Dow Jones 12382.15 -98.54 11:29 am PST, January 5, 2007 NASDAQ 2430.84 -22.59 For info, visit access.smallcapnetwork.com S & P 500 1408.81 -9.53 Change your subscription status here Russell 2000 776.83 -13.12 VOLUME 07: ISSUE 2 Can Lightning Strike Twice ?  Remember the cliché 'Expect it when you least expect it'? Technically it's impossible to do, yet it's still valuable advice even within the investing world. We think we're seeing this kind of scenario develop with shares of CEL-SCI Corporation (AMEX: CVM). Except for December's eye-popping news about a patent approval for an immune-based disease treatment, the company has been relatively quiet lately - too quiet....you know, the deafening kind of silence. It's quiet times like these that can potentially reward forward-thinking, patient traders.  If it were another company, we might not even notice. However, over the last four years we've come to this opinion about CEL-SCI and their shares - both can take you by surprise in a good way. So, when we see CEL-SCI's chart looking like it's found a trading level at which a rebound might be staged, we feel it may be the calm before the storm. No, we have no evidence or any particular reason to expect anything big in the way of news to act as a catalyst. It's just a hunch based on our experience. What we do have, though, is a technical interpretation of the chart that's just favorable enough to get us interested again.    Reading the Chart (or, A Short-Term Look)  Journalistic theory says begin with the most important ideas first, which we did - we wanted to convey our opinion about CVM shares being worth a look. Our second-most important idea (and it was a close second) was the reason we even bring it up today.....the potential bounce we think we see on the chart.  In a nutshell, CEL-SCI shares are right around a significant support area. On three separate occasions in the last six months we've seen CVM rebound once lows around 55 cents were touched, with the December 29th low of 55 cents perhaps being the fourth instance of a bounce off of that support area - it's still a little too soon to say for sure. Granted, the first of those three occurrences actually began when the stock tagged 53 cents on August 15th. However, the close that day was 58 cents, and shares went as high as 68 cents by the end of the month. The point is, we're seeing downtrends stop and make reversal attempts around 55 cents.....a little too often to just chalk up to coincidence anyway.  Now, for the total speculator who can balance the potential bounce with a protective stop to defend against any potential pullback, the last few months alone may be enough for you to pull the trigger. However, for anyone who may need more reasoning behind our point of view, the weekly chart (which we'll look at next) may do a better job of explaining our rationale.    We've Seen It Before (or, A Long-Term Look)  If you want proof that CVM shares are at least capable of making an upside explosion, you don't have to look back any further than April of last year. On March 31st, CEL-SCI closed at 73 cents. One week later, the stock closed at $1.49, and had been as high as $1.78. Folks, that's a weekly gain of 104%, and if you got out at the high, it may have meant a one week gain of 143%. And let's not even talk about how CVM closed out 2005 at 49 cents, since the 200% (or more) gain within the first four months of 2006 might leave too many of us with the "Boy, I should have..." syndrome. You can't go back and do things over.  You can, however, look back, learn, and then look ahead.  Are we saying we're certain CVM is going to repeat April of 2006? Absolutely not. Are we saying it's a possibility worth thinking about? Sure, as long as you equally understand that neither we nor the chart are infallible. In fact, we've seen some significant resistance at the 20 day moving average line over the last few days. Getting past that hurdle will obviously be essential if we're to expect the stock to actually go any higher, but, every major move starts as a minor one (and it's a step that may have been taken with today's gain so far). Besides, we don't think the key to this stock's bounce is based on proven momentum. Rather, our premise is one of an upside reversal being made at what may be a short-term bottom.  As we already wrote, the possibility is more of a hunch than anything else. We're not adding the idea as an official trade alert, if that tells you anything, although we may decide to later. Our only goal today is to offer up a point of view you may not have realized in the absence of any major news announcement. It's a speculative concept - one that we'd say almost requires a protective stop. However, the potential reward seems attractive relative to the risk we see, even if the stock only does a fraction of what it did in April.    The Potential Catalyst  OK, the next likely question is, what potential catalyst could really get the stock moving? Well, we don't think there absolutely has to be one for a stock to jump - we've seen stranger things happen. However, if we do get some supportive news, then so much the better. But first.....  The giant gains from last April? They were ultimately driven by news. At the time (on February 28th, 2006 to be exact) we were just learning about a patent approval for CEL-SCI's L.E.A.P.S(TM) technology. In layman's terms, this technology is a method for treating autoimmune conditions and allergies using CEL-SCI's T-cell modulation platform. The patented technology could potentially treat common autoimmune diseases like insulin dependent diabetes mellitus, lupus, multiple sclerosis, inflammatory bowel and Graves Disease. See, all those conditions have a common thread - a person's own immune systems 'attacks' cells and organs as if they were diseases. Needless to say, the impact of the technology could be huge as well as potentially profitable. And clearly, the market loved it.  