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Market & Trade Updates: Take Profits, Prep for Pullback
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Market & Trade Updates: Take Profits, Prep for Pullback Normally I'd wait until after the close of the market today to send out the newsletter, but if I did so today, the potential gains I'd like to see locked down may be wiped away by the time you got a chance to act. So, we're publishing pre-close today.  The full details of the call are immediately below. However, we've got some other business to take care of afterwards. Be sure to keep reading, as I'm also suggesting exits on a handful of our recent penny stock picks (for those who traded them).  Oh, and there's also a brief announcement for you Twitter folks.    Lock 'Em In In a nutshell, I love today's big move higher, but I just don't see it lasting. The market barely staved off closing in the red Friday with a last-minute shove that ended up being (almost) the difference between the gain or a loss for the week. Today we're seeing another great move, but we're missing something very important ...volume. In short, I suggest locking in gains on any short-term bullish positions and just sitting out the next couple of days. At the same time, I am NOT suggesting taking on any bearish trades just yet; the pullback may be only a minor one, and not even big enough to fool with trading. That's a different stance than the one I had a little more than a week ago, but the market has managed to build a stronger floor since then.  And where is that floor now? Previously it was at 797 for the S&P 500, where we found a key Fibonacci retracement line. Since that line moved with today's new multi-week high, a few more possibilities have opened up. For the S&P 500, my short-term pullback target now lies at 855. You'll find the 20 day moving average line there, which played a big role in keeping the uptrend alive two weeks ago. You'll also find the 7x5 displaced moving average at that level. If the bulls start to get interested again there, or if the bears give up once that line is tested, I'll plow back in. If instead 855 breaks down as support, the next checkpoint is the new retracement line at 810; the 50 day moving average line will be there by the time it could be retested (if it happens) too. My only caveat is simply to not be completely shocked - or lulled in - if the S&P 500 manages to reach as high as 909 before the headwind is hit. That's where you'll find the very upper edge of the recent bullish 'zone' we've been bouncing around in; we may have to get all the way there to fully induce a wave of profit-taking. Today's high so far has been 901, for perspective.  I'm not going to try and scalp those eight points on the way up, though I might consider trying to jump in at that point for a short-term downside trade....if the opportunity presents itself. If you're truly in the market for the long haul, none of this may really matter to you. I know a lot of our folks are traders and timers though. So, maybe my thoughts will be of some help. Anyway...    Penny Stock Picks - Time to Exit It seems like we've reviewed a couple dozen penny stock trading ideas over the last week or so. While I don't have time to revisit all of them, there are a handful I think need to be exited while the getting's good. Boyd Gaming Corp. (BYD) We picked this one back on April 27th when shares were trading at $7.99. The current price of $9.79 translates into a gain of 22.5%. Not bad for a week and a half.  Though my intended time frame for Boyd was a little longer, I think the chart's made a little too much progress in too short a period of time. Volume is fading pretty quickly too, which means the bullish engine is running on fumes. Let's take what we've got off the table; if you still like it (as I do), you can re-buy it later. GlobalScape Inc. (GSB) Like Boyd, GlobalScape may have just run a little too fast for its own good. It gapped open firmly today as well, and has spent the entire session back-pedaling. Don't hear us wrong - we've got no complaints about it. We picked GSB on April 29th for the 30th, when it opened at 95 cents. The current price of $1.14 still represents a 20% gain, and perhaps more if you got out earlier today.  Either way, we just don't like the way the chart's behaved since then, and we'd rather cash in the bird we have in the hand rather than gamble on the two waiting in the bush. As for all the other trades we looked at recently, they're either still making good progress, or the risk/reward ratio is still very favorable. We'll try and follow up on as many of those as we can, though we're still mostly focusing on finding new ideas to take on.   Tweat Tweat If you're a person who Twitters, you're officially invited to follow us and our thoughts via Twitter. Just go to http://twitter.com/smallcapnetwork and choose 'follow'.  Obviously we can't dive into a lot of detail with our Twitter posts, but what the service lacks in detail it more than makes up for in speed. We're excited about adding this upgrade to your Small Cap Network experience.