you're fighting an uphill battle. Worse, the longer you leave your sheets hanging in the wind, the more Murphy's law is apt to kick in. If there was a profit cushion with KRNY or GBLI, I might be willing to stick with it. With nothing more than break-evens as of right now though, we don't have a strong enough hand to try and play either one here. I honestly don't if we're locking in a loss or a gain for either trade, but I do know it's no more than a 5% gain or loss whatever it is for either position... not enough to worry about either way. You're Stickin' Around If memory serves me correctly, the exit of Global Indemnity and Kearny Financial leaves us with Commercial Metals (CMC), Aqua America (WTR), and Walter Energy (WLT). None of them have been all that hot of late, but all three of them look like they desperately want to get going, IF the market could just get something going. Then again, I'm not even sure the market has to get going for any of these three names to take off. The one I'm most excited about right now is Walter Energy. Yes, I realize WLT tried to clear the 200-day moving average line for the past week and a half, and being unable to make any progress at all ended up pulling back on Tuesday. I don't think the bulls are giving up, however. I think they're just pulling back and biding their time. The former resistance line at $16.34 became a support line with Tuesday's dip, and the 20-day moving average line (blue) acted as support too. No new from Walter Energy lately. As for Commercial Metals, I really, really hope you acted on our advice from October 15th. If you pulled the trigger on the 16th [the first day you could have acted on the idea], you're now up about 12%, and still going strong. That's more than enough unrealized profit to scoot your stop loss up to at least something a little better than a breakeven. But, it's not enough to merit taking your profit just yet. Though I'm not sure it'll happen, I think the odds of more upside are good enough to merit sticking with the trade for now. No news from Commercial Metals either. Finally, the entry into Aqua America couldn't have been more unfortunately timed. We put it on the table back on the 6th. You could have gotten in on the 7th, at the opening price of $24.10. The next day shares hit a low of $24.32. Ugh. Here's the thing... though not a step in the right direction, shares bounced back pretty well that day, and have held onto that rebound. It's not great, but I can live with it. As long as Aqua America holds up above the 50-day moving average line (purple), I'll give it the benefit of any doubt. If we do see a close under the 50-day moving average line though, I'm pulling the plug. This is no environment to be forgiving and lax. If you want to know the reason Aqua America took a hit, it was the post-earnings response. The company beat estimates by a penny, but fell short on the revenue front. I don't think traders quite knew how to interpret the mixed message, selling it initially, but then undoing the damage later in the same day. I'm telling you, earnings miss or not, the water utility stocks are built to last. I'd be surprised if the bigger uptrend didn't get rekindled here. I've Got Nothing, But... I'd love to be able to pass along another trading idea to you to replace Kearny Financial and Global Indemnity. Honestly though, I'm just not finding anything I see worth taking a swing on. That's apparently a problem unique to me, however, because our friends over at the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity rolled out another new trading idea just today. As usual, I can't tell you what it is; it wouldn't be fair to the SCN EO's current subscribers. Also as usual though, I can tell you how to find out what that pick is, for free - sign up for the free two-week trial, which gives you access to all the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity's newsletter archives and portfolio (current and closed trades). In the meantime, I'll just tease you with a picture that's at least partially related to the SCN EO's pick from today... the lovable mechanical buddies from Star Wars, R2-D2 and C3-PO. Curious? I can't say I blame you. I'll just say the company in question may be making these two droids more like scientific fact than science fiction. Here's how to get the free trial . Or, copy and paste the following link in your browser: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=SCN+Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/ Stuck in the Mud Once again there's not a lot to talk about, market-wise, other than just saying stocks are still going nowhere, as traders are unsure what to make of anything right now. The S&P 500 is still range-bound between 1753.5 and 1775.8, and until the index breaks free of those confines, anything you and I talk about here is nothing buy hypothetical. My only concern here is just how low the VIX has gotten over the past few days. Things don't usually end well when complacency gets this high. Here's the chart - talk to you Wednesday (hopefully with something more to discuss).