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VOLUME
03: ISSUE 20
The
Internet is dead. Long live the Internet.
The
second incarnation of the Internet-of which we are in the formative stages
now-will be a lot easier to understand both for users and investors. The
flotsam and jetsam has been jettisoned and we are left with great companies
such as eBay, Amazon and the burgeoning content (music, news, video et
al) delivery sector. Who would have thought that in a scant few years,
there would be new companies that are already defining the standards for
future success?
The acid test is that if the Internet
was, or is, a flash in the server, how come email marketing is still the
fastest growing business?
While there's still lots of innovation
out there, the next evolutionary shift in the Internet infrastructure will
steal from the successes of online veterans-something we didn't have even
three years ago. The current beachhead being established is the delivery
of content such as music and video. The process has been developed against
a grinding, litigious landscape where the participants were characterized
more by missteps than business acumen.
Still
on the Internet Island
One such survivor doing it right
is RealNetworks (RNWK: NASDAQ). While the appetite for war news was a boon
for Real, the true measure of the company's mettle was that it delivered
massive amounts of content that customers required of it, virtually seamlessly.
With a mix of free and paid content, Real instantly stepped up to deliver
a five-fold increase in coverage during the Iraq conflict. As well, the
company continued to establish new content, partnerships and technology
that have driven it to the point it can boast more than a million subscribers.
While earnings and revenue remain static, there is little doubt that the
Seattle-based company is well on its way to becoming a serious and profitable
player of the future Internet.
The company is still losing a bit
of money-2 cents per share for the first quarter of 2003-and expects lose
a like amount for the next. Consensus earnings projections have the company
posting 4-6 cents for fiscal 2004.
Take
that, Miss Ciccone
If RNWK's acquisition of Listen.com
closes in the second quarter of 2003, bringing Listen's Rhapsody music
service into the fold, Real will have cemented its foothold in the sector.
Coupled with Real's SuperPass, the combination of content delivery vehicles
would be potent indeed. There is little doubt that subscription based music
will be a hot commodity on the Internet. With Apple (NASDAQ:
AAPL) joining the fray last week, the die is certainly cast. As
the RNWK/Listen service will be cheaper than Apple's, look for a good,
old-fashioned slugfest for market share-always beneficial for consumers.
That said, the market for music is huge.
RNWK shares have risen about 20 percent
to north of $5 a share since we first mentioned them a couple of months
ago. Technically, the chart pattern shows a potential run to $6 before
resistance is tested.
Cel-Sci talks about SARS
Speaking
of moving up, another micro-cap seen here frequently is DC-based Cel-Sci
(AMEX: CVM).
In a letter to shareholders earlier this week, CEO Geert Kertsen responded
to questions from shareholders and interested others about therapies for
SARS and the company's plans in that regard with its immune modulating
peptide Cel-1000.
Kersten states: " The ability
of CEL- 1000 to enhance the innate immunity to viral infections should
put it among the candidates for investigation for the treatment and prevention
of SARS". He goes on, "Based on CEL-1000's activation of the innate and
cellular immune responses and the wide scope of protection already seen
with CEL-1000 in different diseases, we believe it to be important that
CEL-1000 be tested for potential utility against the SARS virus. We are
therefore evaluating the availability of public funds and/or other sources
to pursue the testing of CEL-1000 in SARS".
The shares popped up briefly to 30
cents and have since settled back to 25 cents. The letter was written in
response to a number of SARS-related questions that the company had received
The myriad potential applications for Cel-Sci's initiatives mount. We will
continue to monitor the bio-tech's progress for our readers.
We are gratified by the number and
quality of the emails we receive. Most are constructive, some controversial,
but all welcome. Let us know your thoughts here: editor@smallcapnetwork.com
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