Clearly the market heard what it wanted to hear today regarding the government's budget and debt-ceiling debates. There's not been any actual progress, mind you, but the tone has changed to one where at least both parties can discuss why they aren't interested in discussing anything. It's a start. The GOP and President Obama are supposed to meet on Friday to talk about extending the debt-ceiling deadline. Just remember a discussion isn't the same as a deal. Now, there's a good chance today's bounce was going to happen anyway, with or without what looks like sanity being restored in Washington DC. Every little bit helps though, you know? So how does today's action change our near-term market outlook? For the second time in three days I find myself saying the same thing ... the worst thing in the world the bulls can do for themselves is carry stocks upward so much and so fast that nervous traders have no choice but to lock in gains. The market could tack on a 0.3% gain for 20 days in a row, and nobody would give it a second though. When stocks bolt higher to the tune of 2.0% in one day, however, it just wreaks havoc with people's rational thinking. A lot of investors became would-be profit takers today. So, the question we need to be asking is, how long and how many times will investors be willing to celebrate an end to the impasse before swinging the other way? Answer: If history is any indication, the market will forget about the encouraging budget news roughly three days from now. At that point traders will already be looking for the next batch of economic or corporate news to try and figure out what stocks are broadly worth. An official end to the shutdown and debt-ceiling fiasco could spur stocks again, although most of any upside will already be priced in by then. Given just how unusual the current circumstances are, however, I don't even know if I'd be willing to make any kind of major assumption right now. The bottom line is, we'll stick with the bullish call from a couple of days ago, but tread lightly after today's crazy jump. There's not a lot of room left to move higher, and earnings season could be a real wild card once the dust in D.C. settles. This continues to be a day-by-day exercise. Sticking With Ixia In the meantime, we're not complaining about the market's rising tide since it's helping our open positions in Manitex International (MNTX), Global Indemnity plc (GBLI), Ixia (XXIA), and Kearny Financial (KRNY). I know Ixia slid under our mental stop level of $5.30 yesterday, but if there was ever a case where it pays to suspend your self-imposed rules for a day or two and let the market work its way through some volatility, this was it. We decided not to suggest selling it yesterday, wanting to give it the benefit of the doubt. And, it's a good thing we did. While we're not out of the woods yet, we're at least back above the $5.30 mark, and have a shot at going higher again. As for Manitex International, Global Indemnity, and Kearny Financial, there's no news - or even anything interesting - from any of those companies of late. They're just three stocks grinding out some gains in a tough environment. Back on the Radar If you've been a member of the SmallCap Network community for more than a few weeks, you may recall we exited our position in Commercial Metals (CMC) in late August. We still liked the stock, but we just couldn't risk hanging onto it after a decent-sized pullback. Thing is, great ideas never really go away - they just bide their time. It may well be time. Following the late-August dip, CMC almost immediately rebounded. The problem was, it rebounded a little too hastily, and by late September it looked overbought and ripe for a dip ... a dip that materialized, by the way. It's the dip in the meantime and today's renewal of the bigger uptrend prompting me to put it back on the radar. And, while it's not an official pick just yet, I can pretty much tell you it's going to happen sooner than later. Now, I know on the surface Commercial Metals shares don't look like anything particularly special. As was the case with our 20% score on Northwest Pipe (NWPX) though, I've got a feeling there's a lot more brewing on the longer-term chart than we can see on this near-term daily chart. The image below tells the tale. This stock's been getting squeezed into a wedge shape for a while, and there's not a lot of room left for CMC to bounce around inside the confines of a falling resistance line and a rising support line. It's not going to all unfurl tomorrow, but after YEARS of a buildup/consolidation phase, the right nudge could light a fire in a hurry. That's not to say I want to wait for a break above the line at $17.25; waiting may actually mean we miss a good portion of the initial breakout move. I'm just saying that's what I see brewing here. As a reminder, this is as much of a sector/industry play as it is a company-specific play. The Dow Jones U.S. Steel Index has been hinting at recovery for a while, and bigger-brother U.S. Steel (X) is looking better of late as well . I just think Commercial Metals would be a more potent way to play the bigger sector trend. Anyway, let's keep our powder dry for the time being, but odds are we'll step into CMC in the near future around the current price. Stay tuned. If you're looking for more frequent picks with a lot of upside, these guys are knocking 'em out of the park on a regular basis.