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VOLUME 07: ISSUE 28
Hot
Pockets & Cold Corners - There's Opportunity in the Obscure
Everyone
had a chance to catch your breath? I, for one, am glad the weekend is here.
The past couple of weeks have been a frenzy, so I'm happy to take a couple
of days just to regroup without feeling I have to keep my eyes glued to
the market.
One
of the reasons I'm grateful.....the Small Cap Network Newsletter has been
in high gear recently, delivering wave after wave of some pretty hard-hitting
news regarding our companies. Today's topic should be a nice, macro look
at a bigger picture.
The
other reason, though, is the market's up-ending a couple of weeks ago,
and then this past week's bounce. To be blunt, I'm already kinda' tired
of the "is the market at a bottom yet?" discussion. We've added
our two cents on the matter, and will surely have more to say as things
develop. But, nobody really knows the answer, and probably won't
until after the fact. So there - enough already.
In
the interest of your sanity (and mine), let's instead spend a little time
looking at something deliberately different this weekend - sectors
and industries. Or to be more specific, let's see if any of the market's
obscure pockets managed to circumvent the plunge or rebound by doing
their own thing instead.
Why
bother? Because statistically, a stock is just as likely to trade in
tandem with its peers as it is to be priced based on its individual fundamentals.
So, maybe there's an opportunistic sector or industry trend in place that's
been otherwise obscured.
Some
Good, Some Not So Good...
This
isn't necessarily a comprehensive list of worthy sector trends (and certainly
our opinions of them aren't guaranteed to be of any help). However, in
my experience, there's often a valid reason when things are gaining or
losing value while the market is headed in the opposite direction.
By
the way, there aren't major indices for these groupings - they're based
on the standard industry classification (or SIC) system. All the exchange-traded
stocks lumped into a particular SIC group essentially 'made' the aggregate
index we're looking at. We've also added a few stock tickers to the discussion,
just to provide some context.
And
just so you know, the comparison we're using is the 'market' bullishness
between February 1st and February 26th, the bearishness between February
27th and March 5th, and the bullishness (again) between March 6th and March
9th. If a group of stocks wasn't swayed for better or for worse during
the entire time, I'd like to know about it.
Crops
- Never in a million years would I have guessed we'd be having a serious
discussion about the 'crops' industry within the Small Cap Network Newsletter,
but here it is....these names have been on a tear since January, and didn't
even flinch two weeks ago. I have no idea why, and maybe there's no reason
it all. All I can see - and all I really need to see - is how these
stocks are going higher. You can thank Fresh Del Monte Produce (NYSE:
FDP) for the lion's share of the strength, but Landec Corp. (NASDAQ:
LNDC) played a role too. The Del Monte chart looks especially
interesting, as the last few weeks were phenomenally strong. At first glance
I wondered if it was just setting up for a big downside correction. Then,
I took at a weekly chart, and recognized how FDP might actually be starting
a recovery effort after getting cut in half in 2005 and 2006.
Software
- Don't be fooled....we'd say the software stocks were in big trouble well
before the market turned sour, and based on the sustained selling here
last week, we'd guess these names are still in no better position to stage
a recovery. And, despite the launch of Windows Vista leaving computer owners
longing for the days of DOS (10 points awarded for anybody who understands
what that means), we can't blame Microsoft (NASDAQ:
MSFT) alone for the struggle.
Lumber
-
Until last week, these stocks pretty much reflected the market's movement....rising
through late February, then moving down two weeks ago. Then last week,
we saw a divergence - these names just kept on falling even though the
market inched higher. I think the key factor in their continued demise
is just how they were so overbought. They had easily outpaced the S&P
500's 18% gain between mid-July and Late February by putting up a 35%
gain of their own during that time. But, the higher ya' fly, the
harder ya' fall....at least it seems to me so far. Now that the damage
has been done, I have to think the hefty profits are going to be locked
in, which may well drive these stocks even lower. Weyerhaeuser (NYSE:
WY), Plum Creek (NYSE: PCL),
Louisiana-Pacific (NYSE: LPX)....take
your pick - they all look pretty troubled to me.
