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VOLUME 07 : ISSUE 67
CCBEF's
Forest Is Behind All The Trees
With
earnings season now here, it could be easy to get sidetracked by all the
noise. That could be unfortunate though, if it meant losing sight of Clearly
Canadian (OTCBB: CCBEF)
- you may end up missing out on a big move. So, today's edition
is just to make sure you keep it on your radar. Why? Two reasons......technicals,
and fundamentals.
As
for the fundamental story, we've summarized some of the recent growth announcements
below. I have to say I was blown away by the results they seem to be on
track to achieve - I didn't realize some of the numbers were so big.
In terms of the chart's technicals, I see a potential breakout on the
horizon. Plus, some of the underlying dynamics tell me traders are
just itching to push this stock higher soon. Read on to get my take on
the whole scenario right now.
A
Cliché For Every Occasion
Most
of you probably recognize by now I have mixed (ok, polarized) feelings
about clichés. I love them because they're an easy way for me to
make a point. Yet I don't like them, well, because they're clichés.
Nonetheless, I certainly wasn't at a loss for them yesterday when I was
doing some bigger-picture thinking about Clearly Canadian.
You
can't see the forest for the trees.
It's
not like Clearly Canadian hasn't had a lot to tell the market recently.
Quite the opposite - they've been on a roll with news, with six
press releases over the last month or so (and not just a bunch of 'fluff'
either....real news). That may be why the story still seems a little obscure....it's
too much for investors to process during even a relatively short period
of time. Today's newsletter should cut out some of the clutter.
So
what does the forest look like? Here's the broad brush stroke as I
see it....the company's recent entry into the organic food world is
working well. Check it out.....
As
of last month, the company expects revenue from My Organic Baby in 2007
to grow over 350% from its 2006 revenue. Same store weekly sales are already
up nearly 100% in the past three months.
My Organic
Baby sales are expected to add close to $5,000,000 worth revenue in 2007.
The number
of stores offering My Organic Baby products has more than doubled so far
this year to approximately 800 stores. That figure is expected to double
again within 12 months to approximately 1,600 stores.
The acquisition
of natural snack food company DMR Food Corporation is expected to add close
to $4,500,000 worth of revenue in 2007.
Just for
perspective, last year (before the DMR and My Organic Baby acquisitions)
Clearly Canadian did about $7.4 million in sales, making the expansion
of all their new lines a huge opportunity for improvement. What else is
there to say?
Talk
about being in the right place at the right time!
I was
talking to a guy who works closely with the company yesterday, and he said
something to me that just stuck in my head as being very true, but very
unrealized. You know how Clearly Canadian was originally billed as an 'alternative'
beverage? Well, maybe the old alternative is becoming the new mainstream.
In just the last couple of years, healthy-choice drinks and snacks have
really made their way into mass market channels. The My Organic Baby line
is now found in Babies 'R' Us stores. Canada's largest grocery store now
carries Clearly's new Natural Enhanced Waters. The new distribution channel
still being assembled is going to have muscle comparable to Coke's or Pepsi's
when it's all said and done.
I really
think organic and healthy foods are much more than fad. I see enormous
future growth in this segment, and I'm not the only one. The thing is,
at this stage of the organic/health game, if you're not 'in', it's going
to be tough to break in when you're up against established names like Clearly
Canadian. Why do you think Coke bough Glaceau for $4 billion? I
suspect Coke knows it would be nearly impossible to introduce a new line.
Good thing Clearly already has a foothold.
The
whole is greater than the sum of its parts.
I
think the root of Clearly's recent growth is also going to be the root
of any future growth. In short, their product lines are all complimentary.
Somebody who buys an Enhanced Water at a convenience store may also pick
up some sort of organic snack. Someone interested in an organic snack at
a convenience store is also likely to be interested in organic baby food.
Health savvy consumers who opt for organic baby food may also choose to
drink water rather than soda. Point being, these consumers tend to make
consistently
healthy choices. Why shouldn't one company tap into that consistency?
The
other synergy is the distribution network. I think it's got to be easier
to add a new product line where another one already exists. Clearly Canadian
(and DMR and My Organic Baby for that matter) already had relationships
individually with their own outlets. Now those relationships can be used
to expand all their lines horizontally as well as vertically. In
fact, we're already starting to see this happen. I predict that the bigger
their footprint gets, the faster it will start to grow.
Charting
These Choppy Waters
Clearly
Canadian's recent chart reminds me of one of those 'super balls'.....you
know - the little miniature rubber ball that once it's set in motion, seems
to just go on bouncing up and down forever. The thing is, I think one of
these days the up-and-down action is going to stop and we're finally going
to see a prolonged trend play out. Is now that time?
The
optimist in me wants to say 'sure, why not?' The realist in me (and
the part that I think does you guys the most good) just says 'maybe'.
But, it's an important 'maybe' - one I think some other folks are already
counting on turning into a 'yes'. Here's what I mean.....
Look
at all those horizontal lines on the nearby chart. Though they don't mark
every single peak and bottom with perfection, they catch most of them pretty
well. I'd consider this a consolidation mode after the July-thru-August
pullback from last year (consolidations don't just have to happen after
a rally). These sideways periods are a chance for the market to basically
regroup, and gear up for the next big move - whatever direction that
may be.
So
what makes me think the next move is likely to be a bullish one? Well
for starters, just go back to the previous sections and reread the kinds
of numbers the new and improved Clearly Canadian is putting up. Investors
tend to take notice of that kind of stuff, and eventually, enough of them
could take notice to really spark a buying spree. The other reason, though,
is more objective and less objective - volume.
