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VOLUME
04: ISSUE 103
Feature:
Of Hogmanay, Predictions and Reader Kudos.
As
we sneak up on Hogmanay, thought I would share a representative email and
some thoughts for 2005. Particularly a couple or three picks we think will
see some decent daylight in the coming months.
First off, Michael writes:
"I
must say your picks are among the most accurate across the industry. Your
market insights are also very timely, and greatly appreciated. Honestly,
I am currently paying money for services that are no where as accurate
as yours. My one wish for the new-year is for your team to start
off with some real "penny stocks" pick. By penny stocks, I mean some gems
that are at, or near 0.01 or less. I know these are probably very risky
picks, but I have extreme confidence in your abilities to dig deep, and
pull a few out of the pit holes. I look at your service as the ultimate
research firm for the small investor. Without your service we would not
even know that most of these companies exist; moreover to invest in them.
Thanks for your outstanding service, and wishing you all the best for the
coming year".
This email was one of the many kind
missives that readers took the time to write. While we are appreciative,
we are by no means sitting around popping corks. There is much work to
do in 2005 and we look forward to the challenge.
Not so much...
As far as 1-cent stocks are concerned,
I sincerely doubt we'll find any that pass our requirements. We are always
looking for companies that have prospects and the potential to warrant
the varying degrees of investor risk characteristic of the smallcap market.
By the time a stock is trading at 1 cent, the evil genie is likely out
of the bottle. There are, frankly, just too many other good ideas out
there to take a less than calculated risk for the sake of owning a slug
of something that is likely doomed.
The other request I have is for readers
to please not send in names of stocks they own and that we don't follow
for an individual opinion. While I am flattered to be asked, most we don't
follow and therefore have no opinion. We don't ever want to give false
hope, so we rarely offer or even have an opinion on these babies.
That said, sometimes a reader will
send in detailed information and thoughts regarding a stock or sector and
that can be of use. We profiled a few companies last year on that basis.
We aren't investment advisors. We're merely a publication that illuminates
ideas, strategies and news through opinion and comment.
2005 Predictions
I don't really have any. I made some
last year for fun and while most came to pass in one form or another, they
didn't advance the market (except perhaps the breakup of Ben and Jen) and
I'm trying to get away from this calendar mentality we have become enamored
with. Any one who merely buys stocks on January 1st and sells on December
31st will likely always lose money.
Put up or shut out.
What I did realize over this year
was that even though the markets were relatively flat, good stock picks
work no matter how lackluster the backdrop. Do I think the market will
be up next year? Yes. Do I care how much? Sure, but I'm more interested
in finding great ideas that have lots of cash, minimal debt and killer
apps and products that set rising potential in motion. If a company doesn't
execute or the market moves against them, cash and low or no debt is always
the best defense for shareholders.
And you should also no that no company
we follow has any editorial influence over what we write. If any of them
stumble, do anything untoward or there is negative news, you'll know. And
you should know too that we pass on more companies than we follow, by a
large margin. We are beholding only to our readership. The companies we
do follow have to prove, both initially and on an ongoing basis, that they
are worthy of our, and ultimately your, attention. Period.
Here endeth that rant.
For 2005 we will obviously attempt
to bring you more great names for your consideration. Will they all work?
Hopefully yes. But this is the smallcap market. Anyone who has ever taken
so much as a small punt in that arena knows the risks. Or should. We play
the percentages in that we plan for more to work than not by varying degrees.
So far, so good as our last piece detailed.
We are entering our fourth full year
of publication. I'm excited. While most of the names we are currently following
were detailed in our last article, some new names give us equal excitement.
Keep
an eye on these three...
Payment
Data Systems (OTCBB:
PYDS). We brought this payment solutions company to you November
12th at 27 cents. Out of the gate, the company has inked decent
contracts, has excellent revenue potential and has scooted up to 34 cents.
Our technical threshold for breakout was 33 cents, so a bit more work here
as well as new contract announcements in 2005 bodes well for this one.
The sector seems buoyant and we feel that PYDS will participate nicely
over the next 6-12 months.
Giant Motorsports (OTCBB:
GMOS). On December
17th, we brought this cool power sports company to the readership
at $1.62. Now $1.80, the growth story here is that the company has given
guidance that it plans to do $100 million in revenue for 2005. With a current
market cap of under $20 million, the potential for GMOS evidenced by demographic
trends, its acquisitive business plan and depth of management makes this
a compelling story for those who both love motorcycles as well as look
for those classic growth stories.
Informatica (NASDAQ:
INFA). November
10th saw the shares of this data integration firm at $7.48. Now
$8, the shares haven't rocketed, but with $234 million in cash, no debt
and a projected 5-yr annual growth rate of 15 percent plus, the company
is extremely well positioned to prosper. Data is the currency of all things
tech and its manipulation represents, IMHO, the single most important facet
of developing a business plan that maximizes sales and lowers costs. INFA
is right in the thick of it.
I've taken up enough of your time.
Thanks for your attention and support. We appreciate it and will continue
to earn it with every issue of the SmallCap Digest.
Oh yes, and you really need to keep
in frequent touch with the SCBLOG.
Wouldn't want to miss anything, would you?
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