News Details – Smallcapnetwork
The Deck is Still (Mostly) Stacked Against the Bulls
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Welcome back from the weekend, everyone. Before we get to the meat of today's edition, there are a couple of housekeeping items we need to get out of the way. First and foremost, don't forget tomorrow's -- Tuesday's -- conference call for Oakridge Global Energy Solutions (OGES). It's going to take place at 2:00 pm EST. Bryan Murphy offers up the call-in details here, along with a preview of what the company expects in the way of revenue for the first quarter. Remember, Tuesday's conference call isn't an earnings call. It's a chance for the company to really describe, in detail, where it's been and where it's going. As much work as we've done digging up all the relevant details on OGES (like our research report right here), I've got a feeling we're going to be hearing a lot of new stuff during the call. Only one way to find out. The other housekeeping item: We won't be publishing anything on Friday, as markets are closed in observance of Good Friday. We'll be publishing as usual on Thursday and Monday, however. OK, let's get going with today's commentary, beginning with some reader feedback. It's All Relative We've said this before, but we can't say it often enough - if you've got questions and comments about anything we publish here in the newsletter (even if you disagree with something we've said), feel free to send it in. Although we don't always respond here in a public forum, we do read every piece of e-mail we get and respond when appropriate. Anyway, this is what Bernadette had in response to Friday's discussion about how small caps and large caps were rebounding at different paces: First of all thank you for your newsletter. "If you don't mind I would like to make a comment regarding your following observation: 'It's not hard to figure out small caps are still lagging large caps, on a relative basis as well as on an absolute basis.' According to your charts the S&P500 made its lowest Feb. low at -9 and recovered so far to +1,5. Distance covered: 10.5% The Russell 2000 made its lowest low at -14 and recovered so far to -1,5. Distance covered: 12.5% Whether relative or absolute I wouldn't call a runner lagging just because he has more km to run than others. On the contrary the Russell 2000 seems to be the faster runner if you compare the distance covered during the same time frame." Thanks Bernadette. You know, I thought about that very thing before penning Friday's comments, but opted to keep things simple. I suppose I should have opted to paint the whole picture, since once again our readers have proven they're smarter than the average trader. While you said it, there were likely a bunch of other people thinking it. If you don't understand what Bernadette's saying, in simplest terms she just means comparing the recent performance of S&P 500 to the Russell 2000 is like comparing apples and oranges, since each index started the February 11th rally at different depths of losses leading up to that low. It's easier to snap back with a big bounce when the pullback setting up that bounce is similarly big. Well, since you pseudo-asked, here's the rest of the story... a chart that compares all the major market caps from February 11th, and a chart that compares all the major market cap groups since the December 1st peak. Here's the relative performance since early last month. Here's the relative performance since early December. What does it mean? Well, technically it means large caps are still the stronger, preferred bet, while small caps remain the least desirable option. That indicates a defensive mindset, though it doesn't necessarily mean bearishness in inevitable. Only time will really tell if this new leadership from small caps is just a fortunate setup or an indication that investors are starting to think aggressively. It will take a pullback and then a rebound effort to really figure out how serious the small cap buyers are. This is how a "real" bullish rally effort would get started though... with small caps taking the lead. I think, however, for the time being we'll continue to lean toward a "this isn't the ideal picture of strength" theory, mainly because even though the Russell 2000 is leading the way off recent lows, it's still nowhere near clearing some of the technical hurdles like the 200-day moving average line the S&P 500 already has. That's not an opinion we're getting married to just yet. Thanks for the question/comment, Bernadette. We may not have noticed how technically behind the eight ball the Russell 2000 was had you not brought up what you brought up... even though that wasn't quite the point you were making. It's kind of funny how a good question or comment can lead to two more discoveries we weren't even trying to make. I honestly could say more about how the interplay between large caps and small caps tells you a great deal about the market's true health, but that's more of a higher-level concept that's better left to John Monroe and the Elite Opportunity team who have more time and room to do this kind of analysis justice. Here's how to get the EO newsletter. Now or Never Yes, the market was up today, but just barely. And, it closed off of its highs, telling us what few buyers pulling the trigger on Monday (volume was alarmingly low) didn't have a lot of conviction. Makes sense. As we've been explaining for a while now, there's a major layer of technical resistance immediately above that should provide a headwind. Today's weakness is just the manifestation of that resistance. The chart below speaks for itself. The NASDAQ Composite is hitting a similar headwind. Don't hear the wrong message. The market may well blast through all that resistance yet. We're just saying this pause should serve as a not-so-subtle reminder that nothing is a foregone conclusion. It's entirely possible the market could roll over here, or worse, just waffle around between support and resistance - and there's plenty of that too - for the next few weeks. That said, while the market as a whole may be on the verge of stagnating, we're seeing glimmers of strength from certain industries. The Elite Opportunity actually issued a trade on one of these sectors today. I can't tell you which one. I can't even give you a hint. I can show you a chart, however, that might just whet your appetite. Veteran traders will recognize this pattern as one that has set up a slingshot kind of effect. Once the chart get the nudge it needs, it should come roaring back. It's the kind of setup that you usually don't want to chase. It's still not too late to become an Elite Opportunity subscriber and get in on this trade, but it will be too late pretty soon. Here's what you need to do.