Market
& Trade Updates: Take Profits, Prep for Pullback
Normally
I'd wait until after the close of the market today to send out the newsletter,
but if I did so today, the potential gains I'd like to see locked
down may be wiped away by the time you got a chance to act. So, we're publishing
pre-close
today.
The
full details of the call are immediately below. However, we've got some
other business to take care of afterwards. Be sure to keep reading, as
I'm
also suggesting exits on a handful of our recent penny stock picks
(for those who traded them).
Oh,
and there's also a brief announcement for you Twitter folks.
Lock
'Em In
In
a nutshell, I love today's big move higher, but I just don't see it lasting.
The market barely staved off closing in the red Friday with a last-minute
shove that ended up being (almost) the difference between the gain
or a loss for the week. Today we're seeing another great move, but we're
missing something very important ...volume.
In
short, I suggest locking in gains on any short-term bullish positions and
just sitting out the next couple of days.
At
the same time, I am NOT suggesting taking on any bearish trades just
yet; the pullback may be only a minor one, and not even big enough
to fool with trading. That's a different stance than the one I had a little
more than a week ago, but the market has managed to build a stronger floor
since then.
And
where is that floor now? Previously it was at 797 for the S&P 500,
where we found a key Fibonacci retracement line. Since that line moved
with today's new multi-week high, a few more possibilities have opened
up.
For
the S&P 500, my short-term pullback target now lies at 855. You'll
find the 20 day moving average line there, which played a big role in keeping
the uptrend alive two weeks ago. You'll also find the 7x5 displaced moving
average at that level. If the bulls start to get interested again there,
or if the bears give up once that line is tested, I'll plow back in.
If
instead 855 breaks down as support, the next checkpoint is the new retracement
line at 810; the 50 day moving average line will be there by the time it
could be retested (if it happens) too.
My
only caveat is simply to not be completely shocked - or lulled in -
if the S&P 500 manages to reach as high as 909 before the headwind
is hit. That's where you'll find the very upper edge of the recent bullish
'zone' we've been bouncing around in; we may have to get all the way there
to fully induce a wave of profit-taking. Today's high so far has been 901,
for perspective.
I'm
not going to try and scalp those eight points on the way up, though
I might consider trying to jump in at that point for a short-term downside
trade....if the opportunity presents itself.
If
you're truly in the market for the long haul, none of this may really matter
to you. I know a lot of our folks are traders and timers though. So, maybe
my thoughts will be of some help. Anyway...
Penny
Stock Picks - Time to Exit
It
seems like we've reviewed a couple dozen penny stock trading ideas over
the last week or so. While I don't have time to revisit all of them, there
are a handful I think need to be exited while the getting's good.
Boyd
Gaming Corp. (BYD)
We
picked this one back on April
27th when shares were trading at $7.99. The current price of $9.79
translates into a gain of 22.5%. Not bad for a week and a half.
Though
my intended time frame for Boyd was a little longer, I think the chart's
made a little too much progress in too short a period of time. Volume is
fading pretty quickly too, which means the bullish engine is running on
fumes. Let's take what we've got off the table; if you still like it (as
I do), you can re-buy it later.
GlobalScape
Inc. (GSB)
Like
Boyd, GlobalScape may have just run a little too fast for its own good.
It gapped open firmly today as well, and has spent the entire session back-pedaling.
Don't
hear us wrong - we've got no complaints about it. We picked GSB
on April
29th for the 30th, when it opened at 95 cents. The current price of
$1.14 still represents a 20% gain, and perhaps more if you got out earlier
today.
Either
way, we just don't like the way the chart's behaved since then, and we'd
rather cash in the bird we have in the hand rather than gamble on the two
waiting in the bush.
As
for all the other trades we looked at recently, they're either still making
good progress, or the risk/reward ratio is still very favorable. We'll
try and follow up on as many of those as we can, though we're still mostly
focusing
on finding new ideas to take on.
Tweat
Tweat
If
you're a person who Twitters, you're officially invited to follow us
and our thoughts via Twitter. Just go to http://twitter.com/smallcapnetwork
and choose 'follow'.
Obviously
we can't dive into a lot of detail with our Twitter posts, but what the
service lacks in detail it more than makes up for in speed. We're
excited about adding this upgrade to your Small Cap Network experience.