News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Q3 Earnings Were Fine, But Outlooks Were Dialed Back More Than a Little
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Is everybody ready for the weekend? I know I am, though we've got just a couple of items we need to take care of before we can prop our feet up until Monday morning. First and foremost, I hope you've already signed up for our new free stock-picking service by text and e-mail. Like we mentioned to you yesterday, all the stock recommendations that were being put into this free end-of-day newsletter are now going to be delivered through a text alert and/or separate e-mail service. You'll still get the newsletter you're reading right now, chock full of valuable commentary and hard-hitting op-eds. In order to bring you more trading ideas in a more timely fashion, though, we've had to move to a separate text-alert and e-mail system just for those picks. That's not the really exciting part of this upgrade, however. What you should be really jazzed about with this new service is that the Elite Opportunity team will be issuing the picks. I've highlighted some of the EO's trades here in this free newsletter from time to time, but honestly, I've only scratched the surface. It seems like John Monroe and his crew are publishing winning ideas - and I mean big winners - every other day. John called Amazon (AMZN) a short idea back on September 12th, and traders who followed that advice were up 12% on Amazon's pullback by late October. The JetBlue (JBLU) trade we were playing with that was up 11% for us as of yesterday? Yeah, well, Elite Opportunity members got that pick a few days before we did, and they're up 26% on it. All told, the cumulative total of all the EO's picks in 2013 reached 1733%, with an average return per pick of more than 50%. I can't wait to see 2014's full-year statistics, which I'm sure will be impressive too. Now you've got a chance to benefit from the same brains that produced that kind of performance, and you can do so for free. There's no reason not to sign up. Or, look at it like this... if you've been hesitant to become an EO member, here's a chance to get just a small taste of the stock-picking full Elite Opportunity members are getting every day. Make them prove their worth to you! We know a bunch of you have signed up already, and we're as excited to have you on the stock-pick list as you seem to be to be on it. That being said... Just so there's no confusion, while there's no denying we here at the SmallCap Network love small caps and micro cap stocks (and the occasional OTC listed equity), these AREN'T what you'll be getting when you sign up for the free trading alerts or the Elite Opportunity service. The fact of the matter is, while small caps and micro caps offer the most upside potential, they should only make up a small portion of your total portfolio. The bulk of your holdings should be mid and large caps, and the bulk of them should be NYSE and NASDAQ listed securities. It's this segment of your portfolio the EO service and our free picks service are aiming to grow. This is where the risk-vs-reward balance for a stock allows you make bigger and more meaningful bets, and frankly, it's in this segment of the market where John Monroe and his team can really shine... by factoring in major market trends and economic data - which matter more for large and mid caps - before suggesting a stock. So again, there's no real reason not to become a subscriber to our new free picks service. It's easy to sign up too. Just go here to start the registration process. Or, cut and past this link: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEOL/v1/ P.S. Some of you e-mailed this question in yesterday, so odds are good many more of you were wondering. Yes, you can sign up for the free trading alerts with just an e-mail address. It won't do you quite as much good, however, because you won't be getting the alerts when the text recipients do. The trade notifications will come later to e-mail addresses, and it's possible that in a few cases they'll come too late to act on an idea. It just depends on how fast a stock is moving. Still, it's worth signing up no matter how you prefer your delivery. Join today. Unemployment Reality Check You already know it was employment-data day, and you probably already know the unemployment rate dropped from 5.9% to 5.8% in the shadow of 214,000 newly-created jobs. It's encouraging. As is usually the case though, some more information is needed to really get a grip on where we are on the employment front. I suppose the most important data nugget you haven't heard yet is that as of the end of October, there were 147.283 million people in this country were working. That's another record; the prior peak was 146.320 million in March of 2011. While the raw number is good, it's still a little bit tainted. Only 62.8% of the populous is even officially in the labor force right now, versus a peak of 66.1% in August of 2008. Only 59.2% of the populous is employed right now, which is higher than September's reading of 59.0%, but still below the peak of 63.4% in December of 2006. And no, we can't blame it all on the mass retirement of baby boomers. The reality is, job growth hasn't kept up with population growth. Whatever the case, the 147.283 million workers we have now was up 683,000 from September's level of 146.600 million. The number of unemployed people fell from 9.262 million in September to 8.995 million for last month... a drop of 267,000. The size of the labor force (employed or not) grew by 416,000 people, from 155.862 million to 156.278 million. The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the total number of unemployed people by the total size of the labor force, so a drop was inevitable this time around. The only real negative we can offer with last month's employment news was the figure of those who aren't being counted as part of the labor force but would like to have a job if one was available. That number grew 188,000, from 6.349 million people to 6.537 million. It doesn't change the fact that we're seeing overall improvement, however. I know a lot of people are still saying the labor market is a major liability for the stock market, and I'm not going to deny the numbers make it look a little healthier than it actually is. To be perfectly honest though, there's not a lot investors have to complain about on the jobs front. Earnings Season Update We'll talk more about this next week, but since we promised it to you in yesterday's newsletter we'll go ahead and get the Q3 earnings results (so far) in your hands. As of yesterday, with 90% of the S&P 500's companies having reported last quarter's results, the S&P 500 is on pace to post a profit of $29.83 per share for Q3. That's down about a dime from the $29.93 being predicted at the beginning of earnings season, which is nothing. And, that $29.83 is 10.8% stronger than the year-ago figure of $26.92. Now, don't get too excited just yet. While the Q3 figure was pretty good, my long-standing fear has been many investors were willing to pay a premium for stocks now based on frothy growth forecasts that simply weren't achievable. Sure enough, the forward-looking estimates were whittled down, which means the forward-looking P/E ratio was pushed up. For perspective, before third quarter earnings season began, the pros at Standard & Poor's were expecting the S&P 500 to post a profit of $136.12 for all of 2015. Now that figure is $133.92... a 1.6% curb. It's not a lot, but it's more than a little. It's also worth mentioning the forecasts tend to slide lower all the way up until the time the reports start flowing in. Just as a reminder, at this point a year ago analysts thought the S&P 500 would earn $121.83 in 2014. Now that we're almost done with 2014, we know the S&P 500 is only going to earn about $117.62 this year. That's a contraction of about 3.5% over the course of twelve months. I have no reason to think that outlook for $133.92 next year won't go through a similar 3.5% contraction over the coming twelve months, putting the figure at $122.23 - give or take - when it's all said and done. Whatever the case, the trailing P/E for the S&P 500 now stands at 17.7, and the forward-looking P/E has blossomed to 15.7.... and that's based on current earnings outlooks. Pump up the forward-looking P/E by 3.5% if you want to get a plausible, realistic projected valuation. Like I said, we'll talk more about it next week. I just wanted to plant some seeds today. In the meantime, make sure you start the coming trading week on the right foot by signing up for the free text and e-mail alert stock picking service, which you'll get in addition to this newsletter. Just go here, and we'll walk you through the rest.