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VOLUME
02:
ISSUE 62
Trading Alert: Decorize Inc (DCZ)
Dell
Computer's (DELL)
Initial
Public Offering (IPO) was on June 22, 1988, at $8.50 per share
(approximately
$0.09/share today, on a split adjusted basis).
Despite the carnage in technology, Dell is still up over 9345%
since its IPO and over 1108% from when
the company was added to the S & P 500 on September 6, 1996.
According to the S & P, Dell was the best performing stock of the S&P
500 for the decade of the 1990s.
The reason for Dell's success is
due to its unique direct-to-customer business model which has effectively
pushed its competitors out of the industry. If the business model
is so successful then why haven't other companies played copy cat?
In the PC industry it is already too late to catch up with Dell.
However, the SmallCap Digest has found a company that has been successfully
implementing the direct-to-customer business model in the home furnishings
industry.
Decorize Inc (DCZ)
has
been on a tear, growing revenues from $711,202 in the nine months
ending in March 31st, 2001 to $9,370,387 in the same period for
2002. That is an increase of over 1217%,
which
forced us to check our numbers quite a few times to make sure this wasn't
an error. For fiscal year 2002, Decorize is expected to report revenues
of $14 million and next year the company could see $20-$25 million based
on conservative estimates. Despite the strong corporate performance
the company's stock has been largely ignored by the institutions.
However, this shouldn't be the case in the very near future. There
are rumors that a few small cap funds are taking a serious look at adding
Decorize to their portfolios.
We feel that
based on Decorize's business model and corporate performance the funds
will take positions in the company. In our past two editions we explained
how September is housing cleaning time for many of the funds and subsequently
new companies are added to their portfolios. Whether or not they will purchase
shares in the company only the fund managers know. However, in a
thinly traded stock such as Decorize, a large purchase by a fund would
move the shares up significantly.
Our price target
for Decorize is $3.25 per share which would represent a gain
of over 70% from
Friday's closing price of $1.90 per share. A stop loss
should be set between $1.60-$1.75 per share depending on
your risk tolerance.
Why has
this company been so successful? The biggest reason is its business
model which in many ways mimics that of Dell Computer. Decorize makes the
home furnishing industry more effective thus eliminating the non-value
added costs that have traditionally plagued the industry. The company strips
away layers of handling and storage steps to deliver products directly
from the Far East to the doors of retailers, at substantial cost savings.
Decorize has served more than 2,000 small and large retail accounts, including
national brand names Dillard's,
Rooms
To Go and Sears -- The
Great Indoors.
The growth
in housing has also helped fuel Decorize's growth. Take a look below
at a chart of housing starts and permits. The new numbers of homes
being built as well as existing homes all need furniture. Whether
there really is a housing bubble or not the bottom line is that there are
more homeowners today than ever. Will these homeowners purchase furniture
for their houses? Decorize's business model allows them to undercut
the competition on price while maintaining the quality and service that
customers expect. Thus, if homeowners decrease the amount of money they
spend on furniture it would drive more sales to Decorize as the large retailers
cut back on the amount of over priced furniture they buy and move towards
value.
Decorize
has so far been ignored but that is about to change. At Friday's
close of $1.90 per share, Decorize is valued at approximately
$19.8
million dollars. That is a little less than what calendar year
2002 sales are going to be. This is also on the cusp of the company
reporting its first quarter of operating profit which is
ending September 30, 2002. Decorize's business model is structured
as such that once operating profit is achieved, incremental sales fall
to the bottom line. This means if the company will be highly profitable
if it can increase sales from the current levels.
As with any investment there is always
risk. This newsletter is our opinion only, and not a solicitation
to buy this stock. The track record on our previous alerts can be
obtained by clicking
here.
D I S C
L A I M E R :
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