Fast forward to a couple of weeks ago. On December 20th, 2006, CEL-SCI announced another patent had been approved - this one being an apparent improvement on the afore-mentioned T-cell modulation idea. This time around, the T-cell modulation platform technology is called "AdapT." AdapT technology uses proprietary molecular constructs to selectively cause the death of only those T-cells that can cause or allow autoimmune conditions like asthma, allergy, and transplant rejection. The newly-patented technology would cause the problematic T-cells to undergo apoptosis (programmed cell death). While we think the February news was big, we feel the December news was even bigger.  Although the news itself was impressive, that's not what we think is the curious part. What we find interesting is the teaser-like effect it had. See, this was the first we'd heard from CEL-SCI in a long time about T-cell modulation, and we haven't heard a peep about it since then. In our opinion, that's unlike the company, or unlike most companies for that matter. The news was incredible, and we feel there has to be more to the story than just the little snippet we got. Yeah, we know there's still probably years of R&D to be done before the patented technology is even turned into a marketable product. But still.....  We suspect - and this is strictly a guess - that there's something significant to CEL-SCI's autoimmune disease research....perhaps a lot more than we realize right now. Maybe we'll learn more about it within a few weeks, or maybe it will be months, or even years. We just don't know. However, we've seen lightning strike out of the blue in the past, and CVM owners have sometimes benefited greatly when it did. If any future news is good and it gets as much traction as April's news, maybe lighting can strike again.  Just something to think about over the weekend.      We Value Your Feedback   Got comments, questions or suggestions? Send 'em on over: Editor@smallcapnetwork.com If you wish to send a written request or inquiry, please send it to our physical address: TGR Group, LLC 4653 Carmel Mtn Rd Suite 308 #402 San Diego, CA 92130 Commerce Planet Still on a Roll The Commerce Planet (OTCBB: CPNE) juggernaut is still on a roll, with the latest installment of good news compliments of their Consumer Loyalty Group - one of the company's biggest subsidiaries.  And what's the latest? Just a record enrollment month. The Consumer Loyalty Group processed 71,971 paid memberships in December....and it was a 50% increase over November's total. In a word, wow! While that sort of improvement would be huge for most other companies, it's - to a certain degree - the kind of over-delivery we've come to expect from Commerce Planet. Kudos to the company for raising their own bar.  Just an FYI, mark the entire latter half of February as the time frame during which we expect Commerce Planet to announce quarterly as well as annual earnings. And as a reminder, the last few quarters have just been fantastic; we expect no less this time around.  As for shares, current owners are being rewarded for the good news....the stock is up about 17% since the news was released. The rebound more than offsets a couple of weeks worth of weakness, and puts the chart back above some key technical support levels.  For more details, click here.    The January Non-Indicator? If you're not visiting our home page, you're missing some of our best stuff!  Be sure to check out the most recent Heating Up column as our editor explores the realities - and the myths - of using January's results to make a full-year forecast. This fresh look at an old idea is exclusively found on the SmallCap Digest home page. 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Unsubscribe Here D I S C L A I M E R: The Small Cap Digest, the Small Cap Network, its website and email newsletter (hereafter, cumulatively referred to as "SCD") , is an independent electronic publication committed to providing its readers with factual information on select publicly traded companies. SCD is owned and operated by TGR Group, LLC ("TGR"). TGR is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer. All companies are chosen on the basis of certain financial analysis and other pertinent criteria with a view toward maximizing the upside potential for investors while minimizing the downside risk, whenever possible.  Moreover, as detailed below, TGR accepts compensation from third party consultants and/or companies, which it features in the publication and circulation of SCD. To the degrees enumerated herein, SCD should not be regarded as an independent publication.  Click Here or go to http://access.smallcapnetwork.com/compensation_disclosure.html to view our compensation on every company we have ever covered, or visit the following web address: http://www.smallnetwork.net/profile_disclosure.html for our full profiles and http://access.smallcapnetwork.com/short_term_alerts.html for Trading Alerts.  TGR Group LLC has been paid a fee of $60,000 by Commerce Planet for coverage of the company. In addition, one of the principles of TGR Group LLC is also a principle of MarketByte LLC. In a separate contractual relationship in 2004, MarketByte LLC was paid a fee of $25,000 in cash and 750,000 newly issued, restricted shares by Commerce Planet for coverage of the company. The aforementioned shares are all currently eligible to be free trading. The term of MarketByte's obligation to Commerce Planet has expired. 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