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Five Mega-Trend Investment Themes
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February 2, 2024

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Dow Jones 13239.54 -31.14 4:47 am PDT, August 13, 2007 NASDAQ 2544.89 +0.00 For info, visit access.smallcapnetwork.com S & P 500 1453.64 +0.00 Change your subscription status here Russell 2000 788.78 +0.00 VOLUME 07 : ISSUE 78 Five Mega-Trend Investment Themes This is an edition I've been meaning to do for a while, but just haven't had the opportunity...until now. It's a good one though - one I think could make you a bundle of money if you understand 'conceptual' investing.  I'm not claiming to be another John Naisbitt, author of 1982's best-selling book 'Megatrends'. In it, Naisbitt lays out some of the global paradigm shifts almost too big for anyone to really see. All I'm sharing today are five of the key trends I (and some others) expect to make for great investment themes over the next couple of decades - a timeframe bigger than most technical or fundamental analysis techniques actually help with. No fanfare needed; let's just jump in.    #1: Materials Theoretically you could lump oil and natural resources into this trend, but I'm specifically referring to the massive growth on demand for metals. And I'm not talking about a certain point in a cyclical bull market - I'm talking about a dynamic that may never really go away. The inflation-adjusted prices of commodities are still below where they were three decades ago. As if that weren't enough, inventories of the four base metals are falling every year. Take copper for example. Within 10 years, less than half of the expected demand for copper will be able to be met by currently-operating mines. The basic same reality is true for all basic materials. Shrinking supply? Growing demand? You know that that means.  Though certainly not alone, China is at the heart of the demand. China uses 26% of its steel and aluminum, 33% of its iron, and 22% of its copper.....tops for each respective metal. However, global demand is up plenty as a whole. I just look for prices to keep on rising as the world's accessible resources become more depleted.  The big victors in this race will be the miners finding new supplies of metal....which is statistically unlikely, but a lottery ticket if they find one . However, even the companies with proven mines should do well, the way I see it.    #2: India Surely by now you've heard how India's recent desire to become an integral part of the global society has also opened the doors for unprecedented growth. The thing is, this isn't just some hypothetical wish....the economy there is indeed growing like wildfire. How do I know? Inflation is rampant there. The economy could grow at a double-digit pace this year. Their central bank has been forced to repeatedly raise interested rates. Yet, it still hasn't been enough to cool things down.  So how do you capitalize on the explosive growth in India? I think infrastructure is the obvious first way...buildings, roads, communication technology, and utilities.  There's a more obscure trend I see brewing for India though - financial services. Incomes are going up like crazy, reflective of the economic growth. More and more Indians are also accessing the Internet. As disposable/investable income improves along with the information about investment opportunities via the web, I have to think at least some of that cash will find its way into the hands of local financial professionals.  The ideal way to take advantages of the trend is to own the appropriate Indian stocks. However, for the 99% of North American investors without international accounts, there are still some ways to take advantage of that overseas growth.    #3: Food I know some of you were tempted to just skip this section. I mean, what could be more boring than investing in an industry that's not changed since....well, ever. Just hear me out.  There are over six billion people on the planet right now, and we know that number is on pace to be eight billion by the year 2025. Since every single one of them will need to eat, we'll need to produce about 33% more food then than we do now. That's not going to be a small feat  The problem is (like metals), we're eating food faster than we're making it. Five of the last six years, the human race collectively consumed more grains than farmers produced. The result? Global grain stocks are at the lowest levels we've seen in three decades. And it's not just grains. Produce, meats, dairy - even with inorganic (steroid) 'help' - are getting harder and harder to supply relative to the demands of a growing population, safer standards, and a new clamoring for pure, organic foods. As far as how to play this idea, I don't see any mystery. The industry names have been whittled down to a few major suppliers, though they may or may not be based in the United States. And it's not just crops and cattle companies...any company that can make it easier to supply or deliver food may also do well.    #4: Aging Population I almost didn't include this one, uncertain of how it would come across. Then I figured what the heck - our reader base understands our goal is simply to identify real opportunities. The theme itself is actually self-explanatory...people are living longer (and I for one am grateful). However, longevity also expands the need for medical care...pharmaceuticals, long term care, retirement centers, primary healthcare facilities (hospitals) - you name it. But it's not all gloom and doom here - these folks often have truckloads of disposable income and/or lots of retirement savings they want to burn off. That means opportunities in tourism, financial services, and all kinds of other things.  (I know the growing number of retirees and elderly isn't anything new at this point, but in my opinion, the idea too easily falls off of investor radars. Why? It doesn't produce immediate returns. However, I feel the right ones could, given enough time.)    #5: Me, Me, Me I'm not exactly a fan of M-TV anymore. However, I can't resist a good train wreck every now and then. Their show 'My Super Sweet Sixteen" is basically a documentary of the over-the-top planning for some over-indulged daughters' sixteenth birthday party. We're talking party price tags of six figures, and sometimes close to seven figures. Frequently the party ends with the parents turning over the keys to a car that can sometimes cost more than a small house.  When I first saw the show, I finally became convinced Madonna's theory was right - we are living in a material world. Today's twenty-somethings are collectively on track to be the first generation to perpetually remain in debt, spending more than they save right out of the gate - right as they enter the work force. (Hopefully that description doesn't fit any of our readers.)  Fiscal irresponsibility aside, there is an opportunity behind the trend. Where? The companies indulging those material whims stand to make a tidy profit. I immediately thought of the fashion retailers. You know the ones - hip, trendy, and overpriced. The P/Es and ROEs for many of these companies may surprise you. But, with consumer spending trends being what they are, the most 'fashionable' of the names are probably going to be able to keep naming whatever prices they want.  At the same time - and as much as it worries me for their sake - credit card companies also love this demographic's debt habits. Late charges are at all-time highs for credit card bills, and making the minimum payment is the norm. That means finance charges....and a lot of them.  Just so you know, both the retailers and the credit services companies are real hit and miss in terms of stock performance as well as financial results. But, the ones that do well seem to do really well. So, if you're in agreement with the theme, just choose carefully.    Runners-up & Final Thoughts I actually had a few more ideas that didn't make my top five, but are still worth mentioning. They are (in no particular order) Russia, (potable) water, Africa, and healthy eating (including weight loss and dietary supplements). Maybe I'll look at those in more depth later, or maybe not. Either way, they may be worth a little due diligence on your end.  As for the five I detailed above, insert all the proper disclaimers here - no guarantees, only my opinion, blah blah blah.  Also keep in mind these are looooong-term ideas, and probably not something you could expect to produce results in only a few months. The key message I was trying to get across was the mega-trend I see taking shape. Hopefully I'm right on target and we can all make some nice macro-view money.  I plan on following this edition with a blog entry later this week, citing a handful of specific, quality company names that look like they fit into this mega-trend outlook. Be sure to keep an eye out for it. In the meantime, we've got some major small cap news to cover in the middle of this week. And of course, I'll post some observations on this indecisive market.      We Value Your Feedback   Got comments, questions or suggestions? Send 'em on over: Email the Editor If you wish to send a written request or inquiry, please send it to our physical address: TGR Group, LLC 4653 Carmel Mtn Rd Suite 308 #402 San Diego, CA 92130 Titan Global's Cleaning Up.... ....in more ways than one. We've been watching (ok, staring at) Titan Global's (OTCBB: TTGL) chart for several days now, amazed by just how well it's been moving now that it's in break-out mode. As of last week, my imposed resistance line at $1.40 was breached; TTGL closed at $1.50 on Friday. Moreover, I believe there's still plenty of juice left.  What inspired this round of interest? Another acquisition. Titan is buying USA Detergents Inc. As the name implies, they manufacture cleaning well-known household products like Brillo pads, Oxymax, Touch of Glass, and Arm & Hammer branded lines. They've also got some food lines, like Betty Crocker and Snapple.  Titan's attraction to this particular company was the common distribution channels shared with USA Detergents - many of Titan's telecom products (pre-paid phone cards) are already in the same retail/grocery stores as USA Detergents' lines are.  If you're looking for a diverse holding company on a growth path, Titan sure seems to be it. I like the addition of a complementary business, as it should provide stability to their total revenue base. 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