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VOLUME
02:
ISSUE 24
Small Cap Digest Trading Alert:
Axcan Pharmaceuticals
Our
trading alert is on Axcan Pharmaceuticals (AXCA)
a
company SmallCap Digest subscribers have heard of before. Axcan
markets a broad line of pharmaceutical products used in the treatment of
a variety of gastrointestinal diseases and disorders. The company has a
very impressive drug pipeline currently developing five products for nine
indications, eight of which are in phase II or III studies. In 2001
the company produced $104.55 million in revenue and expects $129 mill in
2002 and $142 in 2003. Earnings per share were $0.31 in 01, est of
$0.47 in 02 and $0.56 in 03.
The reason for the trading alert
is based on three related events.
Secondary Filing
NDA For Barrett's Esophagus
Wall Street Analysts
Secondary Offering
Axcan just recently filed to sell
4.5 million shares to help pay for the acquisition of Enteris and bulk
up the balance sheet. The offering was very warmly received with
the company selling 5
million shares at $11.50 per share. In addition, the underwriters
of the secondary offering exercised
their over-allotment option and purchased from Axcan an additional 750,000
common shares. In a week when biotechs were getting hammered,
it was very impressive that Axcan was able to price the offering at such
a minimal discount to the market and also having such strong demand.
Selling 5,750,000 shares brought roughly $66 million of which approximately
$12 million will be used to pay off the Enteris acquisition.
That leaves about $54 million in
the bank which will be earmarked for sales and marketing of newly approved
drugs and possibly an acquisition.
NDA For Barrett's Esophagus
Axcan is expected to file a new
drug application (NDA) for the treatment of Barrett's Esophagus with
Photofrin.
The filing is expected before the end of March with approval coming in
September of this year. The secondary offering gives Axcan a nice
war chest to fund the sales and marketing of Photofrin for Barrett's Esophagus.
The fact that Axcan raised $66 million leads us to believe everything is
on track for the NDA filing. This filing should pop the stock anywhere
from 10%-20%.
Wall Street Analysts
J.P. Morgan, Thomas Weisel Partners
LLC, UBS Warburg LLC, National Bank Financial Inc. and SunTrust Capital
Markets, Inc. served as the managers of the offering. All of them
currently have coverage on Axcan except for UBS Warburg which means there
is a very high likelihood that the investment bank initiates coverage.
In case our subscribers forgot, fees for banks equal coverage for companies.
Currently, the estimates the analysts
have for Axcan do not include additional FDA approvals. Once the
NDA is filed perhaps the analysts will have the heart to upgrade or even
send out some positive notes on the company.
JP Morgan and SunTrust Capital already
have issued some positive notes early this am and it will be a matter of
time before the rest follow.
Conclusion
The catalyst is an NDA filing which
will prompt analysts' upgrades and the initiation of coverage by UBS.
The UBS coverage may come before or after the filing but due to its involvement
with the secondary it would be almost impossible for them not to give Axcan
coverage. The company itself is poised to do very well in the future
but this trading alert is based on events we feel are in the near future.
Some SmallCap Digest subscribers may decide this is a long term
hold as opposed to a trading alert. Either way the floor on this
stock should be in the $11.50-$12.00 level. Considering that the
secondary was priced at $11.50 it would take a catastrophic event for the
stock to go below that level.
A break above the 50 day moving average
at around $13.00 dollars will form a cup and handle chart pattern.
The combination of an NDA filing and a barrage of positive analyst notes
will help push Axcan past its 52 week high of $14.58.
D I S C
L A I M E R :
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