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VOLUME
03: ISSUE 19
The
Yacht in the Anaconda
I'm
a pretty simple fellow. As one who lives in the earthquake zone on the
West Coast, I find as middle age greets me every morning now when I awake,
I don't covet material things to the extent I did in my 20's and 30's.
There is, however, one thing I really want: a fishing boat. And I expect
a lot of other boomers want one too.
Different
people have different visions of boating life. One sailor from around these
parts bought a large cabin cruiser a few years ago. He then parked it at
a marina, removed the engines and put in a wine cellar. Now that's a true
renaissance man. I, however, just want to fish.
Much as RV sales have seen good growth
over the past few years, I believe that this will spread to encompass boats
as well. The company that seems to be the leader as this trend develops
is MarineMax (HZO: NYSE). With nearly 60 locations in 14 states, there's
little chance you won't trip over a MarineMax retailer/boat brokerage if
there's water nearby. Handling all the major brands, including SeaRay and
Whaler-sales of which account for 65 percent of revenues-the company is
also a distributor for big boats such as the 100-foot beauties made by
Brunswick Hatteras Yachts.
What is a poop deck?
Surprisingly, the sales of big yachts
have been quite buoyant of late. There is still serious money out there.
The pickup in transactions involving larger boats offset some sales softness
in those types of boats that the rest of us buy.
MarineMax
trades at $11 and has a market cap of $170 million. With a September year-end,
the company posted 2002 sales of $540 million, up roughly 10 percent over
fiscal 2001, but down from $550 million in 2000. For the first six months
of fiscal 2003, sales are up 10 percent over the same period 2002-- to
$257 million. Earnings for 2002 were $1.12 per share. They're forecast
to be the same for 2003 and around $1.20 per share for fiscal 2004. The
company's CEO, William H. McGill Jr., has guided that he expects MarineMax
to meet that $1.10 to $1.20 for this fiscal year. The numbers give a price/earnings
both now and against the future consensus numbers of around 10 times. I
suspect the conservative ratio is due to the perceived vagaries of the
boat market --a view that's consistent with any sector that might be considered
luxury. Growth of the market could raise that ratio nicely in the future.
Technically, the shares have posted
higher lows and higher highs over the past 3 years. A run to the $13 level
could be in the cards within the next six months.
Titanic-like quality sans the
iceberg
That
said, the demographics should work to MarineMax's advantage. Retirees and
younger boomers have always dwelled on what they will do with themselves
come the golden years. Yours truly, and I suspect other retiree wannabes,
likely intend to do a lot of fishing and boating. Lifestyle concerns, as
well as conspicuous consumption, have been characteristics of the group
since the eighties. I doubt that will change as the pig moves through the
python.
As is the case with most lifestyle
retailers, especially those dealing with discretionary or high-end items,
MarineMax tends to want to keep in touch with the customer through a corporate
club or association. This way, loyalty is built and maintained, and cross-selling
opportunities become possible. Boats are high maintenance and subject to
expensive service needs as well as eventual replacement as are cars and
RV's.
The quest for quality
Boomers,
unlike our children, tend to seek out quality and will remain loyal if
the service and aftercare are there. Bright shiny objects and loud noises
less attract us, so to speak, when making purchase decisions. While retailers'
focus may have to change as we move through the next couple of decades,
for now the boomers have the money and will spend it in places that treat
them well. Then they'll return as repeat customers.
And as we all know, the repeat customer
is not only the manna of business, it is the Holy Grail.
Seriously, though, you really do
want a boat, don't you?
Float those emails our way-here:
editor@smallcapnetwork.com.
We're going to write-up a semi-regular discussion of them every few weeks.
The stock or strategy we next profile may well be the one you've brought
to our attention.
D I S C
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