I continue to be amazed by how differently the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 charts can look and act. I know they're two completely different indices, but they're also supposed to be (relatively) marketwide barometers. Yet, the S&P 500 is still holding up reasonably well, while the NASDAQ continues to struggle. We have to look at both again, since the disparity between the two is the crux of the matter right now.
The good news is, the S&P 500 did end up finding support around 1840, which was the key floor we've been eying for a while. It didn't quite reach it, but it was close enough today to say we tested and pushed off of that support area. In fact, that low and subsequent bounce off what's become a fairly long-standing support level may be the beginning of a bounce back to the upper edge of the S&P 500's recent range... at 1884.
The bad news: The NASDAQ Composite, on the other hand, just logged its fourth losing day in the past five sessions, hitting new multi-week lows in the process. Yes, the composite bounced up and off of its lows too... a little. But, the NASDAQ is clearly the weakest link here.
The part of the NASDAQ's chart I'm most worried about isn't the index itself, however. It's the NASDAQ's Volatility Index, the VXN. Once again we saw it put some pressure on its upper Bollinger band, and when you take a step back and look at the VXN for the past four weeks or so, you can see it's worked its way into a shallow uptrend. That's a sign of traders thinking and positioning bearishly and/or defending themselves from a more significant pullback. There's still room for the VXN to keep climbing, however, so it's tough for me to tell you the market has already hit its short-term bottom.
So now what? Well, I can tell you now that the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity newsletter locked in a 13% gain on its Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (TZA) trade today, after placing that bearish bet back on the 18th... almost right at the market top. Nice call.
To be clear, it wasn't as if the EO made the exit explicitly because John Monroe is expecting a bounce here - TZA just happened to hit a pre-determined target. However, I think we can basically infer from the fact that the inverse ETF hit the Elite Opportunity's target today that the risk/reward ratio has shifted enough to where being bearish isn't worth the risk. Translation: Let's wait and see where this goes before committing to one stance or the other. The "obvious" and easy bear trade is done for the time being.
Bottom line: The market as a whole has been stuck in a rut lately, and that didn't change today. The bears are forcing the bulls to play their cards though, so we should see some trade-worthy clarity real soon, with the S&P 500 now pressing a key support level, and the VXN at an inflection point.
My guess is, the outcome will be a bearish one despite today's modest bounce. I'm basing my guess on the amount of volume we continue to see on bearish days. Since we have an opportunity to wait and see, though (which costs us nothing), we may as well use it. We'll try and take a closer look at the volume trends in Friday's newsletter.
3 Things to Know About Solar
Remember last week when we named solar power as one of 2014's top trade-worthy trends? We haven't forgotten about it, and we certainly haven't forgotten to look for the right pick from that space. We're just biding our time, waiting for the right stock to appear at the right price.
In the meantime we're adding to our due diligence on the whole sector, and passing the relevant stuff along to you as we dig it up. Today's the day for such an update.
I ran across three ideas that you may want to tuck away in the back of your mind, whether you use our trading idea down the road, or you decide to use one of your own ideas. I'll just pass the bigger picture along to you, but there's a link if more details on the idea are available.
1. Get familiar with the term 'yieldco', as the market is going to be flush with them within a few years.
What's a yieldco? In simplest terms, it's a stock that's designed to pay dividends to shareholders using the cash flow of a specific solar power project. I liken it to the master limited partnerships, or MLPs, that are common in the oil and gas industry.
Truth be told, I'm not crazy about the idea of yieldcos for investors. It's cheap capital for project developers, but from what I've seen and read so far, the projected yields aren't going to be strong enough to justify what's admittedly limited risk. I just see better ways to earn income. Just because I don't like 'em, however, doesn't mean they're not coming. Here's a closer look at the what and who of the advent of solar yieldcos.
2. I'm willing to bet most of you know this already, but just in case, solar concentration power (redirecting sunlight to a point to boil water) is on the way out. Photovoltaic (PV) is "where it's at", as only PV panels are ever going to be cost-effective enough to compete with fossil fuel power head-on.
There's a specific reason I'm making this point. The United States' first - and probably only - major solar concentration facility in the Mojave Desert is due to begin producing power this year. It's already been paid for, so cost-effectiveness isn't really an issue. But, between the point when the Ivanpah facility was begun and when it was finished, the price of photovoltaic cells plunged and there's no reason any new solar power plant builds would go the thermal route. Just make sure you're not investing in an antiquated technology. [Fortunately there aren't many of these stocks out there.] Here are some more details on the flaws of concentrated solar power.
3. Finally, whatever you do, don't limit your thinking to just the market you can see. There are no - well, few - geopolitical borders for solar power and solar panel makers any longer. There are several non-American companies on my radar, and most other major governments are pressing for solar power as much as the United States is. And yes, I'm talking about Japan and China.
I just wanted to get these ideas in front of you, since they're part of my mindset as I scour the market for the best ways to play the advent of solar power.
With all of that being said, I still don't have a particular solar power stock I like well enough to take a swing on, but I will tell you John Monroe found not one, but two solar power plays he liked well enough to add to the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity portfolio today. I like them both too, and to tell the truth, if you were getting hungry for a solar power stock pick, I wouldn't wait on me - I'd go ahead and take advantage of the free two-week test drive of the Elite Opportunity newsletter. You'll get immediate access to all the archived newsletters, so you can find out which two solar stocks Monroe picked. Here's how, or cut and paste this link:https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/