Be sure to mark the date. August 1st, 2013 is the day the S&P 500 topped 1700 for the first time ever, fighting its way above a key short-term ceiling at 1697 to boot. The prod? Well, it was mostly the Fed's dovish spin on things yesterday, though this morning's low(ish) new unemployment claims figure of 326,000 - a multi-year low - certainly didn't hurt.
As uncomfortable as I am with the idea, I think we have to take things at face value and assume the new trend is going to remain intact until further notice. On the flipside, there's one more hurdle I see dead ahead. We'll have to clear it first before officially getting back into full breakout mode.
We'll look at what that hurdle is in a moment. First, we need to take care of a little business, like closing one of the open mental trades we've had on our plate for a few weeks.
Bye Bye J.C. Penney
I know we've been ultra-focused on our recent trading ideas this week, pulling the plug on 3D printers Tuesday, suggesting Commercial Metals (CMC) on Monday, and updating you on some of our other open ideas here and there. But, we've got one more item to cross off our list today - we're axing J.C. Penney (JCP) from our mental portfolio.
Just to be clear, we still like the company. While it's certainly not back on top in the retailing world, the organization still has a name it can leverage, and it's not beyond salvaging. The exit of Ron Johnson and the re-hiring of the former CEO was a turning point. While waiting for full proof of the turnaround seems logical on the surface, veteran traders know how this works - if you wait to see all the conclusive proof you need to see before buying into a turnaround, you're going to miss the bulk of the stock's rally. Here's the problem specific to JCP... the majority of the market still doesn't think JCP is ready to turn things around. Jon Najarian's pessimism on the company today drove the final nail into the coffin. Right or wrong, we're not interested in fighting the tape.
Getting out here around $14.69 basically translates into a breakeven from our entry on April 9th when shares were valued at $13.90.
If my memory serves me correctly, that leaves us with Xerox (XRX) as an open idea picked on June 11th, Commercial Metals Company from yesterday, and Northwest Pipe (NWPX) from June 28th. All are still going strong, though I'm not especially thrilled with one of them of late.
As of today, Xerox shares are up 8% since the suggestion from June 11th, which isn't huge, but it was never designed to be a red-hot runner. Like I said then, our only goal with XRX was to find a safe and productive place to put some money during what started out as a tepid summer. The company beat Q2's earnings estimates in the meantime.
Commercial Metals is our new trade, only being put in the mental portfolio on Monday. But, it's off to a great start already. CMC popped a couple of percentage points today (on no news), which isn't a lot, but the move breaks through a recent ceiling around $15.60. It's a small move, but an important move in that it gets the ball rolling again.
The only name I'm thrilled with at this point is Northwest Pipe, not because we haven't done well with it so far, but because the rally's started to deteriorate this week. We're still up about 7% from our late-June suggestion to you guys, but we started to see lower lows and lower highs this week, with a move under the 20-day moving average line. I'd like to leave it alone and let this intermediate-term idea just find its way back to a bullish path on its own. But, I may not be so generous should NWPX move under this week's floor at $29.60.
And remember, we already got out of CryoLife (CRY) on July 17th, locking down a 16% gain after stepping into the stock on July 8th. Good thing we did, too, as CRY shares did end up pulling back from the high near where we got out. Just so you know though, I'm mulling a re-entry on CryoLife.
I know three active ideas isn't many. We try to keep the ideas coming, but with all the other things we need to pack into the newsletter, we can't always keep a full portfolio. A thought occurred to me today, however, that might help all of us.
I'm sure most of you recognize how the SCN site has really beefed up its publishing and portfolio-management tools lately, but have you really looked at all the choices you have in sorting out which of those picks or commentaries you focus on? The nearby image explains. At the site, along the top menu, you've got a 'Stock Picks' button. If you roll your mouse over the words 'Stock Picks', you'll see the nearby menu where you can limit your search to ideas that suit you perfectly.... stocks above $5.00, small caps, long-term picks, short or long, and a bunch of others. The point is, it'd be difficult to run out of stocks to consider if you're looking for some activity, no matter how specific you are in your search.
Or, better still, why not establish yourself as one of the site's stock-picking heroes? It's easy.... just go to the site, and choose 'buy' or 'sell' from any stock's StockHQ page. All the people we tout from time to time here in the newsletter are folks just like you with better-than-average hunches. If you're really good, it may even mean you can earn some money to keep posting your picks. More on that later. For now, let's dig into today's market action.
Here's Where Things Get Interesting
Kudos to the stock market. Like I told you above, the S&P 500 as well as the Dow both reached record levels today, in pretty impressive fashion too. The volume behind the move wasn't bad, and it's not like traders got giddy with their bullishness (which tends to happen right when the market's ready to top out). It is what it is, even if the indices did get a little ahead of themselves.
About the remaining hurdle, the NASDAQ Composite's rally stopped at its upper 20-day Bollinger band on Thursday. The S&P 500 got within eight points of its now-converged upper 20-day and 50-day Bollinger bands. The bears are going to put up a fight at those band lines. That doesn't mean the bears will win that fight, but they'll do their best. The indices may even fall back a little for a couple of days before taking another swing at a move above those key levels. But, as long as the indices don't move under the key floors established over the past couple of weeks (1677 for the S&P 500), they'll remain in position for a break above their upper Bollinger band lines. The next uptick after a modest pullback - or even just a sideways period - would be a great entry point.
I believe Standard & Poor's will have the updated earnings data posted tonight, so I'll have an updated earnings report card for you tomorrow. Friday is also when we'll get July's unemployment rate and payrolls data. You'll get the basic numbers in the morning, but we'll have the rest of the numbers - and the rest of the story - for you tomorrow evening.