Trade
Updates: Procera Networks, Hansen Natural, Briggs & Stratton
Not
that there's nothing else to talk about (like swine flu, GDP, depleted
inventories, etc.), but while we're able to carve out the time today,
I need to update you on - and cancel - some of the trade suggestions
we've issued lately.
Now,
I don't have the room to review all ten trades we've got posted
on the website, so I'll skip the 'speculative buys' for now and come back
to them later. Today we're going to just look at the open 'technical
trade alerts' (which are short-term ideas), and the 'buys' (which
are longer-term, investment ideas).
Note
that we're canceling one of our buy ratings, as well as pulling the plug
on one of our technical trade alerts.
Still
On the Board
Our
newest recommendation, Procera Networks Inc. (PKT), is technically
considered a speculative buy, but since it's still a fairly new trade for
us I think it's worth an update here.
Our
PKT entry at $0.65 couldn't have come at a better time; the stock rallied
up to $0.92 the next day, and as high as $1.02 within a week. Since
then Procera shares have settled down around $0.92, and seem to be consolidating...
perhaps a wind-up for the next jump.
What
prompted the push after our alert went out? We don't think it was entirely
news-based, as there was no news that perfectly coincided with our recommendation.
We just feel the word is finally getting out. Nevertheless, the announcement
from the 22nd that one of the Ivy League schools was using Procera's technology
certainly didn't hurt the stock.
We
still contend as far as PKT is concerned, you ain't seen nuthin' yet.
There
have been a couple of times since early February we considered dropping
Hansen
Natural Corp. (HANS), frustrated with its lack of traction. Good thing
we didn't.
HANS
finally moved in a big way late last week, from $37.15 to $39.48 last Thursday,
and then up to $41.20 today. All told, we're now up about 17.5% since our
February 6th entry. That's not "buy a Ferrari" kind of money, but
it's not bad considering the market's basically flat since then.
Why
the sudden strength? Great question.
The
only attention Hansen was getting around the time of the breakout was some
positive comments from The Motley Fool (perhaps a reason to worry, considering
fool.com's uncanny ability to be late to a party). Even then
though, it's not like The Motley Fool could have pushed the stock higher
like they did.
No,
we think the HANS pop is 100% organic, which is even better.
Edwards
Lifesciences Corp. (EW) also finally got traction after a long, long
wait. Shares bolted from $57.77 on Monday to a close of $64.62 on Tuesday
after the company reported a triple in Q1 profit, and raised their full-year
guidance.
EW
has retreated to the lower $64 area today, but appears to be holding into
the gain pretty well.
We're
up about 13.6% since our January 16th entry at $56.50. Like our Hansen
Natural gain, that's not a gangbuster performance, but it easily tops the
market's return for the same period.
We
stuck with Agilent Technologies Inc. (A) through a very tough February,
and our patience has been relatively rewarded - the stock is almost
back to where we started with it in mid-January.
Normally
we wouldn't adopt a "it will come back" mentality, as those are
famous last words for too many traders. In Agilent's case though, it was
clear the market's demise was the main cause for Agilent's pullback,
and we were pretty confident the market was poised to rebound. When it
did, so too did Agilent shares.
We're
still not sure if we're going to keep Agilent, but we've got it on the
board until further notice
If
you thought Agilent was an innocent victim of the broad market selloff,
it's even worse for the iShares S&P Preferred Stock Index Fund
(PFF).... it's the same story, on steroids. PFF got rocked between
late January and early March, sliding from a peak of $27.44 to a trough
of $14.10 (-48.6%).
Why? The market was sure all the preferred
stocks held inside the ETF were going to be destroyed - one way or another
- by the government's bailout conditions.
Man
it's a good thing we didn't buy into that hype.
The
iShares S&P Preferred Stock Index Fund has almost reclaimed all
of
that ground, moving to mid-$26 area today. We're back in the black a little
as well, and expect the uptrend to continue.
So
those are the suggested trades we're keeping alive, but what about
the two we're axing?
Pulling
the Plug
We
had high hopes for Briggs & Stratton Corp. (BGG) back in January.
But, earning 51 cents per share last quarter when the market was expecting
64 cents just isn't going to cut it.
The
company's a contradiction in itself to boot. The same day it said it expected
2009 profits to be flat or slightly higher was the same day quarterly earnings
came up short.... and the same day they cut the dividend in half.
The math doesn't quite work based on their current results, and we don't
want to be around if last quarter's contradiction becomes an epidemic.
Molina
Healthcare Inc. (MOH) is the other trade we're yanking. It's not been
bad, but it's not been good either - just flat. Considering it was
a short-term trade and the intended holding period has already passed,
we just want to take this one off the table and focus on more productive
ideas.
That's
it for trade updates today, though clearing the decks now means
we've freed up some time and room for new ideas in the near future.
Stay tuned.
If
you want some trading ideas in the meantime, our community pages are chock
full of 'em. If you've not seen them yet, you should really check
them out.
We've
got them broken down into the three categories below. Just click on the
link to go there.
Latest
Small Cap Stock Analysis
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way, this is just the beginning of the community portion of our site.
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