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VOLUME
04: ISSUE 41
Feature:
Spectrum - Of cash, contracts and the grassy knoll.
A little over a year ago, Spectrum Sciences
(OTCBB: SPSC)
was in fairly dire straights. Previous management made some bad corporate
choices and the company teetered on the verge of oblivion.
That
was then...
Fast forward to yesterday. The company
filed its quarterly report--a 10QSB--and its financial picture looks markedly
different.
While we are actually quite
surprised that the shares pulled back to $1.17 we believe that the sirocco
that has blown through the shares of late has resulted in a significant
point of entry for risk- oriented investors.
Here are the salient points:
As of May 18th, cash and equivalents
on hand stands at $28.8 million dollars
Shares outstanding 40 million
Revenues for the first quarter up 10
percent to $3.6 million over the same period 2003. Total revenue FY2003
$13.3 million
Book value of almost 90 cents a share
Large deal potential, including the
$45 million Gila Bend Range management contract to be awarded-- hopefully
to SPSC--in the next few weeks
Negligible debt-- largely consisting
of a fully secured mortgage of just over $1.4 million
Order backlog (as at March 30) of approximately
$8.5 million.
I
will grant you, the chart looks ugly, even though the fundamentals of the
company have been growing steadily. Some recent negative--and apparently
flawed--press was preceded and followed by what appears to be a concerted
attack by rabid short-sellers, ultimately roiling the share price down
to $1.17.
Remember our caution last piece:
SmallCaps can be risky and extremely volatile. If you can't stand the prickly
heat... well, you know the rest.
Do the math
Here's our opinion of the situation.
With the numbers as we know them, it appears that with the shares at $1.30,
and net free cash approaching $29 million, the cash component of the share
price is roughly 75 cents or 66 percent of the current price. Strip out
the cash component and you're buying the business for around 50 cents a
share. As well, the shares are trading at roughly 25 percent above book
value.
We believe that for risk-oriented
investors, the shares, even on a purely mathematical basis, represent a
compelling risk/reward situation and should be accumulated.
Technically, the shares have been
more than bombed out. However, to be safe, a stop loss at the $1.05-$1.10
level would be prudent.
The company is also the subject of
an informal SEC investigation to determine--among a few other things--Spectrum's
relationship with one of its consultants, Robert Genovese. The arrangement
with Mr. Genovese has been terminated at least until the questions are
cleared up. The company has and will continue to cooperate fully to satisfy
any queries the regulators may have.
Lone Gunman?
The grassy knoll part is this: it
seems passing strange that after a decent run-up from December 2003 to
April 2004, the shares were virtually carpet bombed by what appears to
be a concerted effort by short sellers to capitalize on some perceived
controversy that hit the stock. The rapid rise in the share price to $4
began a few days prior to the first NY Times article published on April
29th to which, as we reported on May 5th, the company strongly responded.
The latest decline to $1.17 from just under $2 began a few days prior to
the publication, Tuesday, of a NYT follow-up piece. I leave it to the readership
to discern whether the timing of all these actions was mere coincidence.
Now, with the shares virtually back
to the levels they were before the rise began in December, Spectrum is
a completely different and, we believe, more viable company.
There's the long and the short of
it. The numbers look compelling and, although some controversy swirls,
Spectrum continues to execute its business plan against a backdrop of virtually
no debt, a sizeable bag o' cash, a significant order backlog and excellent
prospects for both more acquisitions as well as further significant contract
wins.
We will continue to monitor and report
on the situation, as the facts are made
We
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