Happy hump-day, folks. Did everybody make some money today?It would have been tough to, considering the market's bearish action. Stocks reversed course from yesterday's impressive-but-completely-unsupported bullishness to fall back under some key lines in the sand on Wednesday.
Thing is, there were a handful of people that did manage to make some rather good money despite Wednesday's marketwide weakness. Elite Opportunity members were on the beneficial end of several short trade (bearish) recommendations John Monroe has made over the course of the past few days. Among them were bearish calls on Disney (DIS), Macy's (M), and Nordstrom's (JWN), which were down 4.5%,14%, and 7% - respectively - for today's trading. Could your portfolio have used a few winning trades like that today?
Here's the thing. We know for many of you the idea of shorting a stock may seem a little daunting. We get that. The fact of the matter is though, opening up your strategy playbook to betting against stocks rather than limiting your options to just buying low and then selling high introduces a whole new world of opportunity.
Indeed, in a market environment like the one we've been for over a year (the S&P 500 is right where it was November of 2014 as of today's value) there have been very few actual "investment" opportunities. The only way to make any money since late-2014 has been trading, and half of those opportunities have been betting against stocks.
So the question is, can you really afford NOT to use the less-common strategy of selling high and then buying low?
If you're ready to take your trading to the next level in this way but still want some guidance, the Elite Opportunity newsletter is second to none when it comes to making money in a down market. John once again proved that today with his recent gains on Macy's, Nordstrom's, and Disney.
And yet, picking individual stock's or ETFs to short is only part of the Elite Opportunity's arsenal. I'd say far more often than not John's actually making bearish trading recommendations on index-based ETFs and leveraged index-based ETFs. These particular funds can move two or three times as much as the broad market does, and many of them are designed to move higher when stocks are moving lower. In other words, a 5% pullback from the broad market could mean a 15% gain for your portfolio in no time at all. And like I've said before, John's the best when it comes to figuring out where the market's short-term turning points are.
Bottom line: If you're headed into a usually-lethargic summertime in a year when the market looks especially vulnerable to a summer pullback without having the Elite Opportunity newsletter as your roadmap, not only are you missing opportunities, you're setting yourself up for some significant frustration.
Don't miss the next bearish call like the one John offered regarding Macy's before today's implosion. Here's how, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/
Anyway, we don't actually have a lot of talk about today. We do have a few charts to update for you though, starting with a look at the U.S. Dollar Index at how it relates to bond yields and bond prices.
In short, as we figured would be the case a week ago, bond prices continue to benefit from the ongoing deterioration of interest rates. It's also worth noting that last week's bullish reversal effort from the U.S. dollar has already come to a close, with the U.S. Dollar Index rolling over today and likely starting another bearish leg of a rather well-developed downtrend.
The fact that yields didn't stop falling even though the dollar bounced on Tuesday of last week was a strong clue the dollar's rally wasn't going to persist.
In response to the dollar's new weakness, crude oil prices advanced about 3%, moving to within reach of new multi-month highs. It was hardly the only commodity benefiting from the renewed weakness of the U.S. dollar though.
As for the market, I had a sneaking suspicion Tuesday's bullishness wasn't the real deal.
As we discuss frequently, rallies and selloffs need volume to be sustained, and there just wasn't much volume behind the bullishness for the three previous trading days. Sure enough, today happened. The S&P 500 lost 0.96% of its value, pulled back under its 20-day moving average line, and it did so on better - though still not huge - volume.
I have to wonder if the VIX is also gearing up for a move higher. That's sure what the hammer-shaped bar looks like today.
The NASDAQ Composite came in even worse than the S&P 500 did, closing below yesterday's poor open. It looks like all it took was a brush of the 50-day moving average line (purple) to send stocks back, and in the case of the NASDAQ, the volume was a little more significant.
There are still a few tricks the bulls could pull out of their sack. Namely, both the indices have a couple of key support lines below them rather than above them. We'll just have to see if the indices use them as such when the time comes. Who knows? Maybe we won't even get the chance to test them as floors.
In any case, I liked what John had to say about the situation we're in right now:
"My biggest concern at this point is depending on how things shape up here over the next few days, there could exist an overly crowded trade to the short side, which could end up providing the "plunge protection team" with some fuel to take these markets higher. I know that sounds contrary to logic, but believe me, it happens, and it happens more than most might think."
He's right. A sudden sharp pullback will invite an easy-to-make bounce. A slow, gradual selloff will be tougher to halt, and that assumes the plunge protection team even bothers trying to thwart it. You have to think the powers-that-be know they can't stave off a decent corrective move forever. Maybe if they let it (make it?) happen this summer when traders are expecting market tepidness anyway it will ease the pain and set up the usual Q4 rally.
Whatever the case, I will tell you John Monroe suggested a new set of trades today designed to capitalize on the unique situation we're in right now. He used ETFs to make the trade, though he also recommended trading options instead as a way of actually reducing the risk of those trades.
And his outlook for the market held plenty of water.
Again, you don't want to be wandering around this unpredictable market right now without an experienced guide who can help make you money rather than evaporate it. John's the guy. Here's how.