Good afternoon, friends and fellow traders. How was your weekend? In light of what the market did today, I suppose we can all agree we'd wished the weekend would have lasted one more day. Then again, all the major indices are still holding above their most critical lines in the sand, so we still have just as much of a chance at coming out of the stall pointed in a bullish direction as we have at coming out of it in a bearish direction. We'll look at the whole shebang in a moment, along with a couple of other things, but there's something else worth a look first... something that'll get your blood boiling one way or another. Dear Apple, It's 2016 I've said this before but I'll say it again - if you're not checking out the SCN website every day, you're missing out on some great stuff. There are comments and posts put up at the site we just can't touch on or tout (for a lot of reasons) here in the newsletter. They're worth a look though, and one of them today just really got my attention. It concerned Apple (AAPL)... arguably the market's most watched, most owned, and most discussed name. It's got earnings due after the close on Tuesday, and I've got a feeling it could be a real make-or-break quarter for the company that's still doing well, but starting to hit a serious headwind. Case in point: Last quarter's revenue is expected to be the first year-over year quarterly drop in years. A lot of people will suggest consumers are just waiting for the iPhone 7 later in the year, and don't have any reason to upgrade now. That excuse doesn't quite hold water though, as we've seen consumers NOT hold back to this degree through the first six iPhones. Why would this cycle be any different? In any case, while I've been increasingly unimpressed by Apple of late, I could never put my finger on why. I think Bryan Murphy may have hit the nail on the head today with his post "Op-Ed: Where Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook Missed the Point." I'll warn you now if you're a rabid Apple fan or shareholder, you may not like it. I'll also let you know Apple is not at the extreme wrong end of the scale Murphy is describing. His point is well taken though... Apple may need to rethink how and why it markets its products. Feel free to agree or disagree at the bottom of Bryan's article. Other write-ups posted at the site today include Peter Graham's preview of quarterly results from Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). If there was ever a company that needed a break, it's Chipotle. I just don't know if this is the quarter it's going to get that break when it announces numbers after the close on Tuesday. Peter also took a look at Tuesday's earnings expectations for Ballard Power Systems (BLDP). Again, if you've got something to say about a stock, good or bad, if it's useful and cogent, post it at the website! You may even see your commentary featured here in the newsletter. A Reason to Worry? No, But... While we'd be terribly flattered if the SmallCap Network newsletter was the only piece of financial journalism you read, we're not that naive - we know you look at a lot of other stuff. That's ok. We do too. Along those lines, did everybody see the latest Barron's poll querying the nation's top money managers about what they think the future held? Long story made short, the pros are about as unenthusiastic about stocks as they've been at any point in the past 20 years. That data jibes with a similar Reuters poll I ran across this past weekend - the average recommended portfolio allocation is as anti-stock right now as it's been in more than a couple of years. I chewed on this for a while, not sure if I wanted to say anything, and not sure if I wanted to disagree with the stances or not. See, we're (usually) contrarians here at the SCN, meaning we're bullish when the crowd is exceedingly bearish, and we're bearish when the crowd is exceedingly bullish. Why do we take the opposing stance? Because, to put it bluntly, we do quite well - for ourselves and our readers - by betting against the crowd when the crowd becomes an angry mob. Not this time though. This time, we think the crowd is right, even if only because the crowd is hell-bent on driving a self-fulfilling prophecy. The chart below tells the story. As of Reuters' latest look at last month's average global portfolio allocation, stocks are only supposed to make up 45% of a proper portfolio. That's the lowest equity allocation in at least four years. Sure 45% is still a lot, but for stock-happy analysts, it's a screaming indictment of the foreseeable future for equities. Interestingly, alternative investments are picking up steam as a recommended opportunity. They should now make up a little more than 7% of an ideal portfolio, up from just a little more than 5% a couple of years ago. As for the Barron's poll, it was a bit more complicated, but we can boil the worry down to two data nuggets. Data nugget #1: Of the pros polled, only 32% expect the market to rise by 10% or more within the next 12 months. The other 68% don't see it happening. Data nugget #2: Of those same pros, 66% of them do see the market falling 10% or more within the next year, while only 34% don't think it will happen. So, is this a reason to sweat? You know, I don't think it is, even though we tend to expect weakness at some point this year. The Barron's poll and subsequent article was right about one thing - the economy is getting better. It may not be great, but it's slogging along in a forward direction. It's not bad for stocks. It's just an exercise in patience. The Barron's story added, however, something I think is well worth heeding (and this is something I don't always agree with)... "The market will reward judicious stockpickers more than index followers, the managers predict, and value stocks will gain a decisive edge over growth-oriented issues. " Sounds great, but here's the rub - that's the kind of environment most dangerous to investors, as it's very difficult to differentiate between stock-picking, trading, investing in the market, and investing in individual stocks. My advice? This is one of the Elite Opportunity's specialties. Those of you who are already subscribers to the EO service know John Monroe and his crew maintain two different portfolios for this very reason. The short-term portfolio is a trading portfolio, with holding periods measured in weeks, if not days. The long-term portfolio uses holding periods of months, if not years. Never the twain shall meet, which is why both portfolios do so well. As of the latest look, since the beginning of 2014 the EO short-term portfolio has closed out 125 trades, with an average gain of 11%. The long-term portfolio is just as good by its relevant performance measures. Anyway, you get the idea - if Barron's is right (and if my non-contrarian read on the Reuters data is right), 2016 is apt to be a lethargic year, and you'll need to do some seriously-good stock picking if your portfolio is to make any meaningful progress. Fortunately we have access to John Monroe, which is why we're not worried about a tepid or slightly-bearish market. Here's how to take advantage of John's expertise, or just cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/ Here's the daily chart of the S&P 500. We won't discuss it today - we just wanted to show it to you. We'll pick up with the discussion on Tuesday when there's hopefully something a little more interesting to talk about.