Well, after four consecutive daily losses (a total pullback of 2.8%), I can't tell you I'm surprised the market's luck changed today. I can tell you, however, I'm still not impressed, and I'm certainly not interested in a bullish stance. Tuesday's strength was mostly the market's natural ebb and flow nature doing its usual thing. We could even see a little more bullishness later this week and still not actually sidestep the ultimate fate we see on the horizon... a decent-sized correction.
We'll take a detailed look at that idea in a second. First I want to give a shout-out to a handful of folks who've continued to amaze us with the help they're giving other traders at the SmallCap Network site.
Best of the Best
It's not a name that's going to be new to anybody who's been reading the newsletter for at least a month, but DoMan has once again been lighting it up, working his way back onto the stock-picking leader-board. Now he's in the #2 spot, with a few new trades since the last time we looked at his portfolio. His Novavax (NVAX) trade is already up a whopping 32% in just a couple of weeks, and he's scored big with Cleantech Solutions (CLNT) and BlackBerry (BBRY) too. If you're not following DoMan, you might want to.
If you prefer to read and rationalize before you trade [which is totally fine, by the way], there are a couple of actionable commentaries penned by the site's regulars worth a look.
One of them is John Udovich's look at Infinity Pharmaceuticals (INFI). The stock was hammered earlier in the year, and though the bleeding has stopped in the meantime, it's not like INFI has dazzled investors with a brilliant rebound. It might be on the verge of doing so, however. John's headline asks if Infinity has hit bottom yet, and he goes on to answer the question.
Speaking of hitting bottom, James Brumley seems to think Elite Pharmaceuticals (ELTP) did so a few days ago, and after looking at the chart, we agree. Though ELTP hasn't bolted higher since his dissection of the chart yesterday, he's right about one thing - there's a lot of support working on catapulting Elite Pharmaceuticals in a bullish direction. This one could be a real mover very soon.
Finally, though it's purely a trade, Bryan Murphy makes a great point about the way the XOMA Corp. (XOMA) has been working of late. If you've been worrying about the fundamentals, don't, 'cause they don't even matter right now.
There are more traders and contributors worth telling you about, but we just don't have time right now. I hope you get a chance to check out the site every day though, or at least a couple of times a week. Better than that, I hope you're taking advantage of the trading and publishing tools available at the site.
For those of you who've been part of the SmallCap Network community for a while, you've seen some huge changes - for the better - with the site, most of them coming within the past few months. We firmly believe our stock picking and publishing features are second to none within the industry, and we're excited about how it could change the landscape of financial media and the stock-picking industry. You know what's missing though (proverbially speaking)? You.
We're 100% confident our reader base can share ideas, thoughts, and picks that are just as good as what you'll find at places like MarketWatch, Yahoo! Finance, and all the rest. And, it's our mission to put the SmallCap Network shoulder to shoulder with those big-name news sites so our contributors can be heard just as loudly and prominently as anyone else. Who knows what that could lead to? It may even mean a paycheck. We just know it's something to get excited about.
Oh, we won't get there overnight, but we're moving in that direction. That's why we're encouraging anyone and everyone to go ahead and start penning stories, picking stocks, and developing a following of fans. The longer you wait and the bigger the community gets, the more difficult it's going to be to do that.
OK, off my high-horse. Let's look at this market.
Stocks Rally, But Even the Rally Is Waving Red Flags
I'm going to assume you realize the market closed in the black on Tuesday after four days of strong selling, so I'm not going to dwell on that point. I just want to point something out to you that would have been easy to miss if you didn't have a chance to dig deeper into today's action.
While the market closed up 0.38% for the day, it's worth noting - and worth worrying about - the market was actually up about 0.8% at one point on Tuesday. That's right - stocks gave up half the ground they worked so hard to reclaim today.
Even more alarming is where the rally effort stopped and where the pullback began. The rollover took shape right at the key 50-day moving average line (purple).
The 50-day average line has been a biggie recently, and between yesterday's high and today's high both testing it but failing to move above it, the bears have made a loud and clear statement about where they've drawn a line in the sand.
And yes, the VIX mirrored the market's move, spending a little time below its 50-day moving average line as well as below its upper Bollinger band. But, when push came to shove at the end of the session, traders were still mostly back-pedaling. It's a subtle clue of lingering fear and worry, not that we actually needed any clues to tell us traders are worried right now.
The bottom line is, I was entertaining the possibility of a short-term reprieve from the selling effort before we start to make lower lows again, but now it doesn't look like we'll get such a break. And, if we see the S&P 500 move under the recently-developed support line at 1645, that'll wipe away what little chance we had left for any upside movement. This makes whatever happens tomorrow enormously important.
Well, maybe not. Even if we did get a bounce we were still counting on a sizeable pullback. That doesn't mean we want to get to those lows as fast as we can though.
Let's just keep an eye on what happens at 1645, and what happens at the 50-day moving average line, currently at 1658.