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VOLUME
06: ISSUE 47
Timeless
Lessons
Lately
we've been focusing on our watchlist stocks with major news to discuss,
but with nothing hard-hitting to look at today, we'll devote some attention
to a couple of names we haven't looked at recently. This includes a detailed
look at charts. Along the way, we're going to use our real-life examples
to illustrate key lessons that investors should remember for any stock
trade. Plus, this look will get any new readers up to speed on at least
two of the companies we're covering.
Novelos
Therapeutics
Want
proof that lightning can strike anywhere, anytime? Novelos Therapeutics
(OTCBB: NVLT) had been
walking lower since March, but over the last three sessions, the stock
did an about-face. The close at $0.93 cents last week was just a fraction
above its low for the year (which by the way was $0.85, reached just last
Thursday). Yesterday, the stock closed at $1.11, or 19% better than last
week's close. A serious resistance line was broken in the process too,
so we at least have to acknowledge there's a potential breakout in the
works.
The
big gain, however, isn't even the exciting part. What we like even more
(and any shareholder should) is the major volume behind yesterday's $0.11
gain. It was the highest volume ever seen for this issue...and it was bullish.
It's still not clear whom it was buying all those shares. It could have
been an insider, or possibly a fund or pension. Either way, it's a professional
endorsement of the company. Those are leads usually worth following, especially
in the early stages of the breakout before the accumulation is complete.
For an example of how bullish volume can precede a nice upside move, just
look at a recent Commerce Planet (OTCBB:
CPNE) chart by clicking here.
The high volume surges got bigger and bigger, as the stock went higher
and higher. There's a good chance the same is happening with Novelos now.
So
what news prompted the recent move? Well, none. That's another bullish
point. If it was a news-driven rally, we might hesitate to even respond
to it, since those moves can be short-lived (as you'll see with Biocurex
below). In this case though, there is no news - at least none yet. This
stock is going higher on its own merit instead of on hype. Given the
choice, it's best if a company's stock can move higher without the help
of the media or public relations efforts. Generally, news doesn't keep
investors interested long enough to keep a stock pointed upward.
Biocurex
Biocurex
(BOCX.PK) hasn't had
any news in a long time. That may be the challenge for the stock. After
surging from a close of $0.81 on April 11th to the April 12th close of
$1.09, it looked like a paradigm shift for shareholders - multi-month highs
were hit, and the volume behind the move was huge. Since then, however,
the stock has eased back from the April 12th high of $1.34. Yesterday's
closing price was $0.79.That's not too easy to swallow as a shareholder,
but a little perspective may help.
Let's
be honest...the 34% gain on April 12th was nice, but maybe a little much.
The stock went from being stuck in a range to being launched like a rocket.
The news certainly merited interest in the company - Biocurex announced
success with a breast cancer detection test that day. On a personal level,
we're thrilled with progress in that important arena. And as investors,
we'd be crazy to ignore a company doing that kind of research with any
amount of success. But as traders, we have to recognize instances of when
the market over-reacted. April 12th may have been one of those times. In
a rush to 'get in now', investors didn't really have time to think it over,
or examine the details of the cancer detection test. Expectations of the
company were obviously high at the time, but the jump in the stock price
reflected more hope than any company could feasibly satisfy. When the dust
started to settle, the stock lost some luster. It happens.
Now,
we said all that, so we could day this...trading is one thing, and investing
is another. However, there's nothing wrong with being both. We are.
In fact, it can make sense to be both. Biocurex is an example of
that. The April 12th move made for a great trade. We expressed our interest
in Biocurex a few days before the big rally, not knowing what was about
to happen. Our interest at the time was in the investment opportunity.
But after April 12th, we couldn't blame anyone for becoming a trader, and
locking in some profits. In fact, it looks like most people did. Thus,
the stock slipped back to the same levels we saw before the surge. Quite
frankly, we're not surprised. Between the big bullish gap (which the market
hates), and the big one-day gain staring shareholders in the face, it was
going to be tough for the stock to follow through to the upside. It's probably
not exactly what the company wanted, but it's just one of the distinct
realities for pink sheet stocks.
Well,
as of Tuesday, the trading mode has come to an end. The recent lows of
$0.79 have fully closed the bullish gap from April, and we're back to the
trading range we were in for the latter part of last year. So, without
the worry of what the stock might or might not do next, we can now re-focus
on Biocurex as in investment.
So
what is the investment potential here? The fact of the matter is Biocurex
is still an amazing company doing some amazing research. The breast cancer
test obviously has promise, yet it's only a part of what the company is
doing with cancer detection.
Of
course as stock investors, you only make money if shares go higher. Can
BOCX do that? You bet. But as we mentioned early on, there's been a lack
of news for Biocurex, so there's been no renewed interest in the stock.
That's ok though, as that can change without warning. It may be tomorrow,
or it may be two months from now. Being patient is just one of the keys
with speculative investments. Perhaps the next bit of news will be like
the last bit, and create a big surge that ends up putting BOCX shares into
a trading mode, which traders love. Maybe it will start a slow and well-paced
bullish move, which investors love, since they're easier to sustain. As
of right now, it's still on our coverage list, so we obviously think it
has potential. But as far as what kind of potential is yet to be determined.
The
point is this...small cap investing is an art, and a science.
The charts don't always work how we'd like them to, but that's entirely
out of your control. What is in your control is what you do
under a certain set of circumstances. Sometimes the wise choice is to be
a scientist, and sometime the wise choice is to be an artist. We applaud
investors and traders who can stick to their chosen methodology. However,
the most successful (i.e. profitable) market participants are the ones
who can successfully implement the best parts of both methodologies,
when the time is right.
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Feedback
Got comments, questions or suggestions?
Send 'em on over: Editor@smallcapnetwork.com
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or inquiry, please send it to our physical address:
TGR Group, LLC
4653 Carmel Mtn Rd Suite 308 #402
San Diego, CA 92130
New
Name For NeWave
The
name change for NeWave is now complete. As of today, the company will be
called 'Commerce Planet', with a new stock ticker symbol 'CPNE'. The updated
stock ticker is already trading over-the-counter as a bulletin board stock
should, but don't be surprised to see a transitional period for some data
providers. For instance, Yahoo is listing the correct symbol, but the wrong
company name. Some stock quote providers are still listing Capital One
Inc. as the company name for 'CPNE'. All of those errors will be corrected
soon; we just wanted you to know in case you saw something unusual in the
meantime (or couldn't get a quote) for the company formerly known as NeWave.
CEO
Michael Hill commented the new name 'Commerce Planet' (OTCBB:CPNE)
is more descriptive of what the company does. He also added (and this is
the exciting part for us) the revised moniker will be better suited for
the new growth initiatives to be added in the latter half of this year.
Based on his track record so far, we think it's going to be something really
exciting.
As
for the shares, it's business as usual. Each wave of selling is quickly
met with an even stronger wave of buying, pushing the stock to new highs.
So, not only has the ebb and flow become predictable, it's also made for
a pretty nice uptrend since mid-March when we first started covering the
company. At the time, shares were priced at $0.19. The current reading
of $0.52 translates into a 173% gain, with more likely on the way (see
chart here).
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TGR is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer. All companies
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TGR Group LLC has been paid a fee
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