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VOLUME
04: ISSUE 17
Feature:
Assure Energy - Hot Town, Summer in the City.
As we wait for drilling results, production
and earnings number for Assure Energy (OTCBB:
ASURF) some discussion of the sector situation would help to show
why investors need to have energy exposure--and specifically Assure.
We strongly reiterate that
investors continue to accumulate Assure shares at these levels both for
the macro reasons noted below as well as drilling results and other corporate
announcements to come.
Macro points:
Oil refuses to drop below $35 a barrel
Natural Gas has built a price floor
of around $5-plus per mcf
Analyst predictions that natural gas
prices could rise to $7 per mcf by summer 2004
Winter exit reserves of Natural Gas
are around 800 billion cubic feet, well below historic level of 1.1 trillion.
Gas reserves will have to be built to
2.2-2.8 trillion cubic feet by end October 2004.
Analysts have begun raising estimates
for exploration and production companies as well as share price targets
Predicted rise of gasoline prices to
perhaps $3 a gallon this summer will focus investors on energy stocks.
As
we have mentioned in previous articles, energy demand, specifically natural
gas, is now a year-round phenomena. As the feed stock of choice for gas-fired
electricity production, natural gas has already began to outstrip the pre-eminence
of oil in the hearts, minds and wallets of consumers. To not have
portfolio exposure to natural gas exploration companies is, frankly, an
invitation to a massive loss of opportunity.
Canada gives the US gas....
As the largest consumer of natural
gas, there is likely little concern where the US gets its product either
for current power needs or to bolster the reserves that both warm and cool
virtually the entire country. Canada accounts for 30 percent of US oil
and gas imports. Drilling in Canada is up 60 percent in the last 20 years
while US drilling is down 71 percent over the same period. Proximity, exploration
and discoveries leading to increased production will undoubtedly increase
the amount of oil/gas Canada ships to the US.
Assure
Energy is exploring and drilling wells and boasts significant production
and reserves in Canada within the Western Sedimentary Basin, the most prolific
gas play in the world.
All one has to do to see this graphically
is to look at the Amex Natural Gas Index (AMEX:
XNG) to see the very strong price trend--up 25 percent-- for the
constituent companies that has unfolded over the last year. We believe
that the Index --currently 227--will test its two-year high of north of
250. In other words, there is room for the index--and by extension its constituents--to
run.
Better an owner than a victim.
Over the same period, shares in Assure
have actually outperformed the index--up 40 percent--and up 12 percent since
we alerted readers in the fall of 2003. We believe that pending numbers
from the current drilling program --which should be out soon--will push
Assure to the next level among its peers. As we have also said, those investors
who wait for those numbers will likely miss a significant move in the share
price.
Assure
shares have eased to $4.15-$4.20 level from a recent high of $4.75. We
believe this represents a reasonable floor for the share price and, as
well, a decent entry point for investors as the winter/summer energy season
heats (no pun, promise) ups. Consumers have, and will continue to feel
the sting of higher energy prices. To be on the other side of that
equation--owning energy stocks as a hedge--seems almost a no-brainer.
It's a matter of logic....
In other words, owning an energy
exploration company that is focused on converting assets in the ground
to assets on its balance sheet within a sector that won't see commodity
prices drop anytime soon seems a reasonable-- even a very compelling--
risk/reward situation.
Assure is growing through acquisition
and through the drill bit. Against the supply/demand backdrop noted above,
this approach is really the only one that makes sense to quickly unearth
production and develop reserves to meet the insatiable North American thirst
for energy.
The continuing, and growing supply/demand
shortfall for natural gas will further exacerbate the rising price problem
for businesses and consumers . Investors who have or are considering purchasing
shares in quality exploration companies such as Assure already know that.
Further, investors who do the math
and act, will not only offset those their own household or business energy
price increases, but will profit significantly as energy demand continues
to outstrip supply.
As we said, truly a no-brainer.
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