Dow
Jones Utilities
275.81
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11:31
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Dow
Jones Spot
193.28
+
0.00
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Philadelphia
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VOLUME
01:
ISSUE 02
Amex
Oil
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Feature:
Silver - No longer in gold's shadow.
Gold prices move--to a greater or lesser
degree-- on almost an emotional level. Silver, on the other hand, while
viewed by most investors as a precious metal play, is more correctly aligned
to the fortunes and the vagaries of other industrial commodities such as
copper and aluminum. While price movement of the two shiny metals tend
to be lumped together--especially as gold rises--silver's diversity of uses
makes it both a commodity play as well as a precious metal investment.
That said, it would be extremely
useful to readers--if you haven't already--to take a moment and read our
recent Gold
article. Many of the parameters detailed there will have direct
implications on the continued appreciation of the silver price.
As we sift through companies
that we believe will be of interest to SmallCap Digest Natural Resource
readers, it is quickly becoming apparent that a top quality junior silver
producer may prove very compelling.
To that end, as we finish up our
search, be assured that our first gold/silver Trading Alert will be forthcoming.
We intend to bring the readership an exciting junior mining idea in the
next week or so.
Introducing...
We are very excited to welcome Ben
Johnson, President of Portland --based First Securities and one of the
foremost experts in mining equities as an advisor to our new offering;
The SmallCap Digest Natural Resource newsletter. He brings our readership
over 30 years of experience as a leading analyst and broker specializing
in the mining and resource sectors. Mr. Johnson handles managed accounts
for high-net worth individuals, trades foreign and domestic securities
and arranges private placements for junior mining companies. We have known
Ben for years and recommend that you contact him with questions or for
help investing in mining stocks at (800) 547-4898 or by email at BENJGOLD@aol.com.
The
above chart evidences that the price rise in silver is due to many of the
same factors as those affecting gold--lower US$, deficits, supply/demand
imbalances. It is the latter--supply and demand--that should prove most beneficial
for silver--perhaps even more so than for gold.
Demand rises, supply doesn't.
Annual demand for silver ranges around
850 million ounces per year. Mining meets about 600 million ounces while
the balance, historically, has been made up of the recycling or reuse of
scrap as well as government sales of previous production or what is known
as 'above ground' silver. Apparently, the supply extraneous to actual annual
production is waning and government sales have lessened if not curtailed
completely--at least for now. Of the 68 percent of new supply made up by
annual mining production, roughly 30 percent comes from primary silver
mines.
Silver supply/demand is in deficit
and will likely continue so for the foreseeable future.
At SmallCap Digest Natural Resource,
we aren't about simply predicting gold or, frankly, silver prices. In totality,
we're about picking smallcap companies for your consideration against favorable
technical and fundamental backdrops--whether precious metal, technology
or biotech-- that we believe will profit most. Of course, our picks are
always in combination with our 3 "M's"--money, management and moxie.
We believe a significant opportunity
to profit from a bullish silver (and gold) market, is at hand.
Silver
shares: 2 to 1 move against the metal.
There is little doubt that as gold
goes, silver will follow. The price of silver has risen nicely--50 percent--since
the metal broke out roughly a year ago. Stocks such as senior silver miners
Hecla (NYSE: HL)
and Pan American Silver (NASDAQ:
PAAS) have seen more that 100 percent increases in their respective
share prices over the same period, proving our previous observation that
whether gold or silver, stocks tend to outperform the underlying metal.
I'll wager you didn't know that top
three silver producing countries are Mexico, Peru and Australia. Interestingly,
the US is ranked fourth. Although most of the metal is produced as a by-product
of the mining of other metals, only about 25 percent of supply comes from
mines where silver is the primary commodity. We are zeroing in on ideas
within that 25 percent.
Silver: More diverse than gold.
And safer?
Silver has more industrial uses than
gold. Indeed, industrial uses make up 40 percent of demand, while jewelry/silverware
and photographic applications make up roughly 30 percent and 25 percent
respectively. The balance is made up of coinage--primarily the US--and production
hedging. While these numbers tend to remain fairly constant, there has
been a decline in photographic uses with the trend away from film to digital
cameras.
As with gold, the bigger bang for
investors is identifying appropriate junior silver mining stocks. There
are only a handful of these companies worldwide. Accumulating a position
in one or more of these unique companies should be of interest to precious
metal aficionados as well as those who feel, as we do, that some speculative
exposure to the precious metals sector is warranted.
The
US dollar continues to look ugly, although it has perked up slightly of
late. Ugly is good for precious metals.
Further, Warren Buffet figures twice
in our silver thesis. First, in his latest note to shareholders, it's apparent
that Mr. B is still bearish on the greenback as he continues to move a
few more billion of cash and equivalents into foreign currencies as a hedge
against what he sees as further US$ weakness. As well, Mr. Buffett has
been an active purchaser of silver for the last decade. His buddy Bill
Gates owns a 10 percent stake in the afore-mentioned Vancouver-based Pan
American Silver.
There is little doubt that significant
opportunities have arisen in the junior mining sector as the prices of
gold and silver move higher.
We'll bring you proof and a nifty
idea within a week or so. Promise.
We
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