Computer
Storage - These names mirrored the market before February 27th, but
kept sinking despite last week's slight rebound. We considered chalking
it up to just the bad luck of being in the wrong sector, but technology,
and specifically hardware, did indeed manage to move upward last week.
All the big company's stocks look as if they're struggling to us, like
EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC), Western
Digital (NYSE: WDC) and
Seagate (NYSE: STX). Though
SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK)
looks like it could be an interesting rebound play, the group as a whole
seems to be in dire straits.
Furniture
- There's actually a category for these stocks? Wow. On the other
hand, maybe it's a good thing there is. Like most stocks, they got whacked
a couple of Tuesday's ago. But, they were already in trouble before that,
and they didn't participate in last week's rally. They actually peaked
on February 2nd, and started to fall back well before the market did in
late February. They closed in the red last week too. A look at the Masco
Corp. (NYSE: MAS) chart
will probably tell you everything you need to know, though Hon Indus. (NYSE:
HON) doesn't necessarily inspire us either.
Tires
- Perhaps even more obscure than furniture, we have to confess we're highly
impressed by this groups' strength. They took a hit like everything else
two Tuesday's ago, but started to recover the very next day....and are
still on the rise in our view. The reason is a complicated one, but in
essence, the pricing dynamic here is a combination of basic materials prices,
and industrial demand for tires (large truck tires in particular). Apparently
the status quo is an advantageous one for the tire makers. Think Goodyear
(NYSE: GT) or Cooper (NYSE:
CTB).
In
any case, those are just a handful of our observations - take 'em for
what they're worth.
Though
the market's picture may be a little fuzzy right now, we think these pockets
of consistent strength or weakness may have opened up a few opportunities
to capitalize upon while we're waiting for the overall market to pick a
trend and stick with it. Though stocks, sectors, and even the market can
(and have) turned on a dime, a trend is still your friend until proven
otherwise, as far as we're concerned.
What
do you think? Agree or disagree with any of these sector and industry ideas?
Or, maybe you have some observations of your own. We'd love to hear them.
Feel free to write in,
or post a comment in the blog.
We
Value Your Feedback
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the Editor
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or inquiry, please send it to our physical address:
TGR Group, LLC
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Stockgroup
Stages Breakout
If
Stockgroup Information Systems (OTCBB:
SWEB) isn't on your radar right now, maybe you should put it there....we
think we may be seeing a breakout effort. And, considering the last one
carried the stock from 43 cents to 74 cents just two days later - a mere
72% surge - we'd say the reason we're intrigued is obvious.
Since
the initial run-up in January, shares have been range-bound between 64
cents and 75 cents. Friday's high of 81 cents was a new year high. Could
this be the second stage of a long-term uptrend? Maybe. So if you're interested,
we'd suggest not hesitating - in case this thins is growing legs and getting
ready to run.
Our
longer-term target is still $1.51, which suddenly seems even more plausible
after seeing Thursday's and Friday's big volume gain.
Titan
Toys With a Breakout Too
Well,
we mentioned several times we expected it, but now we've actually seen
it happen. Shares of Titan Global (OTCBB:
TTGL) broke past resistance at $1.40, reaching $1.49 on Thursday. Though
it didn't stay there on Friday, we think it still suggests traders are
thinking aggressively here. A study of this chart's history reveals this
stop-and-go type of pattern, where it trades flat for a few weeks, then
surges without warning.
The
last few pops like this were good for about 20 cents each, so we may see
a little more upside in the short run - perhaps as high as $1.60. As long
as it continues to make short-term steps towards my long-term target of
$3.00, it can do a two-step tango for all I care. The nice part about those
flat periods is just how it allows others an opportunity to get in if they're
not really fans of jumping into a sharp rally in mid-stream.
Challenger
Featured In Business Publication
Every
bit of publicity helps, right? Well, Challenger Powerboats (OTCBB:
CPWB) got a little help recently by being featured in a St. Louis (MO)
area business publication. The St. Louis Business Journal took a nice,
focused look at Challenger - based near St. Louis - in the March 2nd edition.
It's
a little bit of a different venue than Hotboat Magazine, Powerboat Magazine,
or the boat shows the company hast started to attend, but hey, getting
the name out there for free doesn't cost a penny, and you never know who
may be reading.
You
can get a portion of the article by clicking
here.
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