Following yesterday's edition, the markets snapped back into the close after early morning fears we were on the verge of implosion over continued concerns regarding the Eurozone. This theme has become very consistent of late to the point where a major counter move could be in the cards very soon. We mentioned it yesterday as a thrusting move. Once the markets have had enough chopping and indecision, they usually start thrusting in one direction or the other.
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Another way of putting it is when a volatile market becomes too predictable or too obvious, something major usually happens that washes out one side's sentiment and leaves that camp behind in a big way. The question is, will it be the Bulls or the Bears? Right now, we've got a score of 2-2 between the two, and we're now in the last inning.
Since the market is always littered with speculation and supporting arguments going in opposite directions, I thought we'd provide another forward look today at two very hot topics, Apple and the NASDAQ. I've been paying close attention to analysts and talking heads in recent days regarding these two topics and I've determined you're probably not going to find what we tell you anywhere else, unless you're a fly on the wall at the Goldman Sach's trading desk.
First, we pointed out yesterday that the NASDAQ in recent weeks has continued to make higher lows and higher highs. This has been the same for both the DOW and the S&P. Anyone can look at those charts and see that without too much savvy. However, we also pointed out that back in the summer of last year, the chart pattern almost mirrors what's going on now and the result ended up being a sharp move lower followed by a huge counter move higher. Will history repeat itself?
I've included a daily chart here of the NASDAQ Composite once again. Something changed with Thursday's high and yesterday's low that is well worth pointing out here today. We're seeing what's called a triangle wedge developing. Notice the blue trend lines here converging toward each other? The last time this happened and the wedge was broken, the initial knee jerk reaction was to the downside. The NASDAQ sold off hard, but was eventually met with a tremendous amount of support, thus taking the markets much higher.
I know this sounds counterintuitive, however, that's just how the markets love to work. Bottom line is we believe the best thing for the markets' mid-term outlook would be for the major indexes to seriously spook investors in the short-term. Should this wedge be broken to the downside, we're going to be looking for a capitulation point to jump in and take advantage of a very unexpected rally. Conversely, should the wedge be broken to the upside, I wouldn't be running out jumping for joy thinking the worst is over.
The markets' absolutely love to trade inversely to what the masses think when it's all said and done. So, how does Apple's earnings after the close today play into all of this?
If you've been a SCN Member for any extended period of time, you know we believe that tech has led every bullish charge since the bottom of '09. The NASDAQ 100 (^NDX) consists of the top 100 NASDAQ stocks that make up the index with Apple (AAPL) being the index's darling. Today, after the close, NASDAQ's darling takes center stage and reports second quarter numbers.
I've tried to determine through a fair amount of analysis whether or not Apple's numbers are going to take the stock higher or lower, and to be perfectly honest, I keep coming up with conflicting data and analysis. You've got everyone on and off the Street looking to play Apple into their earnings report today. For the most part, investors are betting that Apple is going to have another fine quarter, while sell side analysts continue to paint a gloomy picture for Apple's stock in the near-term.
I've said many times... bulls make money, bears make money but pigs get slaughtered. Greed is also one of the seven deadly sins. Shares of AAPL have experienced a tremendous run for a very long time. Yes, it's the darling stock of America. The late Steve Job's defied all critics with his reshaping of the Company over the last decade. Roughly ten years ago, back when our site was the SmallCap Digest, we recommended Apple to our readers at $15 per share on the heels of their initial launch of the IPod. The stock has since provided investors with astronomical returns, so don't get me wrong, I love Apple... as a Company, but not as a stock right now.
It's important to remember nothing goes up in a straight line forever. At some point, even the best of companies get long in the tooth and find themselves either running into resistance for one reason or another. I believe Apple is approaching that level now. Sure, today's numbers are likely going to be a catalyst for the way the stock trades on a very short-term basis, but I've decided the way to play the stock isn't to make a bet on today at all, but rather wait until after they report, see how the stock behaves and trade it from there.
In our opinion, here's how it all ties together. I heard a few talking heads yesterday suggesting that how goes Apple, so goes the market. I couldn't disagree more. Yes, on an extremely short-term basis, Apple is going to affect how this market moves. However, I most definitely disagree that Apple's earnings report today is going to determine where this market is headed for the mid-term. As a matter of fact, should Apple beat their numbers and trade up, I'm betting the exuberance isn't going to last long because the underlying economic landscape is far more important than one company's earnings report.
Should Apple disappoint, it's likely going to send a shockwave throughout the markets and secure a short-term doom and gloom scenario, but again, one company's earnings does not make up the U.S. economy or solidify global concerns for the long-term.
We're going to let the amateurs play Apple today. Let's let them make their bets and watch them either pound the table letting us all know how brilliant they were (when in fact they just got lucky), or we'll watch them put their tails between their legs, licking their wounds, thinking they should have never got involved because they simply didn't have enough of a context for their trade.
We are as opportunistic as anyone when it comes to trading or investing, however, when there's not enough of a context for a trade, that's usually a recipe for disaster.
Sure, there's obviously going to be winners and losers post close today, but how this market reacts to all of this is likely going to give us a contrarian opportunity when it's all said and done. An opportunity that's likely going to help us make a heck of a lot more money in the weeks ahead than just the profits to be made betting on Apple's numbers.
If you absolutely have to play AAPL's options into the close today, just be very cognizant of the premiums that have been built into the price of those options, it's ridiculous. Sometimes it's better to be out wishing you were in, than in wishing you were out. Nevertheless, if you're betting on Apple today, good luck. You just might need it.