I've
also plotted an accumulation-distribution line and an on-balance-volume
line on this chart. Both are confirming my suspicions with their general
rise....the rallies are being made on higher volume than the dips. It hasn't
been enough yet to yank the stock out of this trading range, but we seem
to be getting closer to making it happen every week.
Right
now, I believe the major hurdles are at $3.00, and at $3.25. Beyond
there, we're back to new 52-week highs, without any real ceiling in sight
until we get back to last year's high near $4.55. So, do I feel it make
sense for anybody interested to wait for the breakout move, or to jump
in now? You know, I think a decision like that has to be up to the individual.
I will say this though....as each resistance line is breached, breaking
the next one is apt to get easier. So, if now is indeed the beginning
of something bigger, just understand you're sacrificing gains for added
certainty by waiting. (But isn't that always the trade-off?)
Our
target of $5.15 still stands, with a suggested stop of $1.99. We established
that expectation early last year, based on the potential progress the company
said they could make. So far, they haven't let us down. They may not get
there tomorrow, but we still feel CCBEF shares are worth every bit of $5.15.
We
Value Your Feedback
Got comments, questions or suggestions?
Send 'em on over: Email
the Editor
If you wish to send a written request
or inquiry, please send it to our physical address:
TGR Group, LLC
4653 Carmel Mtn Rd Suite 308 #402
San Diego, CA 92130
MIV
Conference Call Scheduled.....
....and
I for one am more than a little excited. After learning in early June that
an MIV Therapeutics (OTCBB:
MIVT) biocompatible heart stent had been implanted in a human for the
first time, I really felt like the company had passed a milestone. It looks
like some other (big) investors agreed, as MIV raised $11.7 million a few
days ago with a private placement deal. Other than those two tidbits though,
we haven't heard a lot from the company lately.
So
why am I excited? Because the company had a bunch of things going in before
that....things I'd like to hear more about. Specifically, in April, we
learned MIV's acquisition of Biosync Scientific (and its heart stent technology)
was finally reaping rewards, as the company began selling those Biosync
stents and related devices in India, parts of Asia, and parts of Europe.
It was MIV's first-ever revenue, and though those stents being sold weren't
the highly-promising biocompatible stents MIV has been developing for a
while now, revenue is still revenue.
Plus,
I'd also like to hear the company's initial thoughts on getting their first
hydroxyapatite-coated stent into a patient.
Fortunately,
we won't have to wait much longer for an update - MIV Therapeutics will
be hosting a conference call to get all of us up to speed.
The
call is scheduled for Friday, July 13th, at 11 a.m. EST. Callers within
the United States can access the conference call by calling (800) 398-9402.
International callers can dial (612) 234-9960. When prompted, just tell
the operator you would like to connect to the MIV Therapeutics conference
call.
You
can also listen to the online audio web simulcast of the call, accessible
by clicking
here.
Earnings
Scoreboard (So Far)
It's
only just begun, but already we've seen some surprises and disappointments
from major names.
Motorola
(NYSE: MOT) warned
their Q2 sales and earnings would fall short of forecasts, and they followed
that announcement with a dire mobile phone forecast.
J.C.
Penney (NYSE: JCP)
didn't release quarterly earnings yet, but did reaffirm their expectation
of 77 cents per share in Q2.
Marriott
Hotels (NYSE: MAR) improved
their quarterly earnings by 11%.
Yum!
Brands (NYSE: YUM)
topped their estimates with an 11.5% rise in profits.
Genentech
(NYSE: DNA) saw
their earnings improve by 41% in Q2.
Home
Depot (NYSE: HD)
has not yet reported, but already warned of a shortfall.
Sears
Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD)
also
lowered their guidance.
Alcoa
(NYSE: AA)
officially reported a 3.9% drop in Q2 earnings.
Lexmark
(NYSE: LXK)
reeled in its profit outlook as well.
Last
month's retail sales, however, seem to be more of a mixed bag. J.C. Penney's
June sales (same store) were off by 1.5%, while Wal-Mart's (NYSE:
WMT) were up 2.4%. Chico's (NYSE:
CHS) sales dropped 7.3% last month, and Costco (NASDAQ:
COST) saw a 6% gain in June's top line.
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The Small Cap
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to as "SCN") , is an independent electronic publication committed to providing
its readers with factual information on select publicly traded companies.
SCN is owned and operated by TGR Group, LLC ("TGR"). All companies are
chosen on the basis of certain financial analysis and other pertinent criteria
with a view toward maximizing the upside potential for investors while
minimizing the downside risk, whenever possible. Moreover, as detailed
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TGR Group LLC has been paid a fee
of $30,000 and pledged 150,000 warrants with an exercise price of $2, currently
convertible into restricted shares of Clearly Canadian, by Level III Research,
for its coverage of Clearly Canadian. The aforementioned shares have become
eligible to be free trading as a result of a registration statement.
From March of 2005 through July of
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of the company. In addition, TGR Group LLC was also awarded 272,000 warrants
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and shares have been sold in the open market. On April 3rd of 2007, MIV
Therapeutics renewed coverage and paid TGR Group, LLC $30,000 in cash and
100,000 warrants, convertible into restricted shares at $.50. In addition,
TGR Group has been awarded 190,000 warrants, convertible at $.50 into free
trading shares, by Trilogy Capital Partners for coverage of the company.
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