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VOLUME
05: ISSUE 3
Feature:
Reverse Splits - Less can be more.
Historically, a number of companies
that employ a reverse split strategy tend to see their shares do better
price-wise immediately after the split than in the longer term. Mainly
because a lot of reverse splits are done only for cosmetic reasons and
bring little fundamental horsepower to enhance shareholder value either
pre-or post-split.
Following a reverse split, nothing
really changes; the number of shares outstanding is reduced by the split
factor and the price reflects the lesser number of shares. So, if there
is a 1:10 reverse split of a 20 cent stock, shareholders will see each
1000 shares owned reduced to 100 shares post split, while the market price
adjusts to $2 a share. The market value of the holding doesn't change
post a reverse split. As well, the company's market cap remains
the same and the fundamentals don't change.
Caveat Emptor, most of the time...
A reverse split is a consolidation
of a large outstanding share position that has ballooned as a result of
a number of factors, including financings, stock options, acquisitions
etc acquired in a company's early days. The key thing with the success
of a reverse split isn't the act itself, as some would have you believe,
but the state of the underlying company's fundamentals.
The intelligentsia tends to dismiss
reverse splits out of hand; mainly because in a lot of cases, it appears
a shallow act of marketing to raise the share price, make the resultant
capital structure more attractive to institutional buyers or merely a weak
attempt to bolster a company's flagging fortunes.
We believe that for ballistic
and armored vehicle maker Force Protection, a reverse split should be viewed
as positive for both the company and its shareholders.
Why?
Simple. Strong fundamentals and prospects.
On December 30th, 2004, Force Protection
(OTCBB: FRCP)
received overwhelming support from its shareholders for the Board, at its
discretion, to reverse split the company's 200 million-odd shares between
1:2 and 1:12. No date has been announced for the proposed split that I've
seen, but given the impressive progress of the company over the last year,
the action can hardly be interpreted as either an act of market legerdemain
or corporate desperation.
While
there have been many trading opportunities in FRCP over the last year,
the shares have been primarily grinding away between 25 and 30 cents for
months. The activity appears to have perked up of late evidenced by a significant
increase in daily trading volume. We would like to see a run to the highs
of December last as a test of resistance and believe that a break above
40 cents would be very cool for those patient investors who have kept the
faith.
FRCP is a long-term play, punctuated
by good trading opportunities. We continue to suggest accumulation under
30 cents and especially on dips to the mid-20 cent level.
One is not like the others.
Unlike a lot of companies that employ
the reverse split tactic, FRCP has a solid business, is in the right sector
at the right time and has come out of 2004 with significant contracts and
prospects. As well production facilities have increased significantly and
vehicle production is now 500-plus a year versus under 200 in early 2004.
The company's order backlog is in excess of $20 million. Employee numbers
have increased ten-fold and a trip over to Yahoo to peak at FRCP's headlines
shows that the company is getting more and more quality press and industry
exposure--always a good thing.
A pretty complete discussion of the
prospects for FRCP appeared in our November
29th and December
14th pieces--both worth a read for background.
If,
as, and when FRCP decides to reverse split its shares doesn't really concern
me. Will there be volatility? Sure. This is the smallcap market. Could
the shares sell off? Maybe, but the fundamentals are such that any nastiness
would likely be short-lived. The war isn't getting any easier, the need
for FRCP's type of vehicles will undoubtedly increase as the conflict wears
on and its markets will likely expand as a result of other world tensions.
The company seems to have the support
and the ear of the appropriate state and federal groups, so the potential
for further contracts appear sound. Even though the company is still in
its early stages, the growth to date has been extremely solid. Now, it's
a matter of the share price catching up to the business as well as reflecting
what are, we believe, significant future prospects.
While patience is still the watchword,
FRCP continues to look a good bet for the speculative end of a portfolio.
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